2CAV welcome to Townsville

USAF Aviators talk about a "Super" F-35...

Thanks to Slowman for the link!

via The National Interest...

Operational Air Force pilots with air superiority fighter experience were less than enthusiastic about the prospect of the F-35 replacing the Raptor or F-15. “I hope they get that we need to be well beyond the F-35 in the future and recycling a ramped up proposal isn't going to be good enough,” one senior officer said.
Another added that it was physically impossible for the F-35 to match, much less replace, the F-22. “F-35s will never be able to sit at the table with F-22s in the realm of air-to-air and SEAD/DEAD [suppression of enemy air defenses/destruction of enemy air defenses],” the senior Air Force pilot said. “Doesn't have the performance, doesn't have the payload, doesn't have the stealth.”

&

Another highly experienced F-22 pilot was equally unenthused about the prospect of an advanced F-35 derivative—even if that new variant was equipped with an advanced adaptive cycle engine. “That would be a really bad idea unless they finally got enough thrust with two engines!!” the pilot said. “It is an underpowered airplane from what I hear from my bros flying the jet. But, we have leveraged our tactical aviation future on this aircraft, so I guess we have to like it...”

And there you have it.  Real USAF Air Force pilots are finally being heard about the F-35.

Doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement to me.  Personally I'm thrilled.  Propaganda and a massive marketing campaign are giving way to an honest appraisal of what we're betting the future of a great nation to.

Sidenote:  I await with great anticipation the spin that Second Line of Defense Blog tries to put on this article!  

The Sony Picture fiasco explains why we need to understand the Pacific.

Hollywood is going crazy about the capitulation by Sony Picture Entertainment.  If you haven't heard the story, the short version is that they caved in to N. Korean hackers.

What Hollywood and the news media are missing is that Sony isn't a mult-national in the US style.  They're a Japanese firm with a few US figure heads.

They have Asian sensibilities and will act accordingly.

That means that they will move to save "face".  They will not readily accept being embarrassed publicly.

That's why Sony agreed to the demands of these "terrorist" hackers.

The US military would be advised to make note of this incident and consider it carefully in future moves into the Pacific.  You push a country into a corner in that region of the world and the reaction will be totally different than what we would normally expect.  Historically many of our toughest fights have occurred in this region and I expect the trend to continue into the future.

Saving face, not bringing shame to the name of your family and a whole slew of what many progressive Americans would consider old fashioned values are alive and well there.  Yeah.  I hope the US military is paying attention.

Russia economic crisis tidbits...UPDATE

This is another in a series of articles on the crisis in Russia and why I think it will end badly.

First up is a vid from CNN...



I don't know the guys name but the Brit gives the best and simplest overview of the economic troubles in Russia.  Did you notice that he said it was both political and economic?  Remember that.

Next is this report from Business Insider note that the date is August of this year...

As-Safir said Prince Bandar pledged to safeguard Russia's naval base in Syria if the Assad regime is toppled, but he also hinted at Chechen terrorist attacks on Russia's Winter Olympics in Sochi if there is no accord.

''I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the Games are controlled by us,'' he allegedly said.

Prince Bandar went on to say that Chechens operating in Syria were a pressure tool that could be switched on and off.

''We use them in the face of the Syrian regime but they will have no role in Syria's political future.''

President Putin has long been pushing for a global gas cartel, issuing the ''Moscow Declaration'' last month to ''defend suppliers and resist unfair pressure''.

Mr Skrebowski said it is unclear what the Saudis can really offer the Russians on gas, beyond using leverage over Qatar and others to cut output of liquefied natural gas.

Prince Bandar is an old skool operator.

Whats new is that the a global commodity is being manipulated by governments (ok, its not really new at all but this is the most overt example of it...remember the American people have been sold the bill of goods that its a free market) and in this case a small country that is dealing with a regional problem!

I liken this to the United States suddenly throwing the entire world into turmoil and affecting another nation because, for example, Mexico isn't help stem illegal migration across the border.

Its just that crazy!

Whats even more troubling and should immediately be verified by major news is the claim that Saudi Arabia is sponsoring Chechen terrorists.

If thats the case then sanctions should be slapped on Saudi Arabia not only by Russia but by the US and EU.

