Tuesday, February 03, 2015

Council on Foreign Relations Blog questions arming Ukraine.

via CFR Blog...
But will the death of a few more separatists and destruction of Russian equipment achieve the political objective—changing the calculus of Putin’s thinking in order to compel him to endorse a genuine settlement. This is improbable, and there are two more troubling and foreseeable pathways that could unfold: it demonstrates that Ukraine is actually not that important to the transatlantic alliance, and this limited capability is the maximum of what the United States and NATO will do (this seems most likely); or, it triggers Putin to double-down on his support for separatist forces and non-uniformed Russian security forces in Ukraine to firmly establish facts on the ground before those capabilities are fully integrated into Ukrainian security forces, which could take nine to twelve months (this escalation concern seems less likely).
Read it all here.

On this one...I JUST DON'T KNOW.  This is one of those issues where the general public just doesn't have enough information to make an informed decision.


  1. I support Ukraine but I`m against giving them more arms.

    Lets say US supplies Ukranian army with 50 launchers and 500 missiles of Javelins and same amount of TOW`s.

    What will Putin do?
    Send more of his own men, more of his own army assets in to Ukraine.
    He`ll do EVERYTHING,EVERYTHING to prove and show Poroshenko that he cant win this conflict with military.
    That already happened back in August when Ukranian army was likely 2-3 more days from taking every single city in Donetsk and Lugansk.

    My suggestion?
    Send US troops under disguise in Ukraine to work on counter-intel, electronic warfare.
    Unleash NSA and all other assets to weed out Russian spies within Ukranian military,police,institutions.

    1. And supply Ukraine with cheap, easy to use non-military,pure surveilance drones.
      Something that amateurs are doing all the same with mounting GoPros on their toys - just en masse.

      Give them IR cams, give their air assets an upgrade (Poles could help there a lot).

    2. Send in the NSA
      And give Putin an in depth look at how US counter intelligence works, possibly even infiltrate the NSA...

      What are recon drones going to do for Ukraine at this point?
      Russia uses drones to spot Ukrainian troop concentrations and the bombards them with artillery

    3. Send in the NSA
      And give Putin an in depth look at how US counter intelligence works, possibly even infiltrate the NSA...

      What are recon drones going to do for Ukraine at this point?
      Russia uses drones to spot Ukrainian troop concentrations and the bombards them with artillery

    4. He most likely already knows how NSA and US counter-intel works, thanks Mr.Snowden - hope you rot somewhere in the suburbs of Moscow.

      Besides, Im not saying give the tech to Ukraine - move US EW,counter-intel troops to Ukraine and let them work under disguise from there.

    5. First, this is a U.S. inspired tragedy as Western intelligence tries to pull a coup de tat as they did in the Arab Spring (and indeed as the CIA is /good at doing/, all the way back to the 50s) and it has backfired to a massive degree because the Russians have made a "You shall not pass!" counter ultimatum from within the security of their own population's nationalist beliefs.

      A population which is sick of exploitative capitalism and longs for the security of the old days when mafia 'Oligarchs' would have been strung up and then shot at Lefortovo.

      Add to this the reality that the Crimea is a warm water port and potential entry point for Western Forces looking to threaten the Baku and East Caspian petrogas fields but it is _not_ a protection from a straight rush east through the Ukraine and you have a real understanding of what the DPR/LPR standup independent enclaves are about: a blocking force to bulwark the approaches to Russia's money maker and a leap off point to check Western deployment of SM3IIa/b into the Ukraine as overwatch on the Russian missile fields. Add to this the loss of all that farmland and you have four good reasons why Russia will _never_ let the Ukraine go.

      Because they correctly see this move as the first step to national disenfranchisement and NWO One World Government where they are just observes from the fragmented corpse of Russia.

      Ethnic Russians and Ukrainians have lived in peace for decades, not always liking each other but separated regionally enough within the Ukraine that they were not at each other's throats either. It took U.S. and Western intervention, first by treaty and then by active collusion to destabilize the government, to make this Twilight 2000 condition reach such a deadly flashpoint condition.

      If this is honestly the 'necessary next step' perspective of the U.S. that we blame others for what we have induced ourselves, then we have been seduced to evil and deserve to lose.

