Sferrin was kind enough to point to MANY articles that I've written in support of the F-35 and basically calls me a flip-flopper because I'm calling for a delay to the Marine Corps purchase.
He's right.
I've been one of staunchest supporters of the F-35 program.
But times have changed and events crystallized when the Marine Corps had to kill the very promising Marine Personnel Carrier program in order to help keep funding flowing for the F-35. That was when I realized that people that I had criticized vehemently were right...about the costs portion of the airplane anyway.
We can't afford it.
Moral courage demands that when information changes, or rather when it becomes obvious that the information that you received is no longer valid, that its time to rethink your planning. That's all I'm doing with the F-35.
Cowards or fools continue the course when information informs them that the path they're on is leading to at best trouble and at worst disaster. This applies doubly to defense projects.
So yeah. My position has changed. The information has changed. Therefore the procurement plan must change.
Gotta respect that, nicely put, boss.
ReplyDeletethanks for that, but i'm dealing with a whole bunch of stir fried crow. i'm a big boy so i can take the pain. but still, pride is wounded by how wrong i was.
Deletethe amazing thing is that i'm only calling for a delay. even that small thing is treated like a scandal.
its amazing how people criticize those for changing their minds, its the hallmark of a great mind that can go against the grain and change in the face of new information, there was a time man "knew" we were the center of the universe, we knew the earth was flat, we knew illness was caused by demonic possession, we knew the brain couldn't make any new cells after birth, all of these are wrong because humans got more data! :)
DeleteEinsteins definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again expecting different results, well having the same ideas when data is changing is essentially the same thing!
glad to see you standing firm Sol!
Actually I wasn't criticizing him for changing his stance. (Anybody can go back and read my post.) He'd made the claim that he'd been "on the beat" so to speak with the F-35 for a long time. I disagreed with him on that and pointed out that I remembered exactly when he came on the scene. He was saying how the F-22 was a waste (because he wanted the F-35). I pointed out that the F-22's detractors were simply interested in killing it and promoting the Eurocanards. I also pointed out that once the F-22 was dead they'd turn their attention to the F-35 (which they were promoting at the time in their attempts to kill the F-22). This is exactly what happened. I never said anything about Solomon flip-flopping so this whole bromance about "having guts" and implying others are cowards for not jumping on the anti-F-35 bandwagon is nothing more than an amusing side-show. The fact of the matter is if you stop developing aircraft you will lose your ability to do so. End of story. I can't dumb it down further than that. We need the F-35 a hell of a lot more than we need new swimmers for the USMC or more 40 year old fighter designs. YMMV.
Deleteyeah it does vary and i keep a copy of every comment posted on my blog. even those that are later deleted by the poster.
Deletedo you want me to post the remark that you deleted?????
Feel free. I wasn't criticizing you for changing your stance there either. I was laughing at the claim of how long you've been "on the scene". By all means undelete that bad boy. I deleted it to tone it down, not to change it's message.
DeleteGiven the cost of modern aircraft, perhaps the whole concept of Marine aviation needs to be rethought, at least as far as fixed-wing assets are concerned. Perhaps you just can't afford it any more.
ReplyDeletei disagree with that wholeheartedly. the issue isn't fixed wing aircraft per say, but instead whether stealth is worth the costs and should be part of the entire fleet or considered specialty aircraft that reside in only a few squadrons in the USAF.
Deleteif the F-35B didn't have a spec of stealth to it yet had the same performance and costs half as much you wouldn't hear a word from anyone. but a 200 million plus airplane? that's insanity. the model for procurement is the F-18. product improve or take an evolutionary path when it comes to new airplanes. add to it a bit of procurement discipline by not changing specs and you're well on your way to an affordable airplane.
Don't worry, you will be wrong again and flip back to the F-35.
ReplyDeleteThe F-35 didn't change-- you did. You decided once you didn't get the MPC that is must be the F-35s fault because of its current price. You simply drew a conclusion with very little research.
I will say this clearly since you know fuck-all about aircraft and procurement:
The F-35 did not kill the MPC. Have you bothered to look at how much money the USMC Air Wing spent pre-F-35 FY buys and compare it to how much the Air Wing and US Navy spend now with the F-35 buys? Its nothing short of comical to watch someone who clearly has no idea what things cost complaining about expense.
Here is the cost for the 6 Growlers and 6 Super Hornets Australia plan on:
http://www.dsca.mil/PressReleases/36-b/2013/Australia_13-05.pdf
You are beyond your depth, and were far better off with your comic book style tactical assessments than your shooting from the hip "cost analysis" The information is out there, you are just willfully ignorant. Eat crow, and prepare to be disappointed over the next few years.
no actually i'm not.
