Thursday, November 20, 2014

105mm Mobile Gun System program begins...


via Janes
A Brazilian Army programme to buy one prototype 105 mm turreted gun system, with the option for a pilot batch of about 13 systems, is expected to attract bids from several international companies.
Interested firms have until late December to formally issue a proposal, a source close to the programme told IHS Jane's on 17 November.
The source said that so far ARES Aeroespacial e Defesa (incorporating a 105mm gun of Israel Military Industries), China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO), CMI Defence, Denel Land Systems, and OTO Melara have obtained the Request for Proposal (RfP) issued by the army on 7 November.
This is freaking embarrassing.

Let me remind you of some unpleasant history.

The USMC started the Marine Personnel Carrier Program in 2008.  Killed it in 2012, revived it and in the video Amphibious Combat Vehicle Modernization stated that it COULD enter service as soon as 2019.  The video definitively stated that the AAV Upgrade program WOULD start in 2019.

In much less time the Brazilians will have their entire allotment of VBTP-MR's, will be well on the way to the 8x8 version and the 105mm Mobile Gun System will be getting their barrels shot out.

Embarrassing doesn't cut it.  This is humiliating.  Why can the Brazilians get it done but the USMC can't?

Canadian Exercise Steele Sabre...






Didn't know the Canadians still operated the Leopard C2's along with the C2A4's.

Pic of the day. B-1B Bomber doin' work!


Japanese F-35, MV-22 buy in jeopardy...this is why you follow economic issues!


via CNN
Tokyo (CNN) -- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called for snap parliamentary elections for next month, following news that the country had slipped into a recession.
Abe also announced an 18-month delay in a controversial sales tax hike during a press conference Tuesday.
That's the first paragraph of the article.  What follows should send chills up the spine of defense corporations selling the F-35, the program office and MV-22 fanboys....
The prime minister said he will dissolve the parliament's lower house on Friday.
The Japanese economy slipped into recession in the third quarter.
Basically the Japanese Prime Minister just did to the Japanese govt, what the US public did to the Obama administration.

They got rolled.

Slobber-knocked.

Repudiated.

But why this matters is because with the Japanese economy slipping back into recession, the defense buildup that Abe was pushing is now dead in the water.

This is why you follow economic issues if you're interested in defense.  But the Japanese shouldn't feel bad.  The same is coming to our shores.  Defense analyst, Congressional analyst and Senators/Representatives themselves have all said the same.

Sequestration will continue.

The ramp up of F-35 production WILL NOT HAPPEN.

The death spiral is here.

SIDENOTE: Have you been paying attention to the long shore-man's slowdown in Los Angeles?  This will not be a booming Christmas as some predicted.  Retailers have already missed delivery windows from China.  Because of that China will continue to slow.  Germany is already in recession and the bad news will arrive at our shores soon enough.  2015 will not be a good year.  My prediction?  2014 was just a break from bad economic news.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

I just figured out what turns me off about the President's executive order on immigration...

If you watch the news then you're well aware that the President is going to announce his executive order  on illegal immigration.

I've heard the talking heads on both sides and while I believe his actions are illegal, I can see how they can "stretch" enough to think (meaning fool enough Americans) that the actions are good to go.

Put that aside for one minute.

I could look at this as being politics as usual for the Democrat party, but that isn't what has me turned off heading toward punching walls about this whole thing.

We have people that are in our country illegally demanding that we change our laws and allow them to profit from their illegality!

How do you maintain a nation of laws when those laws can be so easily put aside?  People that are not even citizens have gotten the attention of the President and he's about to act on their behalf while poll after poll shows that the American people are most concerned about the economy?

This is what he turns his attention to after being soundly defeated at the polls just a few weeks ago?

We're screwed.

Marine Corps Ship to Objective Maneuver is no longer valid.


A short conversation with USMC 0802 led me to this conclusion.  The USMC labored hard to produce a doctrine that is completely null and void.  In short the Ship to Objective Maneuver concept (STOM) is no longer valid.