      Having said this, my take on drone jammers is one of derision. Because where the U.S. may look on endurant UAVs as Predator and Reaper or even RQ-170 level persistent platforms, the Russians invested in the Tu-143/243 Reis platforms which have more in common with the BQM-74 or Mirach series target drones (500 knots, 6G emulation) than any 110 knot Pchela. They can take pictures and then zoom back to a safe point within their own lines to DL the product and then go take some more, para-recovering the recce drone when it runs out of gas.


    6. Furthermore, the Russians know our playbook all too well, from 1991 when we were shooting down Iraqi MiG-25s to keep them from seeing the VII Corps 'left hook', to 2003 when Operation Airborne Dragon hid behind the refusal to allow U.S. forces to deploy from Turkey and the focused attention on the push to Baghdad up the Highway 6 corridor, the Russians will suspect that we are jamming and/or shooting down, their recce solely to hide our own operational prep.

      This will throw them into paroxysms of paranoia that we are laying the ground work for a major incursion by using special forces to rapidly stabilize the lines with high tech ATGW like Spike and Javelin to hit their mobile group mechanized forces and particularly artillery wherever we find them.

      They will not sit still and let that happen as indeed, I believe Russia will nuke-flat the entire Ukraine as an object lesson in the stupidity of pushing them in their own SOI rather than be driven from it. This is their Cuba and they have nothing left to trade for being left alone.

      At which point, you have to consider what will happen if our blatant aggression and their intelligence reveals of it similar to Adlai Stevenson's famous speech to the UN leads other, outside, organizations (some of which Russia but not the U.S. are parties to), creates a massive backlash of economic counters to our actions. I am speaking of the Schengen and SCO entities.

      The stupidity of the Syrian gas attack sponsorship should have taught us that the Russians will always have their own zinger with which to counter our regional intelligence operations and you can be assured that this level of counter-intelligence awareness will be very high in their own backyard where they have had decades to get people into higher echelons.

      The Ukrainians are military incompetents with multiple decades of poor funding and corruption having ruined their forces. To get them into a position where they are not completely backfooted by Russian maneuver forces, will _require_ SOCOM level commitment to fight their war for them.

      But SOCOM stabilization doesn't buy a window to set up a Western Ukrainian NATO applicant condition. It buys us tank divisions moving south with massive conventional Iskander attacks on airfields, road and rail chokes to keep Western ABCTs from even getting to a position where they can maneuver cohesively to block and roll back the threat.

      We will lose. Ukraine will lose and even if Russia cannot remain an effective ground presence, due to tactical airpower overhead, they will make such a ruin of the Ukraine that they may not even need the nuclear card to render our own occupation impossible.

    7. Are we talking about the same forces that tried to take the Donetsk airport for like, over half a year? Because if we are, then the only thing they can do well is wave the nuclear card around.

    8. Elderrer, this is one time I think your techphilia is making you overestimate the efficiency of C4I. Intel is a "force multiplier", but anything multiplied by 0 is still 0. You need equipment, guns and men to give your information effect, otherwise, it's just watching while you get run over.

      Send the NSA all you want, but unless there are guys with guns, missiles and grenades, it's not going to do much. And unfortunately, Putin can ante up a lot more than the west, he's closer to his supply lines and recruitment centers.

  2. Everything is surrealistic... Russians send weapons, "volunteers" and ammo by thousands of tons and don't give a shit what the world would think. US and rest of Europe don't send any weapons because what would Russia thinks.

    This is bullshit!

    1. Russia is going to do what it has been doing since the Korean War. Playing everyone for a fool.

  3. There's a limit how much troops Putin can commit to Ukraine-front as officially they should not even be there. Due to this, sending hitech gear and weapons wont automaticly mean that Putin goes crazy-nuts.

    Russian economy is heavily crashing down, Putin's adventure in east-Ukraine will be over in a 1-2 years if Ukraine gets some better tools to hold the line like counter-fire radars. Re-armament and modernization of Russian army is not ready yet, this is also limiting Putins options.

    1. In 1-2 Ukraine wont have even basic means to defend itself - nevermind the actually sinking economy which cant and wont be mended as long as the war lasts.

    2. Ukraine is already bankrupt, and for some reason I don't see the EU providing tens of billions of Euros every couple of months for Ukraine to keep fighting.