Deleteswindlers, hustlers and con artist...and those in government try to make the simple complex.
for example.
if the Marine Corps did not have X number of dollars flowing to the F-35, then they would be able to buy Y amount of other much needed equipment.
i find your anger interesting.
what would be your reaction if i had stated that the airplane needs to be canceled outright? i bet it would shake your cubicle.
let me add this. i'm not the only one looking at the F-35 and the Marine Budget and saying what the fuck. this is a project that is consuming us all.
quite honestly you remind me of the home buyers that bought at the top of the housing bubble. despite the little voice in the back of their heads that was telling them that they were paying too much, that it made no sense that housing could continue to rise at the rate that it was and still bought anyway....but now want sympathy from everyone that stayed in their older homes that they could afford.
yeah its just like that. this thing is off the rails and everyone knows it. Lockheed Martin knows it, the DoD knows it and all thats being sought is an exit ramp. this program will scar the defense industry and pentagon relations for the rest of my life time at best. the gravy train for defense contractors is now over and the only thing left is for them to reap the whirl wind.
"swindlers, hustlers and con artist...and those in government try to make the simple complex."
DeleteVery APA of you. Weren't you an F-35 pusher?
"i find your anger interesting."
LOL now you are all calm and collected after you just cursed me out in another topic. Project much buddy? you told Sferrin to "eat shit and die" wow dude, wow. I find your anger childish. Interesting would be a refreshing change.
"if the Marine Corps did not have X number of dollars flowing to the F-35, then they would be able to buy Y amount of other much needed equipment."
how insightful!! I take everything back about you being a dumbass that doesn't comprehend budgets.
"let me add this. i'm not the only one looking at the F-35 and the Marine Budget and saying what the fuck. this is a project that is consuming us all."
You are? How does it compare to aircraft replacement and procurement costs normally? I await your well detailed answer. You could even do some of that math stuff they showed in you in school and show us all the difference.
"what would be your reaction if i had stated that the airplane needs to be canceled outright? i bet it would shake your cubicle."
It would because as we can all see you are so powerful on your internet blog Sol. I'm so scared, you internet tough guy! curse at me now so I can cry to your mom tonight!
"yeah its just like that."
LOL sure it is sweetheart, now tell us how you pimped it for years and called everyone who disagreed with you stupid
this thing is off the rails and everyone knows it. Lockheed Martin knows it, the DoD knows it and all thats being sought is an exit ramp. this program will scar the defense industry and pentagon relations for the rest of my life time at best. the gravy train for defense contractors is now over and the only thing left is for them to reap the whirl wind."
not really, no. But you are an emotional gal with a flair for the dramatic
-HTH
this program is a fucking disgrace.
Deletepure and simple.
everyone knows it. this puppy would have been killed except for the fact that it has so many international partners. and we know thats the only reason why it continues. if just one. just one country says you know what, i don't care about production offsets this is bullshit, then if what you're saying is true then the house of cards will collapse.
and thats the real source of your irritation with me.
i'm a little bitty blog thats Marine Corps centric and i'm yelling at the top of my lungs that this thing is killing the Corps and you're afraid that the message is flowing...
that's the real deal. YOU'RE SCARED SHITLESS THAT THE MARINE CORPS MIGHT ACTUALLY DELAY THIS THING.
and if they do then all bets are off. suddenly you have Italy, Canada and others saying we can make do with less. that's your fear and that's why you're hanging out here.
No, F-35 has changed repeatedly.
Delete* reducing turn performance from 5.3 to 4.6 sustained g’s
* extending the time for acceleration from 0.8 Mach to 1.2 Mach by eight seconds
* F-35B and F-35C also had their turn rates and acceleration time eased. The B-model jet’s max turn went from 5.0 to 4.5 g’s and its acceleration time to Mach 1.2 was extended by 16 seconds. The F-35C lost 0.1 g off its turn spec and added a whopping 43 seconds to its acceleration.
The price has increased from 45 million a copy to over 150 million per copy.
The helmet doesn't work and neither does the logistics/maintenance.
It's a flawed, much delayed piece of shit and it is time we looked at alternatives.
"i'm a little bitty blog thats Marine Corps centric and i'm yelling at the top of my lungs that this thing is killing the Corps and you're afraid that the message is flowing...
Deletethat's the real deal. YOU'RE SCARED SHITLESS THAT THE MARINE CORPS MIGHT ACTUALLY DELAY THIS THING."
