Hypothetical. If a war with China went sideways and we destroyed 3 Gorges Dam, would that be enough to trigger nuclear retaliation?

 Navy Surface Officers, the old skool dudes, are some blood thirsty bastards.

Why do I say that?

Cdr Salamander over his blog was talking about the dam breach in Ukraine and then pivoted to talking about how if things got sideways in a war with China that we should consider taking out the 3 Gorges Dam.

He went on to say that 400 million people are downstream of that and a quick look at the map shows major cities.

Taking out that dam would be a massive disaster with huge loss of life and property.

It would plunge China into the dark ages.  At least a large portion of it.

Monitoring the conversation on this blog, the discussion is a strike in kind from the Chinese with them hitting the Hoover dam.

Personally I don't think it comes close. 

But let's pivot again.  We're talking about a catastrophe of massive proportions.  Don't you think that under those circumstances the Chinese would simply launch a nuke or three at a couple of our major cities?

I say all that to say this.

The SecDef wants to talk to China so that lines of communication are open.

I think he's totally misreading the Chinese.  The US wants war but wants a "moderated" war but I don't think the Chinese are viewing it that way.

Do you hear all the talk of competition with the Chinese?  The grey zone talk?  

I personally believe that if it comes to war the Chinese will bang their fangs into the floorboard and come at us with everything they got short of nukes.  I don't think they'll pause until they've achieved their goals and I believe they'll be in it for the long run (which makes their manufacturing capacity concerning...we need to nationalize large caliber gun and missile production NOW).

If the fight is over Taiwan and they're initially repulsed I think they'll keep feeding units into the fight and make it war of attrition.  If the fight is over rubble and dead bodies then so be it for them.  Its the goal that's important.  They'll rebuild after they take it.

Bottom line.  Don't think a war with China will be easy.  They're determined, they're smart and they're disciplined.  No they're not 10 feet tall and we can take them.  But if the powers that be know its coming then they need to up the game fast.  

Misconceptions and missteps can lead to terrible outcomes for all involved...on both homelands.

Bayraktar TB2 SİHA is the new hotness in unmanned aircraft. 30 countries have signed export agreements.

🔴BAYKAR'dan 30'dan fazla ülkeye ihracat!

💢"Bayraktar TB2 SİHA için şu ana kadar 30 ülkeyle, Bayraktar AKINCI TİHA için ise 6 ülkeyle ihracat anlaşması imzalandı."

💢Sırada, geliştirme faaliyetleri devam eden KIZILELMA İnsansız Savaş Uçağı var@Selcuk @haluk @BaykarTech pic.twitter.com/FVd3lo6ytu

— SavunmaSanayiST.com (@SavunmaSanayiST) June 6, 2023

Finland's Coastal Brigade @ Atrain 23

 

Tiesitkö, että jopa 85 prosenttia Suomen viennistä ja tuonnista kulkee meriteitse? Näiden meriyhteyksien turvaaminen ja rannikoiden puolustaminen on Merivoimien keskeisimpiä tehtäviä. Tehtävää harjoiteltiin Rannikkoprikaatin johtamana Atrain 23 -pääsotaharjoituksessa. pic.twitter.com/475dhW02aj

— Puolustusvoimat (@Puolustusvoimat) June 7, 2023

The problem is the kid who gets $6 a day in food stamps via Reddit

Yeah I warned that the idea of increasing defense spending and with the aid to Ukraine grabbing all the headlines, that it was a terrible idea for the Republicans to be going after domestic spending at home. They didn't listen (they don't come to this blog so how could they hear?) and now we see the creeping pushback that will rise to a crescendo during the 2024 Presidential Election. Another unforced error. It's almost like they don't want to win.

 

Oh and who is Warren Gunnels?  Majority Staff Director.  In other words he's the man behind the curtain pulling strings.  Consider him one of your overlords that really runs our Empire.

 

Russia has the most to gain from damn breach?

 

Thanks to Duke 7 for the link!

Military briefing: Russia has most to gain from Ukrainian dam breach https://t.co/yGK8RzIcQp

— Financial Times (@FT) June 6, 2023

I'm showing what a scrub I was. It never even crossed my mind to use dams as a weapon of war. Yeah I've read about the dam busters. I read about US Navy aviation taking out dams in the Korean war. But it never occurred to me that it would be used in this day and age. How naive on my part. Anyway I'm still digesting this. Might take a sec cause like I said. I never even considered the possibility (even though we had been warned about it earlier).