      Well, maybe. After all, they had no problem loaning Greece money they could never pay back...

    3. Because EU isn't equal to Poland/GB/US? stop saying EU, they started this, we just went with the sanctions, and you can confirm this by how much we reacted to Tsipras looking for Russian aid(in exchange for a veto on exports).

      Integrating Ukraine would have been possible in a decade from now, but right now no one had the less interests in their EU entrance, only a blind couldn't have realised what it would have created.

  4. The US screwed up (yet again) with its coup, and since Ukraine is in Russia's sphere, and not the U.S.'s, Russia is in control, as it should be. There's no way to change reality. The US can't (shouldn't) do its "counterinsurgency" fiasco in yet another country. Any aid is wasted. Ukraine is now deep in financial crisis -- thanks to the U.S. and its thoughtless foreign policy. As Kenny Rogers said:

    If you're gonna play the game, boy
    You gotta learn to play it right
    You've got to know when to hold 'em
    Know when to fold 'em
    Know when to walk away

    1. Bacon, you do realize that the old man died at the end? Might not want to identify with him too much.

  5. I do not get the main sense of the article (may be my bad English) – what is the author’s proposal: to performance lethal assistance to Ukraine or not?
    If put aside the regular Western ignorance that Putin is a key-factor here (tremendously wrong at my take) I’m sure that acquisition/non-acquisition of lethal material to Ukraine – is a fake agenda. What possibilities I see here at first glance:
    First : set Ukrainian military groups against each other because of the acquisitions. It Is not second-hand military jackets or mattresses, no serious person is interesting about. NATO’s AT systems, for example, are real tidbits worthy to compete.
    Second: To buy for investigation in RFF’s military institutes interesting examples of NATO’s material.
    Third: Capture alive NATO’s agents and officers, controlling the acquisitions. It would be a real jack-pots.
    Another words, acquisitions as such – solve one problem, but cause another one. IMHO, it must be a system of variety measures, but to establish the system the West have to determine measure of involvement in the Ukraine-war. But whatever involvement means large expenditures, no one wants to pay.

  6. Putin is still pissed off at the west over Libya. He signed off on the UN resolution to allow for a No Fly Zone that NATO quickly turned into a regime change mission. Russia lost billions of dollars worth of arms deals with Qaddafi and that's why he was so staunch with us over Syria and now Ukraine. He feels like we lied to him and screwed him over with Libya so he doesn't trust us.

    If the west was serious about repairing relations with Russia they would stop talking about expanding NATO eastward.

    What really has me pissed off about all of this is that the US is imposing sanctions on Russia over Ukraine that are causing all sorts of damage to the global economy, but Ukraine is not even remotely related to our national interests or national security.

  7. Dead Russians in numbers large enough to force the gen pop to feel the cost of empire is the only think that will change Putins mind. Aggressors are not stopped by soft words and "understanding" they are stopped when they face physical resistance resulting in enough pain.

    Why would the US not help Ukraine, they are willing to fight for themselves, they are western leaning, and they are now the front line buffer what ever? Should we instead wait for a future were Russia will have a stronger military, the gen pop will be embolden by Ukraine's ease, were we get to fight in a group of baltic states that is a appendage (see map). The baltics are a envelopment planning threat from hell also, did I mention those states combined have less than half the military power, population, and territory to make the fight in. It is like all the idiots on the left that thought the "good war" "smart power" was making the main battlefield in the stan at high altitude, middle of BFE, illiterates, landlocked, infantry mountain fighting, rather than Iraq.

    Its a mute point anyway O is not going to do anything. He just doesn't want to make it to obvious to the US gen pop he actually is purposefully taking US down a notch. Hey Medelev "let Putin know I will have more flexibility after the election". If weapons actually are going to Ukraine it is more than likely from Poland and maybe a few other east europe nations that understand now in Ukraine is allot better than tomorrow in their yard.

    Ukraine has allot of potential that if successful would really bring allot to the western camp. If Ukraine goes so goes the Caucus, the stans, Belarus, and at that point I don't know if NATO could hold the Baltics short of going full alt. Providing allies weapons to defend form buffers for you with is always going to be cheaper than waiting and fighting even a limited war yourself.