Reference the video of the hour...ACV Ground Modernization.  One of the bullet points from the video is to use LCACs and JHSVs to carry the ACV from the sea base (which could be located up to and over 100 miles offshore) to a launch point approx 3 miles off shore and then they will do an "in stream" launch of the vehicles.

Think about that for one minute.

We're going to send LCACs and JHSVs...and possibly even updated LCUs into an area that is so heavily defended that we won't send our combat capable amphibious ships.  So instead we send these thin skinned, unarmed surface transports in!

That's insanity!

But it gets worse.  If you're a "seagoing 101st" Marine Corps advocate then consider the planning necessary to setup a corridor for the MV-22 to get to the LZ.  Not only will you have to knock out any and all anti-air capable systems (this will range from S-500/400/300 to shoulder launched missiles, to RPGs and then small arms) but you will also have to escort the V-22s to the landing area.  Remember that the MV/CV-22 had its skirt raised in Africa not too long ago when Navy SEALs flying aboard it got chewed up and they're lucky to not have died.  They only suffered terrible injuries...injuries so bad that they had to do an inflight blood transfusion to save the wounded.

But back to the insertion.  Marine planners have found that the AH-1Z is too slow to keep up with the V-22 and the F-35/Harriers are too fast.  So before you even get to mission planning on objective you have a tremendous logistical challenge to solve....and thats just with the aircraft involved.  Do you launch your V-22's first and have the F-35's arrive just before touch down?  Do you need to sanitize the area first?  What is your loiter time for close air support?  Oh and want a savage kick in the pants?  The average MEU will not have enough Fast Movers to maintain an effective cap and if the MEU/sea base is operating anywhere from 60-100 or more miles off shore then AH-1Zs will not be able to arrive to help with the work (Google the effective range and loiter time of a fully loaded Viper...you will be unpleasantly surprised)!

And then finally we get to the last leg of the STOM triad.  The EFV or as they call it now the ACV.  We've gone from having the Marine Personnel Carrier being a surrogate vehicle to it now becoming the actual replacement for the AAV!  What do we get for the inability to carry a full strength Marine Rifle Squad in each vehicle?

We get a ride that is wheeled (and I have yet to see documentation that wheels can go where tracks can), carries half the number of Marines that an AAV can, can go through the water at the same speed and is supposedly more mine resistant by virtue of it having higher ground clearance.

We labored hard to produce the Ship to Objective Maneuver concept but didn't do the work of seeing how the pieces would all fit together.

As much as I like the Havoc and SuperAV.  As much as I'm warming to the Terrex 2.  One thing is obvious and Marine Land is gonna hate me for it.

We need to fucking stop.

Think about the possible.

Think about the now.

And re-do our entire concept of operations.  The real answer is the old answer.  We are going to have to roll back enemy defenses.  We are going to have to have the US Navy big deck carriers on deck.  We are going to need major support from the Surface Navy.

If it is a contested landing...even if we land where they ain't...modern enemy defenses require that we neutralize the threat before we send forces ashore.

Old skool Marines know this.  We thought we knew better than they did and we were wrong.  We were so wrong.

NOTE:  Hindsight is 20/20.  When the EFV program collapsed, so did the STOM concept.  It got buried when the former Commandant started his diatribe of operating up to 100 miles off shore.  While I'm positive it was an attempt to explain his vacillation and indecision on the ACV...while at the same time promoting the use of the V-22, it instead condemned the Marine Corps to a delay in getting its messaging and doctrine straight.  STOM is dead.  The USMC family just needs to accept it.

Defense One Summit Live!

A little birdy landed on my window sill and told me I needed to keep one eye on the Defense One Summit today.  You can catch it live here (they're live streaming it) but below is a quick "run down" of events/topics...

