By now you've read the stories...Mubarak was suppose to step down today. He didn't. President Obama made a speech earlier today almost proclaiming that "change" was near in Egypt.
My question is this.
Did US intelligence contacts in Egypt publicly punk the Obama administration?
What do I mean by that?
Did they purposely tell US contacts that Mubarak was going to step down in order to gauge the Washington reaction?
I'm betting they did.
Prediction.
Bloodshed in the streets and this rebellion will be forcefully put down.
Mubarak is kinda burning his ships, is he not? Almost mailed you yester eve --just after the speech--, but realized I had nothing to add, not really.
ReplyDeleteWhat bothers me is that I've had, for a while, the growing feeling that the protestors are being goaded [*]. I'd have expected all hell to break loose last night. Kinda surprised it didn't, but it opens a shitload of questions, around "why?".
Unless I wanted them there to have a tripwire alibi for intervention, I'd evac my people now.
And, frankly, I wouldn't trust consensus home front intel analysis for my grocery list.
Take care.
[*] An important announcement that announces nothing on a Thursday night? All those high level meetings? An announcement on further announcements at noon today? Er... What's the game?
The power in Egypt is held by the army,for the last fifty years the president has been an ex army man and owes his position to it.
ReplyDeleteThe Egyptian populace on the whole respects the army,and the army in turn seems to be acting in a very restrained manner (at the moment)
I have a feeling that Mubarak is trying to play the army off against the demonstrators and that he will appeal to them to disperse them for the sake of Egypts future which it is their duty to protect.
So one of two things will happen (1) The army will turn against the demonstrators or (2) The army will force Mubarak out of office.
Personaly I think that option (2) is the most likely as if the army turns on it's own people then they will have condemned Egypt to years of unrest,which they will have to deal with.
My guess,a temporary military governing body before elections which will see another ex military leader,thus keeping out the 'Muslim Brotherhood'
The US has been caught in an impasses:
ReplyDeleteThey must build an "alliance" with less radical Arab states (eg Saudi, UAE, Jordan, and YES Egypt) in order to contain the radical ones. On the flip side, they must support the "democratic" protest aimed to oust the occasionally oppressive/undemocratic Mubarak.
Either the intel was correct or Washington forced Mubarak to step down.
ReplyDeleteBecause, you know, Mubarak did step down.
oh my God.
ReplyDeleteare you really that simple?
reports indicated that this was to happen yesterday.
the President indicated in his speech yesterday that it was to happen.
they were duped and its easy to see.
It sounds like the Egyptian army expected Mubarak to step down yesterday and was furious when he didn't. So maybe that's who gave us the tip.
ReplyDeleteOk, now what?
ReplyDeleteFormer MINDEF seems to top the new VP, who would seem to be first in the line. Also, how different is the new horse?
Say, 6 months from now... what?
Take care.
Don't worry Solomon, I was just joking.
ReplyDeleteI also agree with the above that it might have been the military that tipped of Washington.
no problem Lance.
ReplyDeletebelieve it or not i don't mind disagreement...i actually like it. i just want to be convinced that i'm wrong...
but what really has me concerned is that now, if Egypt goes bad and i think that it will, then we're looking at another Middle Eastern Regional War.
Israel is now surrounded, we could have been patient and let Mubarak hang on for 6 months so that we could have an orderly turn over but instead we have this mess.
damn rookies in the Obama administration have screwed our national policy again.
first Bush led us into an unnecessary war with a natural bullwark against Iran and now this new administration is making new mistakes.
DAMN IT!
Apparently Mr. Obama was right. Nice.
ReplyDeleteuh...what planet are you living on????
ReplyDeletedude, the uncertainty that's about to rock the middle east is huge!
the administration response was emotional and ill considered.
if you think he's right then oh' well...
Sol,
ReplyDeleteYour prediction 'bloodshed in the streets and this rebellion will be forcefully put down'
Just how wrong can you be and yet you are still bleating on,sometimes it appears that you actually would like to see the chaos and bloodshed,no doubt as long as you are not anywhere near it.
You are an idiot.
> we could have been patient and let Mubarak hang on for 6 months so that we could have an orderly turn over but instead we have this mess.
ReplyDeleteMubarak has been in power for THIRTY GODDAMN YEARS. If the guy was going to carry out some kind of "orderly turn over" it would have happened. Just last year he blatantly rigged an election to stay in power, and up until last night he wasn't giving any indication that he planned to facilitate any such power transfer.
And what "mess"? The protests have been marked by civility and order by all accounts. The only people making a mess were Mubarak goons assaulting unarmed protestors, which once again brings us back to your slavish obsession with Mubarak's "order."
