The above video shows the Chinese Type 99 MBT operating on their high desert. I have yet to read a good intelligence assessment on it or any other piece of Chinese armor. What I have seen are years old productions that link Chinese to Russian gear and gives the impression that they're the same. I highly doubt that.
But the bigger question should be this. We CAN do COIN and Nation Building (what do you think Afghanistan is?) but can we do Combine Arms?
I'd love to see an Army Brigade or/and a Marine Corps Battalion deploy to Ft Irwin and go up against their OPFOR (do they still exist?). If they're still around and if they're still good and if they've modernized and are now using Chinese tactics (do we even have visibility on Chinese tactics????) then it might be at best a close call...at worse an ass whipping for our guys.
We definitely need to get up to speed.
not so sure about the tank, it's survivability against NATO spec armor, it's endurance and supply chain etc....but the video sure had some good metal power chords.
ReplyDeletedo you see the shaping of that tanks turret? i'm not just talking about the rear of the turret with the obvious western style blow out panels but also the area mantle around the main gun. that is far from Russian in appearance. now having said all that do you really believe that a country that engages in as much cyber espionage as China would have skipped looking for the CHOBHAM formula? you don't think that they either have it or are actively seeking it?
Deleteto me that's the blind spot we have. we assume that Western tanks are superior and we also assume that are subs are too.
i'm not so sure.
you shouldn't be either.
The thing about CHOBHAM armor is that it requires very advantage materials and manufacturing technology. Given China's utter failure to produce any close to a reliable and efficient jet engine, I have serious doubts that they have either. And it isn't like China hasn't been able to get their hands on actual modern and reliable Jet engines. They know all the geometries and properties, they just don't know how to make the materials.
Deletearrogance. the reason why the Chinese haven't duplicated western engines yet is because it isn't to their advantage to do so. you still have AirBus, Boeing, Pratt and Whitney and GE still operating in that country. the minute they start producing western engines, copies or otherwise is when the whole game becomes too obvious for even the most oblivious to ignore.
Deletebesides. armor was produced much earlier than machinery. they have a CHOBHAM. its almost a guarantee.
not arrogance. They actually desperately need modern high reliability, efficient, and low maintenance engines for their military aircraft. Both China and Russia have so far been incapable of it. They issue really is that advanced materials and manufacturing required. None of the engine manufactures do any R&D or product manufacturing in China and have basically said its never going to happen.
DeleteThis is somewhat similar to the high end steel manufacturing industry which China has wanted to get into but doesn't yet have the advanced materials nor manufacturing capability to do.
The basics of what CHOBHAM is are widely understood, but that does allow you to make an effective product. You need to know the processes and equipment actually used to make the ceramics with the right specifications for it to actually work. It all pretty complex and being a bit off here or a bit off there results in product with different and often times significantly different specifications.
I don't think you understand how far behind china is in most of the advanced materials and materials manufacturing areas. China specializes in labor intensive markets. They have little ability or knowledge in many of the design and materials markets.
i'll say it again. arrogance. China has a space program. western engine companies ARE producing engines in their country. they ARE making modern, cutting edge consumer electronics for practically everyone and they have not only modernized, but they've done it on the backs of the western consumer looking for cheaper products.
DeleteYOU DON"T realize how close they are achieving technological parity with the west.
All they have to do is experiment with layers of ceramic, depleted uranium, RHA, titanium alloys and they can develop their own Chobham equivalent.
DeleteWhich Western engines are being produced in China, Solomon? The GenX, the Trent XWB, the PW-1000 or something else?
DeleteWhich bleeding edge consumer electronics are the Chinese making? Does my HTC or iPod count as bleeding edge?
China's space program is recreating 1960's tech. They haven't done a single innovative thing wrt space. It is copy only so far. And 1960's copy at that. They don't even have anything planned that isn't 1960's copy.
