Open Letter To The Commandant Of The Marine Corps...

Sir.

We've, no scratch that, you've got a problem.  You've seen data that has you transforming the USMC into a form that is unrecognizable to most.  You obviously believe this transformation is necessary in order to "keep pace" with the Chinese.

That's a laudable goal.  If that's what this is about then I applaud you.  However in making this DRAMATIC change you're leaving those you lead behind.

In essence you're failing Change Leadership 101.  You're not getting buy in from those you lead and that will cause chaos, not change.  via Forbes.

A weak culture that isn’t aligned with the mission, lack of participation and buy-in, under-communicating a powerful vision, over-communicating a poor vision, not enough training or resources, and so on. But one very critical roadblock standing in the way of bringing a change vision to fruition is what I call change battle fatigue.

Are you getting the force of connection here?  No?  Then let me break it down Barney style.

I don't buy for one second that the Marine Corps has a weak culture.  To the contrary it's extremely strong.  However that culture has been under attack for over a decade now.

That alone can cause chaos, fatigue and resentment.  Have we had a chance to reset?  To adjust to the change?  No.  It just keeps getting stuffed down throats.  I won't go into whether that change of culture is good or bad.  I will however say that if the Corps was going thru just that it would be a strain.

I do buy lack of participation.  I read the journals, and do my best to keep up with Marine Corps news but this latest move came like a thunderbolt.  Where you and other flag officers operated from solid information, the rank and file was left with rumor.  That's not good.  Remember the old chestnut of keeping your men informed?  Hey cowboy you failed on that one big time.

Communicating your vision?  Again you're substandard.  You're pushing the missile Marine Corps meme but you're failing to explain how dozens of missiles fired from shore will actually influence the sea battle in a favorable way.  Will the Marine Corps buy enough anti-ship missiles to equal what just 3 Burke Class Destroyers can carry?  If not then we're just pin pricks while the beasts rage at sea.  The Chinese already have enough missile boats to assign one to each shore based battery.  I won't even go into aircraft.  I have doubts about modern ISR having difficulty locating those batteries.  Your plan was applauded in think tank world but to the little people it makes no sense!

Change battle fatigue!  This is the big one!  This is the one that you should especially take note of and explain why this time it's different.  Every Commandant since Amos has come up with some weird form of predicting the future battle.  Everyone of them has seen those plans crumble because things are changing so fast.  How can you be sure?  Why should we trust that this time you got it right?  Additionally you're making a huge bet in a time of austerity.  If you're wrong (and to be blunt I think you are) then you're about to cripple the Marine Corps for the next 20 years.

Long story short?

Your Corps is under strain.  Your job is to bring order to chaos, not add to it. Additionally your Corps seems to be adrift.  It's facing attacks from within and without and needs a bearing.  A re-establishment for its reason for being.

It's actually strange to me that an organization that has been winning the nation's battles for over 200 years has to once again not only justify it's existence to the world but to itself but here we are.

My advice?

Take a beat.  Reorient the entire Corps.  If its to your new plan so be it but understand where things currently stand within the Fleet Marine Force.  Battles have been fought overseas, it's culture is being attacked at home, friction is being applied to the whole thing by leadership that is indecisive/always changing and the troops are restless (not even gonna add in the stress from this pandemic!).

Take care of the details with regard to the force and the rest will sort itself out.  Stop striving for transformation when the future is murky at best and evolve the force instead.  Accept the idea that there will be no easy way.  No bloodless battles between great powers.  Tell the leadership that too so we won't get into a stupid war.

Do these things and your tenure will be remembered with fondness not dread. Continue on your course and you will fail.  The last thing the Marine Corps needs is another milk toast Commandant.

Open Comment Post. 26 July 2020

War Between Greece and Turkey Is Now a Real Possibility

WOW.  I've been monitoring the comments and have been noting what I thought was the usual bluster between two ancient enemies but apparently thing are a bit more serious than I thought.  Via National Interest..

Greek and Turkish fighter jets engaged in mock dogfights this week over the Greek island of Kastellorizo, just a mile and a half from the Turkish coast, causing tourists to flee. Meanwhile, there is a growing risk that the Turkish and Greek navies will clash, hundreds of miles to the west if Turkey pushes forward with its plans to survey for has in Greece’s exclusive economic zone. Greek officials say that all options are on the table, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rushed to mediate as U.S. officials remain largely absent.

There has never been any love lost between Turkey and Greece, but the danger of war between the two NATO members has not been this high since the Cyprus conflict more than forty-five years ago. In the past, Turkey and Greece have gone to the brink, but policies initiated by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may very much push the two neighbors over the edge.

In question are two interrelated issues: Erdoğan’s efforts to walk away from the Lausanne Treaty and his increasing desperation to find resources to bail out Turkey’s flagging economy.

The Lausanne Treaty was signed ninety-seven years ago today to tie up loose ends remaining from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. While Kurds lament the treaty for reversing promises of statehood, the Treaty set Turkey’s borders with Bulgaria, Greece, Syria, and Iraq. Whatever flaws came with those borders, the post-Lausanne system enabled nearly a century of stability.

