Sunday, January 23, 2022
Many are saying that the Ukrainian crisis IS ABOUT NATO Expansion
If NATO Expansion is at the root of this conflict (I don't know, just running with this tweet), then serious miscalculations have been made. Even more worrisome is that all those exercises, all those forward deployed high readiness units ... that constant military activity instead of deterring aggression actually promoted it!Russian President Boris Yeltsin had made Russia's opposition to such extreme expansion very clear. In a 1995 speech, he said:
— Paul Poast (@ProfPaulPoast) January 22, 2022
"Those who insist on an expansion of NATO are making a major political mistake. The flames of war could burst out across the whole of Europe." pic.twitter.com/qOznDSVX91
The weakness in the forward deployed/stand in force concept (at least as things stand in Europe) is that policy makers and not the military makes the final decision.
Forward deployed/stand in forces will go from being "recon" and "deterrents" to targets to be quickly eliminated while we watch enemy forces flow in.
But back to this issue.
If Russia is viewing this as a final straw type proposition and feel as if they can't yield one more inch of territory then war it is.
If the Russian people see things the way Russian leadership do then all the talk of weak support goes away.
Imagine if China occupied southern Mexico and was trying to take over the northern half. Wouldn't we rush aid and forces to that region to prevent them from encroaching onto our border?
Even if the "legitimate" govt of Mexico was in the Chinese camp and fully supported them, I just don't think we'd leave the northern part (that in this scenario has a strong allegiance to the US) from falling under their control!
The US Army would be rushing armored, mechanized and light infantry thru Texas and Arizona into Mexico. The USAF and Navy would be hustling too.
If this is the rationale then Russian intentions are clear. They will go to war, they will maintain a buffer against NATO expansion.
One thing I'm watching for in the upcoming Ukraine vs Russia fight.
Anyone get the feeling we might (and yeah this is being alarmist) heading into a period where nation state vs nation state becomes the norm again?
Hope not, but I digress.
One thing I'm watching for in the upcoming Ukraine vs Russia fight is how they integrate Special Ops into a conventional fight between foes.
Back in the day we saw all kinds of people predicting virtual suicide missions on command posts by Rangers. SEALs and Force Recon performing assassinations and attacking enemy shipping pierside.
Special Forces being turned loose in the enemy backyard to conduct all kinds of mayhem on any target they deemed appropriate.
We never actually saw any of that.
If you think about it, the last semi peer vs peer conflict we saw was probably the First Gulf War (before we realized how inadequate Iraqi forces were...before the fight they were considered well equipped and battle hardened).
In that fight the biggest thing we saw was a few rescue missions for downed pilots but the main visual was special ops roaming the desert looking for scuds.
With all the firepower being brought to the scene I wonder if the Russians will even bother with special ops missions. The Ukrainians might but I believe it will be acting as a fire brigade to bolster collapsing conventional units.
If past fighting is any indication of the future then air power will play a VERY limited role. Ukraine in particular might be looking at long range special ops missions (on the ground!) to carry the fight to the Russians.
This one feels all kind of wrong. I hope there isn't a fight. It will have Europe in turmoil for at least a decade. But if a fight it is I hope everyone in the Pentagon has their notebooks open for lessons learned and strategies developed for our turn in the box.
And so it begins....State Department orders families of U.S. embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin evacuating the country as soon as Monday: U.S. officials
Well this is the beginning of the beginning. State Dept ordering its personnel out? Pretty sure they're doing that after being informed by the Russians that its a pretty good idea to move NOW. They're leaving starting Mon? Complete evacuation by lets say....Weds (news is getting out now so I'm assuming they were first informed with certainty last Weds and probably told to prepare a couple of weeks ago if anyone in the State Dept has even a single brain cell). That would have this thing kick off in the wee early hours of say 2 or 3 am local time on Fri or Sat....
Some bonus stuff...BREAKING: State Department orders families of U.S. embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin evacuating the country as soon as Monday: U.S. officials
— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) January 22, 2022
 |
❗️ photos of American retirees from the Special Forces who arrived in Donbass as instructors |
We're looking at a Field Army (Reinforced) heading to the border of Ukraine
This is looking massive beyond my wildest expectations. I don't know what part of Ukraine gets hit but if they do then it will be totally destroyed. Micro fragmentation won't do it justice as a description of the destruction.A channel run by Belarusian rail workers says that 33 military echelons have arrived in Belarus from Russia with an average of 50 cars per train over the past 7 days compared to 29 over an entire month for the Zapad 2021 exercise. They claim 200 echelons are scheduled to arrive. pic.twitter.com/4BueMSPY8x
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 23, 2022
Sadly I now suspect that diplomacy is off the table for now. Putin (as a side issue) is gonna make Biden look impotent.
The funny thing? Well funny sad?
All nations influence elections in other countries. The accusations about Russia influencing our election was in my opinion dubious. Even if true then what of it? We do it too.
But this Ukraine issue.
This will have dramatic ramifications for the US on several levels.
* This action WILL INFLUENCE the midterms.
* This action will influence other regimes around the globe. From N. Korea, to Iran, to China, and will shatter/shake Europe out of their defense slumber.
* A successful victory (whether military or diplomatic) will lead to other hostile actions around the globe.
To speak plainly, we could see the Biden agenda meets its death, exploding gas prices from the Middle East and Russia, increased activity against Taiwan, a nuclear Iran which will push Israel to attack and the Republicans regain power.
All this assumes that we don't slip into a great depression caused by the mixture of all of the above along with covid continuing.
The terrible 20's are gonna live up to their name.
Saturday, January 22, 2022
Monstrous Russian Artillery Action During Heavy Live Fire: 2S7 Pion, 2S5 Giatsint-S & 2S4 Tyulpan...Field Fortification Elimination
We got so enamored with "expeditionary" and before that "rapid deployment" and now "forward presence" that we forgot that when you're in a big fight you need big guns (and armor, and close air, etc...). We once had 203mm cannons in our inventory but for some reason EVERYONE in the west standardized on the 155. Big mistake.
Protests in Hong Kong are just different...
I've been using Redditt to monitor the protest in Hong Kong. To say that they're just different is an understatement. Here you see them knocking down a facial recognition tower, in another video I saw, they actually cleared a barricade from the street in 22 SECONDS to let emergency vehicles thru. Personally I like their style. I don't know if the protests are effective but they seem to be expressing themselves WITHOUT collateral damage (at least in the ones I've seen....it might be happening and I just haven't seen it). Truly in the spirit of MLK. We should relearn the lesson that obviously he taught the world. Peaceful protest work.
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