Whoa! CDR Salamander said it out loud!

 via CDR Salamander

One little note on dambusting on the other side of Asia. As I started pointing out three years ago, should war break out with the People’s Republic of China and things start to get much larger and concerning for our side - i.e. not a limited war - then remember that the PRC created a huge critical vulnerability at the heart of her economic system - over 400 million of her most productive citizens live downstream from the Three Gorges Dam.

If we don’t have that plan already on the shelf, the entire planning staff in DC should be invited to pursue excellence elsewhere.

Wow.

Always told my guys.  Fuck with squiddies but don't FUCK with squiddies.

This dude is diabolical.

I went to his site to get his thoughts on the damn strike(?) in Ukraine and yeah he talked about it but then veered onto this subject.

Can you imagine if the war was going sideways for us against China and we crushed this dam?

It would go nuclear or at least it would be talked about.

Hell even his recommended course of action to retaliate is pushing the boundaries (at least to me) in Ukraine.

 As I pointed out last month when the dam was first damaged (and this breach may very well be a result of that damage, time will tell) I reminded everyone that dambusting has always been one of Sal’s favorite Alt-COAs.

I am sure by now the Ukrainian General Staff is aware of the Tsimlyansk Reservoir formed by the damming of the Don River at Michurinets well inside Russia and athwart many of the GLOC to the front.

At 321 km from Donetsk, well within range of Storm Shadow.

Send 20. Send a message.

I thought I could get blood thirsty but this dude wants to tap an artery and drink his fill.

Interesting article by Sal.  He is worth a follow. 

80 Years On, It's Unclear the U.S. Would Win a New Battle of Midway via Time

 Bottom Line Up Front.  The US Navy is screwed up.  It is rudderless and doesn't appear to have a plan on how to fight and win at sea against the Chinese.

via Time

Today, the order that these men helped to create is once again under threat, and it is not clear that the U.S. would win a second battle of Midway. For the first time since World War II, the West faces a serious naval challenge in the Pacific. The People’s Republic of China—a communist dictatorship—poses both an ideological threat and a strategic one. It has built a large oceangoing navy with a growing carrier capability; the first domestically built aircraft carrier is expected to enter service in 2023. In fact, according to a U.S. Department of Defense report in 2020, the PRC now boasts “the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships.” It menaces Taiwan directly and has established a massive military presence in the contested South China Sea. Beyond this, Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” which seeks to transform the whole of Eurasia, and the maritime “String of Pearls” concept, which attempts something similar in the Indo-Pacific, shows the PRC’s vaulting ambition.

Over the past few years, the United States and the rest of the Western world generally have slowly been waking up to this reality. In February 2016, Admiral Harry Harris, chief of US Pacific Command, warned Congress that he believed that “China seeks hegemony in East Asia.” In April last year, the Australian secretary for home affairs, Michael Pezzullo, announced that the “drums of war” were beating in the Pacific and that the nation needed to prepare accordingly. As for the PRC, leader Xi Jinping has warned advisers to “prepare for war” in the South China Sea.

Here 

The main difference between the US today and the US then is that the society is much softer now.

Much more divided.  Much more distracted by triviality.

China's population appears to more united, more patriotic and more focused on their goal.

If war was to happen tonight who would be on our side?  Japan and Australia.  The Europeans are frozen by the fight in Ukraine. S. Korea has an issue with N. Korea that they have to keep a lid on.  New Zealand would offer support but little else.

So a Japan/US/Australia naval and air battle vs the Chinese navy and air force...who would win?

If the fight is over Taiwan and is limited to just that area then the Chinese by a mile.  They're fighting in their home waters and we dare not hit their mainland out of fear of widening the war.

China has the initiative.  They can pick the time of the fight, they can decide how expansive it will be.

They're holding all the cards in this thing.  A defensive fight is almost always a losing fight.  It like the Maginot line but in the modern day.

Republicans are playing a dangerous game. Domestic spending cuts while increasing defense/Ukraine spending

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announces he is assembling “a commission” to look at potential cuts in entitlement programs:

“The president walled off all the others. The majority driver of the budget is mandatory spending. It’s Medicare, Social Security, interest on the debt.” pic.twitter.com/vm3jUuL6fO

— The Recount (@therecount) May 31, 2023

You cut at home while increasing Ukrainian aid to obscene levels? At the same time you want to increase spending for a war against China that is no threat to the homeland?

I don't agree with the policies but I can understand it.

Do you think our fellow Americans will?