    1. The US has no strategic or financial interest in Ukraine (other than Biden's son's employment) but Russia has an historic interest, plus Ukraine is right on its doorstep. The potential extension of NATO to Russia's border is not comforting to Moscow, and Russia was naturally not amenable to giving up its naval base in Crimea.

      If Ukraine has a lot of potential it's well-hidden. Eastern Europe as a whole has not done well, except in its capital cities, compared to western Europe and Ukraine especially its western two-thirds is poor. Russia doesn't want anything except to protect its ethnic allies in the eastern corner, and doesn't have any interest in the rest of it. Let Europe provide the billions of euros Ukraine needs.

      So Obama was stupid to instigate the whole thing, but not so stupid to stay involved now that it's gone south.

    2. @Russia doesn't want anything except to protect its ethnic allies in the eastern corner


    3. to C-Low
      @Dead Russians in numbers large enough to force the gen pop to feel the cost of empire is the only think that will change Putins mind.@

      It looks like politics such level, as Putin is, keep personnel loses only as statistics number. And (IMHO) we, Russians, have a paradox type of national temper. The more Russians see their countrymen died the more alive appear under Russian flags to get revenge for fallen.
      It is very interesting thing – fall we (Russia and the West) in direct clash or not and, if fall – how soon??
      How I see the dynamic:
      -the West pushed (via Ukrainian public opinion manipulating) Yanukovich-no-balls to conclusion of “capitulation deed”, named “association with EU”. The deed meant a lot direct economical and even military threat to Russia and Putin’s clan personally. And the deed contented no concrete money for Yanukovich regime.
      - RF gave to Yanukovich concrete 3 milliard $ and proposed another 12 in the nearest Future. Yanukovich took the money and postponed signing of above said “association” deed.
      - The West organized riot and kicked out Yanukovich with hands of neo-Nazi Bandera –wannabe.
      - RF took Crimea and launched Donbass Rebellion.
      - Now is the West’s turn to act. They linger in passive mode.
      With each step - bets rise.
      All bla-bla-bla about hungry Russians now kicked of bloody Putin – is a fake agenda and attempt to cover Western passiveness. Sanctions? The limitation for our oligarchs to visit Western countries and hide their money, stolen in Russia, there? I applaud to such sanctions loudly. Limitation for technology transfer? It has been always – just recall how the West screwed up the “Opel-deed”. Nothing is changed. You call the oil price fall as “Sanctions against Russia”? But for me it more and more looks like that Saudi f@@ked us all and showed “who is the real master of oil here”. And the most noticeable – no one of above mentioned “sanctions” didn’t help a bit to bleeding Ukraine – and can’t help by definition.
      So we see how RF terminated any real threat of “Colored revolution” in Russia. A code-word “Maydan in Moscow” and common Russians appear on the street intending to kick “revolutionists” (we call them “white condoms”).
      But if the West refused awaiting mode and begin to act – supply weapon to Ukrainians, for example – this will case RF act. And the further is very interesting.

    4. the west already at war with russia using their ukraine stooges and polish vassals.. i would love to see the cowardly poles get their due for playong attack dog for uncle sam.. what a really sad state of a failed nation.. pooand never amount to anythin except as german's source of cheap labor.

    5. Wow, Shas is right, one of them must have pissed in your beer. Or stole your girlfriend. Or wife.

    6. Why the hate bunt, poles are great; they are catholic, brave, girls are very fun to hang with and they grow the best apples in europe. And contrary to some actual vassal states in europe and other self magnified " western superpowers" you got to give them some credit, they are acting in the best interest of their nation.

    7. Well I think he is too stupid to understand Sol' warning from yesterday, this time he will be probably baned... the price of being total idiot.

    8. info
      "The more Russians see their countrymen died the more alive appear under Russian flags to get revenge for fallen. "

      History does not show that at all. Resent history Finland Russians got it raw and they stopped. WW2 Russians were slaughtered in mass and surrender in mass, what changed that was Stalin (who has more Russia blood on his hands than anyone ever) , and tales of what the SS was doing behind the german lines to the Russian gen pop (things that would make anyone who valued their families well being fight/die on the front). Afghanistan bloodied, drained and retreated.