Saudi Arabia putting on this price squeeze.  The US must have given its blessing.  The EU must be involved in allowing it to proceed....and a Russian Bear being pushed into a corner.  And all this has been in motion since August of this year!

Do you really think this will end well?

UPDATE (special hat tip to Bayou Man for the links):  Some have expressed the idea that the Saudi action is aimed at the US.  I've come to the conclusion that its bullshit.  Don't believe me?  Check out whats happening to emerging markets, via the Telegraph...

The US Federal Reserve has pulled the trigger. Emerging markets must now brace for their ordeal by fire.
They have collectively borrowed $5.7 trillion in US dollars, a currency they cannot print and do not control. This hard-currency debt has tripled in a decade, split between $3.1 trillion in bank loans and $2.6 trillion in bonds. It is comparable in scale and ratio-terms to any of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries.
Much of the debt was taken out at real interest rates of 1pc on the implicit assumption that the Fed would continue to flood the world with liquidity for years to come. The borrowers are "short dollars", in trading parlance. They now face the margin call from Hell as the global monetary hegemon pivots.
The Fed dashed all lingering hopes for leniency on Wednesday. The pledge to keep uber-stimulus for a "considerable time" has gone, and so has the market's security blanket, or the Fed Put as it is called. Such tweaks of language have multiplied potency in a world of zero rates.

You want that barney style?  Whoever bet on a weak dollar is about to screwed...royally screwed.

Want more?  Check this out from the BBC on North Sea Oil....

The UK's oil industry is in "crisis" as prices drop, a senior industry leader has told the BBC.
Oil companies and service providers are cutting staff and investment to save money.
Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, told the BBC that the industry was "close to collapse".
Almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel, he claims.
'Everyone is retreating'
"It's almost impossible to make money at these oil prices", Mr Allan, who is a director of Premier Oil in addition to chairing Brindex, told the BBC. "It's a huge crisis."

I never took the time to add one other fact to my theory about globalization being a contraption built to fail.

It depends on a weak dollar.

Any move that strengthens the dollar pulls another thread on the globalization scheme.  Any real effort to lower the debt?  Globalization takes a hit.  Any effort to become energy independent?  Globalization is in trouble.

But back to the original subject.  With all these moving parts do you really believe that this will end well?  Do you think that they will be able to "get things" back to normal now that prices have been allowed to fall?  Do you think that people are spending more or just maybe they're using the breathing space to get down debt and maybe frugality isn't in fashion but neither is extravagant spending....and that's in developed countries.  BRIC nations are in a hurt locker.  Developed nations are in full panic mode.

We'll be lucky to avoid a war.

French Air Special Operations Forces.

Note:  Translation is letting me down on this one.  Any French speaker click here to go to the site to help me out...I think these are French Air Force Special Ops but not entirely sure..

Note 1:  "Bryaxis" gave this synopsis of the event...

28 commandos from the CPA 10 (Airborne Commando of the Air) have been training in Corsica, from the BA 126 Ventiseri-Solenzara. They had to exercize both for ground operations (motorized patrol and urban warfare) and in cooperation with airplanes (assault landing with planes from the 3/61 "Poitou" transport squadron) and helicopters ( helicopter borne assault with the 3/67 helicopter squadron "Pyrénées" and 1/44 helicopter squadron "Solenzara"), with support of the logistic departement of airbase 126.
The training seems to have been the "general" training for 17 new recruits, before they are sent to specialized training for the various subgroups of CPA 10 : they were coached by 11 trainers.

Note 2:  Most of the time when you see blurred images of Special Ops personnel its done by bloggers and not the Department of Defense.  Why so many choose to do such a thing is beyond me.  If the services, SOCOM and DoD don't see a reason to do so then why should a blogger?  This time you see the French have actually done the deed.  That's new.  Are they aware of increased threats to personnel?  Is the possibility of attack so great that training inside France itself requires such precautions?

Hezbollah disbands foreign operations unit.

via Jerusalem Online.

Hezbollah has disbanded its foreign operations unit, according to reports in the Kuwaiti daily Al Roi. The disbanding occurs following reports that Hezbollah has captured a Mossad spy that was working inside the unit.
The agent is only known by the name MS. He was a member of the senior level 910 unit operating outside of Lebanon. He was arrested a few weeks ago and it was not published how he was caught.
MS worked as a businessman outside of Lebanon. The Mossad recruited him while he was working in western Asia. According to the report, he was working for the Israeli intelligence agency for several years while also playing a senior level role in Hezbollah at the same time. He reported to his superiors Hezbollah plans to harm Israeli targets around the world.