This is a dangerous game and they're going to have to EFFECTIVELY communicate it.  By effective I mean they better not run to the "defending freedom" talking point cause that dawg don't hunt no more.

Chinese Air Combat Simulation (appears to contain most new missile types)

 

Wonderful air combat simulation animation.😎
(CG by wb/家有神兽) pic.twitter.com/2pcJRJF7Yh

— 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) June 6, 2023

Open Comment Post. 6 June 23

 

Posted on r/army on Reddit. Are we, the Soldiers, ready for "real" war?

 Are we, the Soldiers, ready for “real” war?

BLUF: After 20 plus years of absolute dominance of the battle space, in regards to aerial, medical, sensor, intelligence and response/QRF forces from mega bases against a limited insurgency, are our SMs emotionally, physically and mentally ready to live and die in the mud, if a conflict resembles Ukraine today.

Note: I’ll be changing some small details of this story to protect the person.

I was recently traveling through an international airport that, with effort, could be used to transit to Ukraine. Killing time in the airport I noticed a man sleeping amongst the seats. This dudes clothes, kit and raggedy demeanor screamed dead exhausted.

I couldn’t help but notice when he woke up, he woke up fast hard and reached out for something that wasn’t there. Exactly how I constantly checked for my weapon in basic in that goofy way everyone knows.

Hearing him take a call, I could tell he was American.

I introduced myself and just started making that airport single serving friend small talk.

He was an Iraqi ( surge era ) vet who was also a recent returnee from Ukraine. Dude didn’t want to give any of this up, wasn’t braggy and tbh if I didn’t know what to ask for or about I would have missed most of the context. I had a feeling he was relived talking to another American military dude but was quiet, a bit awkward and the opposite of most of the volunteer returnees I had read about.

We had the same connection location and I saw him again at the layover. Over food, he opened up a bit about the fighting.

Long story short, he was terrified and was leaving the fight because of it.

He painted a picture of crushing incoming mortar and artillery fire, Lack of medical response and trench warfare similar to WW1. Flanking enemy positions, clearing trenches by banging them out and finding them refilled the next day with new enemy soldiers.

He had seen some shit during Iraq, ( and his timeline and my Iraqi experience validated a lot of this ) and apparently Ukraine was shocking and overwhelming, more than he imagined or felt ready for.

Dude just wanted to get home.

We parted ways, I told him I wished him luck and to see help if needed and he just sorta nodded, telling me he just wanted to get home.

After all that, I had a long ass flight to think about my war time experiences and how different they were.

Near instant MEDEVAC, constant radio connectivity and C2, 6 different aerial platforms in the stack waiting to be called on. Having a wild night when there was 6-7 inaccurate mortars that hit close by, not on, close. Nightly FaceTime sessions from the USO.

No peer threat, small percentage of loss of combat power or of fellow troops,

I guess what I’m asking after all that is what would our transition from 20 years of GWOT be on our morale, mental and physical state? Would we be ready?

It's here if you want to read some of the comments.  Full disclosure.  The patriotic flag waving kinda pissed me off.  The spectator effect is strong with some in this crowd.

The story itself captured my attention and I couldn't help but think that the person being described (here I go playing doctor from thousands of miles away) was displaying classic symptoms of what was once called "shell shocked".

But except for the poor bastards in the Marine Littoral Regiments this will be a naval/air battle in the Pacific.

The horrors will be totally different.

Trapped below decks and burning/drowning before they can get out and you being on the otherside of the hatch hearing the screams.

Assuming you make it off the ship the idea of spending days (hopefully if you're lucky) in the open ocean watching your shipmates getting picked off one by one by groups of sharks that are attracted to the blood in the water.

Even commanders will face life altering decisions.  Do you preserve that surviving destroyer or do you make a sortie to try and save the crew from the carrier that was sunk.

Even politicians.  They could have provided proper oversight but didn't so the Navy never got its shit together.

A war in the Pacific will be different and will bring a totally different set of shit show.

To answer the Soldiers question. No.  The entire DoD isn't ready. They're politically correct but politically correct doesn't win wars.

Bonus.  It just occurred to me that the Iranians firing missile barrages at our troops in Iraq is a good primer on how ground forces will suffer in a real peer vs peer war.  You'll have to multiply what the Iranians did by 1000 but you get the idea.  

Make it make sense! The GW Carrier Strike Group is operating under NATO command when we just had a naval incident with our primary threat?