      Bottom line WW2 was a war of survival straight up ole school terror dome two man enter one man leave rule no choice pit fight. Short of that no historical record of Russians flocking to avenge the death of their brethren. Like everyone else they rage war and if it goes bad the people don't support it. Georgia was easy/low cost it begot, Crimea it was easy/low cost it begot, EUkraine if it is easy it will continue, if it is hard expensive it will stop.

      I am guessing you are Russian or of Russian origin if Russian I feel for you, if origin I feel for your family. Very simply Putin will not end well for Russia. Dictators never do and dictators that get a jolly off empire always end badly for the people they claim to rep. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely, that is why regular rotation of leaders is a must, we use 8yrs. Elections without term limits doesn't help it may even actually worsen the negative human nature. Even the best of us humans can fall victim to self grandeur, over confidence, personal delusion, its human nature. Dictators are especially vulnerable, once they make it to the top a circle of yes people form, and everyone else becomes to scared to say the truth. After all in modern Russia reporters can end up in accidents, business men can lose their licenses, musicians can go to prison, organizations can be labeled western funded then banned, and hell even billionaires can wake up in prison on questionable charges their assets/business seized and auctioned for pennies to X crony.

    9. to C-low
      @Resent history Finland Russians got it raw and they stopped. @
      If you mean Finnish campaign of Soviet army – all main aims was fulfilled this time, through an ass as it often be, but nevertheless.

      @WW2 Russians were slaughtered in mass and surrender in mass@
      Yeah! I know the theory! And then General-the-Cold established a red flag on taken Reichstag building. Russians were not involved at all. No doubt. Bgggg.
      An idiotic clown’s mod off.
      Sir, a lot of my own ancestors draw their duty for the sake of Mother-Russia: on our own soil, including Belorussian forests, in Poland, in Germany and against Japanese, not to mention regular military service. And I tried to do my best when I was in charge too. I know real examples, familiar to me, how Russians show our national temper at wars. So, when I tell: "The more Russians see their countrymen died the more alive appear under Russian flags to get revenge for fallen. " – I have something behind it.

      @Afghanistan bloodied, drained and retreated.@
      Completely disagree. But it is a long story I prefer do not disclose here, respect of Solomon’s duty in Afghanistan.

      @who has more Russia blood on his hands than anyone ever@
      Vast majority of Russians (including me) disagree with you. You know, recently I was in family of one of my best friends. We were sitting near table, full of yummy things, drinking tasty vodka and chatting. But suddenly, a my friend’s relative, about 60 years old veteran of Afghanistan war, stand, moving to a kitchen and returned with two little “magnets for placing on a fridge door”. On one was photo of Brezhnev, on another – Stalin’s one.
      “Why Stalin?” – I asked.
      “Mmm. It is very simple, when “Iuosi” was in charge – each year prices became lower, and salaries became higher. And never again after him”.
      End of the story.

      @EUkraine if it is easy it will continue, if it is hard expensive it will stop. @
      Only time will show.

      @I am guessing you are Russian @
      Yes, I’m.

      @Very simply Putin will not end well for Russia. @
      May be, who knows? But we have no another decent alternative.

      @Dictators never do and dictators @
      At my take he is far away from dictator being – very soft, some times even weak.

      @Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely,@
      @After all in modern Russia@

      Yes, it is not good, but not only in Russia. We have a lot of pluses as well. For us it is an extreme situation if a policemen killed a man, with out giving the second chance to him. We have no this madness – public propaganda of sexual perversions. As a variant.

  8. Ukraine is the largest country solely in Europe seen here, and we are concerned with its eastern corner seen here.

    1. Putin wants to control entire Ukraine to prevent it's defection to West, or other countries might follow in the future. Giving some corners of Ukraine to Russia wont solve this.

      Then we have really bad precedent from late 30's about trying to prevent war by concession politics.

      If we look the list:
      Chechenya 1999
      Georgia 2008
      Ukraine 2014

      Putin picks fights that he can win and targets get bigger because Russian army is re-building from the Soviet crash. Only reason why Putin is not challenging NATO in Baltics is because Russian army not ready for that, yet. With cover-semi-proxy-denial tactics it will just matter of time when heavily armed men pop-up somewhere in Baltics and then it will be about sending USA marines to battle, not javelins and radars. This is why some think its better to have this war in Ukraine, now, rather than elsewhere later.

