Afghans take over security from NATO. How long before the unfinished civil war kicks off?

via Hindu Times.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced at a ceremony on Tuesday that his country’s armed forces are taking over the lead for security nationwide from the U.S.-led NATO coalition.
The handover of responsibility is a significant milestone in the nearly 12-year war and marks a turning point for American and NATO military forces, which will now move entirely into a supporting role. It also opens the way for their full withdrawal in 18 months.
“This is a historic moment for our country and from Wednesday all of the security operations will be in the hands of the Afghan security forces,” Mr. Karzai said at the ceremony, held at the new National Defense University built to train Afghanistan’s future military officers.
Mr. Karzai said that in the coming months, coalition forces will gradually withdraw from Afghanistan’s provinces as the country’s security forces replace them.

Put on your thinking cap and remember your history. What was one of the major clues that terrorist activity was soon to occur back in 2001?  I'll give you a hint.  A commander for this group was killed and intelligence analyst went crazy.

The assassination of Commander Massoud of the Northern Alliance.

Want a serious kick in the pants?  The military wing of the Northern Alliance reformed when the US began getting serious about peace talks with the Taliban.  Many, myself included, picked this up as a signal that peace wouldn't be allowed.  Once the US left, the war would be back on and the Northern Alliance would once again be back in action fighting their old foes.

So my question is simple.

How long before what we're seeing in Syria is repeated in Afghanistan?