Yes Sol, you are the first person on an internet blog that has called for cancellation of the F-35. I'm shaking I'm so scared. Please Sol, remember how powerful you are politically! Luckily for me, my daddy Amos is still going all in on the F-35.
"and if they do then all bets are off. suddenly you have Italy, Canada and others saying we can make do with less. that's your fear and that's why you're hanging out here."
Yes because you have such an inside track on whats really going on. I originally wrote here to see why you went off the deep end, now I'm just enjoying the ride. Its funny. Very funny.
The F-35 is your windmill, keep slaying that dragon!
no windmill.
Deletei've been quite clear even if you don't want to hear it. the F-35 is costing too much, delivering too little and should be delayed. again. never said cancel it, just delay it. but for some reason that sends you to stupidville and you want it to be a PCS move. sorry. ain't buying it. you want to talk about funny? you are. the way you're twisting yourself in knots defending what is clearly indefensible is beyond me, but this program is screwing the Corps.
i might add that if you think that you're convincing anyone you're not. people that know me probably are wondering why i haven't just deleted every e-mail you've sent. its simple. i wanted to see if a rabid supporter could actually say something that made sense.
you didn't. my position remains the same. delay this puppy. prepare to shoot it in the face. and never trust Lockheed Martin again. if you're on their payroll then they just aren't to be trusted.
LOL wow weren't you a rabid supporter just a while ago? weren't you defending the F-35 and rubbing it in everyone's face?
DeleteNot everyone who posts on here agrees with you in case you had not noticed.
I'm sorry Sol, but I'm a Marine, not on any LM payroll, but I do understand budgets, and I know what is going on behind the scenes and I know what I am talking about. Rather than trust a fellow Marine trying to unscrew your day one recruit level ideas, you just continue to spin in retarded circles.
if you're a Marine then i need to invite you over for some wall to wall counseling. if you don't think the F-35 is screwing the Corps then i need to put your ass on the yellow foot prints again and raise you right.
Deletehow a fellow Marine can look at the armor situation the Corps is facing and think that aviation needs to be taken care of first is a disgrace. the idea that a fellow Marine doesn't see the value in getting a MPC to other Marines today instead of waiting another 10 years or more for HQMC to get around to fielding either an ACV or MPC is downright criminal.
you my friend have been away from the fleet too damn long if you think the AAVs that Marines are splashing in are good enough. step away from the chalk board and get in the grass and mud.
but yeah. i was a rabid supporter when it was affordable and it appeared that the roadmap would take us where we needed to go, the way we needed to get there. this roadmap ain't doing that so its time to change.
so take your ooh-rah bar and shove it up your ass. no way a real Marine would think that an airframe is more important than protecting infantry on the way to the objective.
"if you're a Marine then i need to invite you over for some wall to wall counseling. if you don't think the F-35 is screwing the Corps then i need to put your ass on the yellow foot prints again and raise you right."
DeleteSeeing as you pimped the F-35 hard for years, you can counsel yourself as well.
"how a fellow Marine can look at the armor situation the Corps is facing and think that aviation needs to be taken care of first is a disgrace."
Listen carefully:
The USMC needs new amtraks and they needed them yesterday. They also need the JSF. Believe it or not.
However, the JSF is further along. The foundations for the JSF are set, and delaying or killing the JSF does not suddenly mean we have money for MPCs
You have yet to produce a single document that shows the F-35 taking from the MPC program.
So once again AND I WILL SAY THIS FOR EM- PHA -SIS. KILLING THE JSF DOESN'T GET YOU MPCS ANY FASTER. if you have documentation that says otherwise, I would enjoy seeing it, as would other Marines.
All you have is "the JSF costs money that could be used for other stuff" Thats not wholly true. If we killed the JSF we would have to:
A. Spend money on alternatives, I doubt there would be any left over despite your attempts at showing alternatives.
B. Convince Congress to allocate those funds to MPCs. The government has wacky rules about taking money for one thing and then spending it on something else without approval
There is a helluva lot more, but don't want to waste my time, as I have been by trying to patiently explain things.
The air wing has been around for a long time and you have yet to show it spending to excess other than shouting the price of the F-35 over and over. Can you show me the increased costs by the USMC airwing pre F-35 and post? For comparisons sake?
"so take your ooh-rah bar and shove it up your ass. no way a real Marine would think that an airframe is more important than protecting infantry on the way to the objective."
Sol we can only afford one thing, and that thing is the JSF and not the MPC. I'm sorry to tell you that. I am also sorry to tell you that killing or delaying the JSF won't help much either, because a lot of F-35 costs are shared by the NAvy and other government funds.