DeleteThey don't make ANY modern cutting edge consumer electronics. They *assemble* modern cutting edge consumer electronics. They are well behind in actually manufacturing any of the parts that matter. Their semiconductor manufacturing capability is so far behind it isn't close to competitive. Consumer electronics that are "Made in China" aren't really made in china. They are assembled in china. The silicon is made in other countries. Its just like getting an Intel CPU that has "Made in Malaysia" stamped on it. It wasn't made in Malaysia, it was assembled there into a package with silicon (the only part that matters) that was made in the US, Ireland, or Israel. Iphone? Not made in China, assembled in china using part designed in california and manufactured in Austin, Texas, and/or Seoul, Korea, and/or Taiwan.
Not a single western engine manufacturer is producing engines in China. Not RR, not PW, not GE, not Snecma nor CFM, not IAE. China has been trying for decades to get one of the western engine manufacturers to actually manufacture engines in china. They've all said no.
Paralus, that's like saying its easy to create viable gemstone quality diamonds. Everyone has known how to make diamonds for decades upon decades. There are currently only 2 companies that can make gemstone quality diamonds and they both went into production within the last 10 years. Knowing how to make something and actually being able to make something are completely different. One of my more favorite quotes on the subject is: "theory and reality are only theoretically related". Its a pretty good saying for anything MatSci related which included the whole semiconductor field. Spend some time around high end MatSci people and you'll hear an earful about all the materials that they should theoretically be able to make but cannot actually make in reality yet. AKA, we know from science how a lot of materials should look and how they could be made, we just haven't ever gotten it to work. Ceramic is pretty much a catch all phrase for the vast amounts of MatSci. For use on something like a tank, one of the major issues to overcome is fracture strength/brittleness.
Well, I can apply your rational to American defense or electronic industry.
DeleteMost precision machinery used by US defense firms are imported from Germany, Japan or Taiwan. Without those foreign assistance, we won't able to assemble or construct our most advanced fighter jet, warship, etc. Would you dare to say US no longer make cutting edge weaponry then?
As for micro electronic industry, I can speak based on my own expertise. Other than Intel, almost all US based semiconductor companies are fabless i.e. they don't own fabs that makes the chips. Instead they design and market chips but contracted out fabrication. The foreign companies possess the hardware and technology that turns the design into actual microchips. That's why our whole electronic supply chain is so f*ked up now and counterfeit knockoffs are seen everywhere. What does that tell you about American industry? Are we really better off than the Chinese?
US defense industry is increasingly weakening due to rapid disappearance of second and third tier suppliers. Those mid-sized companies specialize in basic building blocks/materials used on the system level. At the top level, US defense firms are still enjoying competitive edge because of their mastery of system integration. We can design the most sophisticated shipborne combat system in the world, and yet our newly commissioned ships are facing industrial age issues like corrosion or leakage. What about production Patriot missiles loaded with Chinese made counterfeit components? What does that tell you? US will lose in the long run because of our uncompetitive burger flapping service economy. Defense industry survived the de-industrialization slaughter other manufacturing sectors had to endure in the past few decades only because of federal government subsidies. Now with sequestration looming large, how much longer you think supper can last? Look across the Pacific pound at China, you see a complete different picture, reminiscence of the good old USA at her industrial might.
DeleteIt is almost a guarantee that the current gen of Chinese tanks are at least as good as the original Abrams if not on par with an M1A2. However it isn't a game changer. A downward facing blast from a Hellfire, TOW, or Javelin will still kill the engine and cook off some ammo. It is a pity that the Copperhead artillery rounds were removed from inventory (last I checked).
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, the Army still does combined arms very well. NTC stopped doing "COIN" rotations and JRTC is moving back to "forced entry" scenarios. The BN level combined arms exercises I've seen in the last five years give me a lot of hope, not everyone wants to be a COIN guru, a lot of leadership is all about killing bad guys in a combined arms fight.
Their defense budget is growing, while ours is shrinking.
ReplyDeleteAll they need is more than us and it becomes a numbers game.
I would love to know how much it takes them to create a tank, sub, or aircraft compared to us? Judging by the F-22 or F-35,the PLA is probably getting a better return for yuans, than the Pentagon is for their dollars.
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