Agenda
7:15-8:00 AM: Registration and networking
8:00-8:40 AM: Breakfast Sessions
Session 1: The Potential and Peril of the Future Robot Army
A discussion on the advantages, pitfalls and ethical implications of autonomous systems and artificial intelligence in modern warfare.
Speakers:

- Ramez Naam, Futurist, Computer Scientist, Author and Futurist, Singularity University
- Michael Horowitz, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Pennsylvania
Moderator: Patrick Tucker, Technology Editor, Defense One
Session 2: CEO Breakfast:Defense Industry CEO’s talk about how defense businesses are evolving for the new era of national security.
Speakers:
- William “Bill” Lynn III, CEO, Finmeccanica North America andDRS Technologies, Inc.
- Ellen Lord, President and CEO, Textron Systems
Moderator: Marcus Weisgerber, Global Business Reporter, Defense One
9:00-9:30 AM: The Future of the U.S. NavyRethinking the Navy’s priorities—and its people—for the age of terrorism and global conflict.
Speaker: Chief of Naval Personnel Vice Adm. William Moran
Moderator: Stephanie Gaskell, Executive Editor, Defense One
9:30-10:00 AM: Rethinking the Army of the FutureHow Russia, ISIS and money changes the U.S. defense budget, force structure and role of conventional ground forces.
Speaker: U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray OdiernoModerator: Tom Bowman, Pentagon Reporter, NPR
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: War Powers in the Age of Terrorism
Speakers:
- Senator Tim Kaine, D-Va.- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif.Moderator: Molly O’Toole, Politics Reporter, Defense One.
10:35-11:20 AM: Spotlight Sessions
11:20-12:05 PM: Lunch Keynote
Speaker: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey12:05-12:50 PM: On the Purpose of the Military
A conversation with the chairman about Iraq, today’s conflict and how the U.S. military should be used to meet America’s national security commitments.
Speaker: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin DempseyModerator: Kevin Baron, Executive Editor, Defense One
12:50-1:20 PM: Dessert and Networking/Solutions Lab
1:20-2:05 PM: Spotlight Sessions
2:05-2:45 PM: Keeping America Safe
A discussion on intelligence, cyber spying and counterterrorism.
Speaker: Michael Vickers, Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence
Moderator: Gordon Lubold, Senior Military Reporter/Editor, Defense One
2:45-3:15 PM: Conflict, Military Intervention and International InstitutionsSpeaker: Samantha Power, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Moderator: Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations and Author of The Dressmaker of Khair Khana
3:15-3:30 PM: Networking Break
3:30-4:00 PM: Cyberwarfare Defense

A discussion on the future of military robotics, defending the Internet of Things from cyberwar and looking beyond the electronics horizon for modern warfare.
Speaker: Arati Prabhakar, Director, Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency
Moderator: Patrick Tucker, Technology Editor, Defense One
4:00-4:30 PM: The Offset Strategy
Robert Work, Deputy Secretary of Defense, looks at how the U.S.will retain its technological edge in the coming decades.
Speaker: Robert Work, Deputy Secretary of Defense

Moderator: Marcus Weisgerber, Global Business Reporter
4:30-4:40 PM: Closing Remarks
Send us a tweet @DefenseOne if you have any questions during the day.
I'll be tuning in to see what Work has to say.  The guy is going to be a player and he made a comment about forward deployed versus surge forces that many ignored but I believe will dramatically affect current Marine Corps operations...specifically the SPMAGTF-CR.  More on that later.  If I have time I'll tune into what Dempsey is saying but all the hope I had for his tenure has dissipated.  He is simply another politician in uniform.  On second thought, I think I'll be skipping his talks.

Did you notice anything?

The Marine Corps and USAF are not represented in this discussion.  I thought that perhaps the Navy would be pinch hitting for us but the speaker seems to be focused on Navy centric topics.  Why the USMC and USAF would either not be invited or choose not to participate is puzzling.  I don't know if it means anything but I'll be chewing on that one for a bit.