The world is burning news. 2 Ukrainian SU-25's shot down. Is anti-air defenses now ascendant?

via NYTimes.

KIEV, Ukraine — Fighting intensified in the rebel-controlled region of Ukraine on Wednesday, with military officials reporting that two Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jets had been shot down near the village of Dmytrivka in the east.
Few details of the latest downings were available. But the news was reported as Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council in Kiev said the military operation to suppress the insurgents was advancing in the east, with government troops having retaken two cities in the Luhansk region as they continued an aggressive push from the north and west.
Officials said rebels had blown up a road bridge, a railroad bridge and train tracks in the city of Gorlivka, and they reported continued fierce fighting along a section of the border with Russia that remains porous. Ukrainian forces are increasingly desperate to seal that border to prevent resupplies of weapons or new fighters from entering Ukraine.

The title of this post is poorly worded but it does get me to the point.  Either we're seeing extremely poor airman-ship by the Ukrainian Air Force or it appears that anti-air defenses are ascendant and are finally holding their own against air power.

This has bearing on the US way of war.

Why?

Because we have a basic playbook.  First we send in UAVs and gather intel on potential targets...while attempting to learn about enemy air defenses.  Then we move on toward launching a full broadside of attacks against those defenses using cruise missiles, stealth aircraft etc...finally once those defense are down we go after command and control, strategic targets and once the USAF gets around to it their actual forces that will be attempting to put steel on American grunts closing with the enemy.

But what if we're seeing all that change.

What if UAVs will not be allowed to fly in even "limited" war situations?  What if medium altitude attack is challenged and not permitted?  What if close air support is actually fought with manpads all over the battlefield?

The threat forces have read our playbook and will act to prevent us from doing what we've become accustomed to.  They will challenge us and I'm afraid I don't see us developing any answers (well, the USN is, but the USAF, USMC and our allies are all looking slack eyed and silly).