I've tried telling you this multiple times.
Here are options:
F-35 and MPC for later
No F-35 and MPC for later
Thats it. The F-35 is very armored against political meddling, and is even being protected from sequestration. The MPC and everything else isn't. So HQMC can play along and at least get the airplanes we want, and replace fixed wing stuff. Or it can fight and try extricate itself from a program that is actually what we want, in a "hail mary" attempt to get MPCs faster-- that we don't have the money or political support for.
This bothers you because you don't feel the CMC is fighting and kicking hard enough to get what will end up being not much, as budgets shrink post GWoT.
The CMC, not surprisingly is taking the JSF that the Marine Corps has been planning on the last 15 years. He is betting on the horse that will win. rather than gambling it all on something that won't.
That is reality. You are telling me what you want, I am telling you what we can get. If you don't like it, write your congressman, or plant a money tree and send your donations to 8th and I.
I think we need armor too, but before we slaughter the JSF, we may want to confirm we will get what we are killing it for. Thats the problem Sol. There is no connection that I can see. Any more than killing missile defense gets us MPCs, or LCSs gets us MPCs.
DeleteWe have two banks. Aviation bank, and armor bank. Aviation bank has a lot of help. Armor bank has next to none. The funds are non transferable, no matter how much you wish it.
I can not, in all my research and all my knowledge of Marine and Navy funding, find how killing the JSF gets us MPCs. IF you can, please post it, and I will gladly take a look at it. You are mad at the principal of one thing getting so much, and another getting so little. I get that. But its an apple to oranges unfortunately, all the money and hope in the world won't make an apple into an orange.
I could be neutral on armor vs JSF and nothing changes. The only reason I favor the JSF, Is it fits the USMC the best and replaces 3 types. If someone comes up with something that beats the F-35B, I will favor that. If someone finds a way to get the JSF and MPCs I will favor that. And if someone can actually prove, that delaying JSFs gets us MPCs faster I will favor that. But I have yet to see it.
You keep trying this "Me vs you" bullshit and It is not, it's me trying to explain the situation, and you not liking the answers you are getting. If me trying to tell you the Marine Corps is pushing for the F-35 because thats what they can get in fically shitty times, makes me a LM Shill in your eyes, I'm sorry, but I'm not
"But times have changed and events crystallized when the Marine Corps had to kill the very promising Marine Personnel Carrier program in order to help keep funding flowing for the F-35. "
ReplyDeleteSource for this claim? Any kind of documentation showing the connection?
Here is some math fun Sol. Lets pretend that Every year the Marine Corps spends 10 billion dollars on aircraft. In 2008 it buys 50. In 2012 it buys 34 and 6 F-35s for a total of 40 aircraft, total cost 10 billion.
See how the price didn't change? See how the F-35 didn't "gobble up" anything in overall cost? It cost more but with fewer purchased the budget didn't change.
-HTH
Solomon, the marines are not trying to penetrate an air defence zone for the first time. They're trying to save the ass of marines caught in a multi-day fire fight where they are being overwhelmed by numbers (you know the hills/battles in Vietnam, where this happened) and it will happen again and again. You need a cost effective fighter that can appear in numbers and operate effectively from remote locations. Why doesn't everyone talk about the cost effective and capable Gripen, yet no one is willing to order it? In the next generation, it can operate off carriers or roadways. Everyone says that it is an excellent fighter/attack aircraft but no one will order it, even though all costs (procurement and operating costs) are less than any other aircraft. It is a perfect fit for Canada but defence procurement here is purely political. (we have an inferiority complex and we want acceptance from the U.S. - maybe we as a country can take an anti-depressant and get over it, eh?)
ReplyDeleteThe Gripen is not a STOVL aircraft and it doesn't matter how many "cost effective" aircraft you have if they can't survive the environment they're asked to fight in. And if nobody is willing to order it there's probably a reason. (Or maybe you're just so much smarter than the world's air forces - if you could only make them see the light. But I doubt it.)
DeleteOne major problem I see with delaying the F-35 or any project, is that a delay nearly always means a massive increase in cost. If the F-35 is virtually unaffordable now, then I think a delay will just make it worse.
ReplyDeleteSo really I think if it came to it, then it would most likely have to be a choice between cancelling and continuing.
Btw Solomon, you mentioned in one of the posts about one of the international countries pulling out, well it looks like the Netherlands are having serious seconds thoughts. They have just accepted their first test F-35 and are putting it straight into storage as they are rethinking what aircraft will replace their F-16s.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/dutch-accept-first-f-35-test-aircraft-388784/