Anyways, like I said before, it's been clear to everyone since the Tunisian protests that Mubarak's days were limited. Only blinkered ideologues expected anything to turn out differently, and you are arguing against the tide of history here. The real work for the USA/West starts now in building a functioning democracy and not mythologizing Mubarak as some kind of benevolent dictator.
well lets see if i can piss you off.
ReplyDeleteas far as Egypt is concerned...feed em' fish heads and rice....i don't care.
lets be capitalist and sell arms to Israel and get a couple of airbases setup in Iraq so we can bomb any aggressor against them.
Sol,
ReplyDeletethings seem to be going as well as we can wish. My top fear, right now, is that they try "business as usual" and it blows up.
We'll see, anyhow.
BTW, a question I sorta asked some posts ago: "realpolitik" and all that, what does Israel provide that tops the Suez channel? Yes, they're, by and large, good people. This doesn't pay the bills, so why the... "traditional" [?] interest to protect them. Not as if they haven't proved they can well damn defend themselves. Genuinely curious. Egypt and Israel are huge receivers of mil sales, if I'm not mistaken. So are the Sauds, just round the corner --but, then, they control oil and the Red Sea--.
Take care.
only thing with Israel is really a biblical reference thats beaten into the heads of Southern Baptist in the US since birth...
ReplyDeletewe protect the land of Jesus.
its as simple as that...religious fundamentalism i guess.
still. it works for me.
The same goes to "West-friendly" benevolent dictators.
ReplyDeleteGeez, when will the US update its diplomatic overture. The one they have today is neither competitive nor that "democratic."
OK. Thanks. The nuances of Protestantism often escape me --I'm getting better, but I was born when anything else than Roman Catholic was... er... "actively discouraged"... including, specifically, Judaism--.
ReplyDeleteThanks, again.
@ Sol
ReplyDeleteBetween a destabilized Egypt, heavily armed Israel, occupied Iraq and an US that shows more arm than brain, what we will mostly likely to get is across the West: 9/11 Part II, Part III and Part IV.
What a fucking idiot.
i disagree.
ReplyDelete9/11 is a law enforcement issue and probably a political correctness issue.
but you're the same type of person that worships at the cultural of European multiculturalism....
Sol,
ReplyDeleteTry & take a brief survey and see how many believes 9/11 is merely a law enforcement issue.
It's just as simple-minded to label campus shootings as merely a mental health issue.
Now, explain your "lets be capitalist and sell arms to Israel and get a couple of airbases setup in Iraq so we can bomb any aggressor against them." shit.
What a fucking idiot.
sorry Horde. tired of playing. run along home now.
ReplyDelete@ Sol
ReplyDeleteYou meant tired of actually using your brain?
A word of advice for you: "Don't start what you can't finish," said Sun Tzu. If you want to bomb someone/sovereign state, make damn sure that you can swallow any potential consequences.
What a fucking chicken.
not exactly. i just don't like you.
ReplyDeleteas a matter of fact its moving from dislike to despise. oh and if you're confused it has nothing to do with the little JSF debate.
you're a twisted evil little guy.
quite honestly if i ever met you in person i'd just kick your ass and be done with it but i and have and am still trying to be civil with you.
so do us both a favor. if you want to debate, do it on the pages of ARES but stay off my page.
Sollie, as dim as ever. Your prejudices are amusing.
ReplyDeleteSol,
ReplyDeleteI have grave doubts whether you are able to 'kick anyones ass', I have met loud mouthed blowhard bigots before and they all turned out to be pussies I don't think you are any exception.
You wouldn't know how to be civil if your worthless life depended on it,get real you chicken shit redneck.
"Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding"
ReplyDeleteWhether you like this POTUS or not, the diplomatic balancing work is the stuff of legend. Bravo.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-egypt-obama-strategy-20110213,0,1977768,full.story
diplomatic balancing rope my behind.
ReplyDeletedid you hear the Vice President speak?
many, many people are voicing concern that a westward leaning dictator will be replaced with a radical islamic leader.
sorry but we're looking at the strong possibility of a debacle of enormous size.
back to the VP's speech. he's trying to rope the Republicans into having helped frame this strategy. they didn't.
the President let his political leanings get the better of him.
i still think its doomed to failure.
History will decide.
ReplyDeleteyes she will...
ReplyDeletei'm going to do some searches of Israeli message boards and see if they agree with you .... i see a middle east in danger, not a glorious new beginning.
@ Sol
ReplyDeleteEnjoying the fish head?
What a fucking Cold War relics.