Hezbollah has effectively been neutralized while Israel sorts out its domestic politics.  I don't know if you've been paying attention but Netanyahu has been re-organizing his government and I actually expected some type of military action from Hezbollah...especially after the Palestinian Minister died.

Now?

They're frozen in place trying to clear out real or suspected Israeli spies.

If I didn't know better I'd wonder if Mossad gave this guy up so that they'd be focused inward instead of plotting against Israel.

C-5M...the forgotten heavy lifter...

The C-5M Super Galaxy aircraft is a game changer to the warfighter and America’s premier global direct delivery weapons system. It is also the Air Force’s only true strategic airlifter. While setting 43 world records in airlift, the C-5M established new benchmarks in carrying more cargo faster and farther than any other airlifter.

Consider this another post in response to some comments made on a previous post.

Everyone talks about the A400M in comparison to the C-130 (while I think that it should more properly be compared to the C-17) but the plane everyone forgets is the C-5M.

The US will have a large number of these heavy lifters (over 50...hard to nail down the exact number) that outperform any lifter found in any other air force.

Oh and about rough ground capability.  Are you gonna risk a 100 million dollar airplane, along with its crew and cargo landing on rough ground?  Doubtful.  C-5's give strategic lift at airliner speed.

Its a forgotten heavy lifter with unmatched capability.

Sidenote:  Spare me the obvious howls of protests about the Ukrainian AN-124/225. The AN-124 is hardly ever seen in active service and most are thought to be in storage.  The AN-225 is a one off originally designed for the Space Program and now used strictly for commercial cargo.  Its a pay for play airplane and is used mostly by Western corporations and European military to make up for a shortfall in heavy lift.

US Army Contingency Expeditionary Force. How did I miss this?

I did a semi-post on a photo put out by the 25th Infantry Division highlighting a Contingency Response Force exercise that they were carrying out.  The pic showed a Stryker Infantry Carrier Vehicle being loaded onto a C-17.

I was flabbergasted.  Really?  Seriously?  The US Army has a CRF?  A reader named Constitutional Insurgent (Dude, you need to be careful with that name!  I like it but it could seriously cause trouble in this day and age!) pointed me in the right direction when he made this comment....

Each Combatant Command has contingency response forces with tiered authorities for initiation; for PACOM this includes elements tasked for the Global Response Force, Army Contingency Response Force and Homeland Defense Support [all Army heavy, primarily 2nd and 25th ID]; this is in addition to the FAST, Alert Contingency MAGTF and the CRF/CRE.
25th has worked it's Strykers into Pacific Pathways, so I'm not surprised that they're part of an alert package.

Ok.  One of my readers says that this is more than HQ Army bullshit so time to dig.

What I found surprised the hell outta me.  Check this out from FORSCOM (United States Army Forces Command)...

Contingency Expeditionary Forces units will be identified within 90 days of returning from theater, according to the white paper. They will go through the same ARFORGEN reset and training cycles as units going back to Afghanistan, but their missions will be elsewhere. The CEF units will perform such missions as:
-- homeland defense and civil support
-- overseas exercises
-- institutional support
-- theater security cooperation events
-- global response

How did I miss this?

I had focused on the 82nd Airborne and other independent Airborne Brigades re-establishing their roles in the "Global Response Force" and watched with a bit of interest as we saw units fly from Alaska and jumping in Australia...as the 173rd did "emergency activation exercise" in Europe.  But totally missed a bigger and perhaps more important development.

The US Army is actually trying to get into the "expeditionary" game.  

My take.  They're taking baby steps with this (ISIS and Afghanistan being a basket case probably isn't helping) and they probably aren't looking to step on Marine Corps toes, as much as Marines jab at the Army they're really good about roles and missions, in the desire to maintain much improved cooperation among US land forces.

Still the USMC should be mindful.

Regionally aligned forces?  Global Response Forces?  Contingency Expeditionary Forces?  The US Army is attempting to become a one stop shop for Combatant Commanders.