For reasons of ideology, economics, and ego, Erdoğan now seeks to undo the Lausanne Treaty: Ideology because Erdoğan seeks to regain control of certain Ottoman territories and change the demographics of areas outside Turkey’s borders; economics because Turkey seeks to steal resources from recognized Greek and Cypriot exclusive economic zones; and, ego, because Erdoğan wants to top Atatürk’s legacy as a military victor.

Erdoğan has already set the stage for scrapping the Lausanne Treaty. In December 2017, Erdoğan shocked a Greek audience when, on a visit to his neighbor, he floated the idea. Three months later, he suggested that the Bulgarian town of Kardzhali was within Turkey’s “spiritual boundaries,” drawing protests from Bulgaria which at the time held the European Union presidency. State-controlled Turkish newspapers have gotten in on the game showing maps of Turkey with its borders revised at the expense of neighboring states.

His latest post-Lausanne push is his most dangerous. Turkey has dispatched the seismic survey ship Oruc Reis to operate in the waters surrounding Greek islands. Such an action would be both illegal and provocative. Under terms of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Greece claims territorial waters around its islands for exploration and exploitation of marine resources. Turkey is not a UNCLOS member (nor, for that matter, is the United States) but, unlike the United States, Turkey ignores customary law and stands alone in its interpretation.

Here. 

I believe that COVID-19 has caused people to stress in ways that most don't even realize.  For many it's just a bit of weight gain...ya know that stress eating thing. 

But what does this do to nation states?  Could this pandemic make simmering rivalries go hot?

Is it a factor or something totally different?

I don't know.  What I do know is that I'll be watching this stuff a bit more closely now.

15th MEU Assault Amphibious Vehicles conduct sustainment training

Make no mistake.  You're looking at what will be a historic vid.  The Commandant will move with speed to kill AAV/ACV. If you read his plan its obvious they just don't fit with his vision.

This pic has gone viral...

Being a leader is hard because you're always under the microscope.  This pic of Dr Fauci has gone viral and I'm assuming its because he isn't social distancing and he isn't wearing his mask (neither is the lady beside him).

I don't quite know what to make of it.  He's been rather strident in the wearing of masks (which I get) but he also seems to be ignoring something I'd like to be discussed here (if we're even capable of it on this blog).

My worry is the effect that the pandemic is having on the mental health of this nation.  What I wonder is why someone hasn't talked to psychologist to put forward what it takes to help keep a population calm during times like this.

The rioting we're seeing I believe is a result of the pandemic more than it is of any grievance.  All the "Karens" that we're seeing is the same.

Fragile people are breaking and that needs to be taken account of...just like the medical side of this...just like the financial cost.

Latest method being used to evade traffic tickets...

Open Comment Post. 25 July 2020

Chinese Type 99A on exercise.

99A pic.twitter.com/8zFbBBFftD

— 马日天 (@z5J6NWig6ByNnsC) July 24, 2020

Eight Inmates On Death Row In California Prison Die From COVID-19

via IHeartRadioNews.

Eight inmates on death row at San Quentin State Prison in California have died from COVID-19 since June. The virus has killed a total of 15 inmates at the prison, which is struggling to deal with the illness. The jail, the oldest one in California, is experiencing one of the worst outbreaks among the inmate population. Since the coronavirus pandemic began, officials said that roughly two-thirds of the prison population has tested positive for COVID-19.

Officials had early success managing the pandemic, but that changed in May, when several detainees from the California Institution for Men in Chino were transferred to San Quentin. Since then, the prison has recorded more than 2,100 cases of COVID-19. While many patients have recovered, there are currently 866 inmates with active cases of the viral infection.

All of the death row inmates who died were convicted murderers.

I'm searching hard to find the tragedy, shock and/or bad news in this story but for the life of me I can't (pun intended!).

China producing a huge number of vehicles...

SK-181 Ready for delivering
Chinese Dongfeng Mengshi plant assemble the huge number of armored vehicles.#China #PLA #Dongfeng pic.twitter.com/kIAQHrrVRm

— The Dead District (@TheDeadDistrict) July 24, 2020

What will the new Missile Marine Corps do when the Chinese get feet dry?  There will not be enough missiles to prevent a landing.  When you get beyond the posturing of "deterrence" you get down to the business of combat.

If the Chinese aren't deterred can the Missile Marine Corps win on land?

I don't think so.

We're in the Japanese Imperial Army's conundrum (self made) of either stopping them at sea or simply trying to make the battle costly.  Once the Old Corps landed the situation wasn't in doubt.  The Japanese Imperial Army knew they would lose.  The best they could hope for is a bloody battle.

That I fear is the fate of the new Missile Marine Corps.  If they Chinese make it to land (and despite this concept they will), all that can be hoped for is to bloody them badly...even though you know you're gonna lose (unless the 25th ID shows up in time!).

25th ID. Lightning Forge 2020...Warriors In Action

Cinch it down tight boys.  The Army in general and the 25th ID is coming to drink Missile Marine Corps milk shake.  The weird thing.  They've gone from a nice to have in Pacific acting possibly as a strategic reserve to a frontline player.  Where once 3rd MEF and the 2nd ID led the way in Okinawa and Korea respectively, it now seems that the 25th is moving to the front.  Simply amazing.

Spanish Army VCR Dragon 8x8 during testing...Video

Thanks to Toni Hawk for the link!