The world’s largest aircraft carrier, 🇺🇸 USS Gerald R. Ford, is now under #NATO command - a sign of transatlantic strength & unity 🤝@Warship_78 is taking part in maritime security activities in the Norwegian Sea 🌊

➡️ https://t.co/DkF5IWlz2Q pic.twitter.com/jcM1GMTA44

— Oana Lungescu (@NATOpress) June 5, 2023

Mark my words and this time I won't mince them. Our euro-centric focus and desire to re-run the cold war with a nod toward finally getting the fight with the USSR/Russia will cost us! Why are we having carriers deploy to the N. Atlantic? It is NOT a "naval" theater! I can barely make the argument for the US Army to have as large a footprint there, but at least it makes sense. It's past time to refocuse our Navy (the USMC can learn to walk up walls but a naval battle means its really a US Navy/US Air Force affair!) on the "stated" threat and get them sorted out. If the Navy isn't grabbed by the short hairs and starts doing the hard stuff instead of the visually/politically appealing stuff then any war with China will be lost before its started.

Sidenote.  Spare me this unity and strength talk too.  It's old.  It's tired.  It's a freaking lie.  NATO is just a jobs program for elites.  Too many bureaucrats, not enough forces.

Nazi symbols on Ukraine's troops is an issue....

Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History https://t.co/6NF8N7kTZ6

— Solomon (@SnafuBlogspot) June 5, 2023

I told you everthing I could see from Biden indicated that he needed to be at home. This diplomat source confirms it.

"One diplomatic source tells me Biden was so tired at the recent G7 summit in Japan that he could barely speak. They described this once fulsome, energetic man as “just not really there.”

Stunning (but not surprising) report on Biden's unfitness for office in @thetimes of London

— steve hilton (@SteveHiltonx) June 5, 2023

The President of the United States will be lucky to survive this term in office. He is fading before our eyes. I can see it, if you're honest you can see it. The problem is that his wife is so drunk with power, along with his staff and hanger's on that they don't give a fuck. The job is killing that man and no one will step forward to save him from himself. Sad and pathetic. The people surrounding Biden are devils in the bibical sense of the word.

Russian defense ministry says that the Ukrainians have launched a large scale offensive operation in S. Donetsk direction

Rob Lee does a good job of giving a balanced view of this war. He is a must follow. He's a bit more hooked into the "establishment" than I would like but still appears to play it straight (mostly).

The Russian MoD says that Ukraine began a large-scale offensive in the South Donetsk direction this morning.https://t.co/7uzZDmCgF2 pic.twitter.com/gSt61l7otf

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 4, 2023

Future South Korean carrier strike group concept from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries [2048 x 1072]...via Reddit

 

Future South Korean carrier strike group concept from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries [2048 x 1072]
by u/rokarmedforces in MilitaryPorn

Something weird is going on between Wagner PMC & Russian conventional forces

Wagner captured a russian lieutenant colonel who shot at their car. When asked "Why did you shoot at us?" he answers: "Because I don't like you"
by u/Hm450 in UkraineWarVideoReport

If this happened (couldn't imagine) between a US PMC & Conventional Forces I would think that the PMC would (1) get lit the fuck up or (2) told to pack their shit. Why this thing with Wagner has been allowed to fester for so long is beyond me. The leader of Wagner makes all kinds of statements that if I was leading Russian Defense would consider traitorous and now this?

Either a massive game is being played in the open or the Russian military is gonna have to confront Wagner.

This will be a mess.  Bad timing for them too.  The Ukrainians are coming.

Ukraine Defense Ministry says Russia launched 381 drone and 185 missile strikes

russia spent the month of May trying to terrorize us with drones and missiles. They failed. pic.twitter.com/PMIny1aUyz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 4, 2023

Well that explains why the US would go to the legnths of buying Gepard Anti-Air Vehicles from Jordan and the rest of the allies sending more anti-air systems.

Kyrgyzstan Special Services are detaining individuals regarding an alleged coup

 

In #Kyrgyzstan, special services are detaining participants in an alleged coup d'état.

There are no details yet, as well as official information. pic.twitter.com/kJ8RYYDj5D

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 5, 2023

The amazing story of Poon Lim

 

Poon Lim, a courageous Chinese sailor, demonstrated remarkable survival skills during his harrowing experience at sea. He endured an astonishing 133 days alone on a raft, employing various strategies to sustain himself. Resourcefulness became his key to staying alive, as he… pic.twitter.com/fT9zFJLFHY

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) June 5, 2023

Read the entire tweet. This is an amazing story. More at Wikipedia here