    2. @Only reason why Putin is not challenging NATO in Baltics is because Russian army not ready for that, yet. @
      For what - to challenge NATO in Baltic?

    3. @Putin picks fights that he can win@ Who doesnt.
      @This is why some think its better to have this war in Ukraine, now, rather than elsewhere later.@

      Do you really think some javelins and military advisors are going to change the course of the war? Western assistance its overblown and by watching the sorry state of the army and the ukranian state in general, the only thing that you will get for your money is the same thing you are getting right now in syria. Your weapons in the hand of your enemies either by capture or sold by the corrupt "friendly" soldiers and officers you are so eager to support.

  9. Russia will start to feel the heat from the sanctions only around late 2016 or early 2017. The west can either wait and let Putin run loose for the time or slow him down.

    1. Wait isn't -5% GDP drop enough heat?

    2. Not only GDP is dropping: Russia Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves (Russia savings) are dropping at an alarming rate: U$ 100 billions in 6 months (july 2014- january 2015). At this rate, Russia will be unable to pay foreign debtors in less than 2 years but long before it, they will be unable to get more money from abroad.
      Keep oil prices under U$60 and Russia wil, once more, suffer an economic meltdown in less than 2 years.

    3. Oil price is by a large margin the no.1 pain in Moscow

    4. @Meriv
      No. If you want to make Putin change course you have to make him worry about just how loyal a hungry chehcen is.

    5. Jokuvaan you are on the money although I would go with MrT on the sanctions, they are really just O trying not to look like a wimp. The Saudi's are the key punisher here, they are pissed about Syria and beating Russia/Iran with the oil whip. They are a petrol state too but they have enough potential production to keep up the system with sheer volume production.

  10. Ukraine has a large military industry and could make most of the weapons they need if they had money. They have something worth selling, the Antonov AN-70. Great plane, better than A400M or C130J and costs less. The US should buy the intellectual property rights and have (I hate saying this) Lockheed Martin build them. That would be a win-win for US and Ukraine.

  11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g05kXeULis

    The Rebels clean up remains of Ukrainian troops in Uglegorsk (a pivot point in Debal’tsevo half-pocket). Routine job in general, but I have fun on 20:11 of the footage: a soldier shot under his own feet by accident. A commander noticed it and gave a jab to the soldier. Bggg.

    1. image of fighting positions around Debaltseve here.

    2. There is a more actual map, sir.

    3. So the Novorussians have completely closed the Debaltseve pocket.

    4. @So the Novorussians have completely closed the Debaltseve pocket.@

      Not entirely, sir. In Russian military marks’ tradition – a mere line without “pimples” means operational control – possibility to deploy units in the region, cover them with artillery, control of closest high-points, advantageous for surveillance and so on. According to the map – the road is under their operational control, but rebels I talk with tell that Ukrainians have possibility to use the road (after artillery salvos against the Rebels, with red herrings, under cover of AVs and so on) not for sure, but anyway. As soon as the Rebels establish a permanent road-post there, we can talk about full-pocket situation. But not for sure, nevertheless, Ukrainians have all chances to de-block the pocket.

    5. Looks like they've definitely taken Vuhlehirsk, about six km west of Debaltseve.

      "A military spokesman in the capital said Vuhlehirsk was still contested. But Reuters journalists on the ground were freely able to enter about 60 percent of it and saw no sign of areas controlled by Ukrainian troops. Rebels patrolled casually and were in a boisterous mood, using positions in the town to fire artillery on Debaltseve."

  12. american weapons wont help the ukraine military , do you all need recent examples ? how about the way iraqi incompetently use M1A1 tank and promptly lost them to iSIS ? or how the US weapons dont help the Georgian a bit in stemming the russian tide ?

    1. ... it's a miracle. He finally said something sensible...

      I need a drink.

      Now if only it wasn't still in his anti-US theme. Oh well, it's an improvement. Hopefully a cure is round the corner.

    2. American weapons wont help ukraine for several reasons:

      First, the US is not going to send top notch equipment like javelin or something like that, at least I dont think so. everyone knows Ukraine has african levels of corruption and you have to be stupid to trust them, knowing they can sell those weapons to the Russians.

      Second, Im sure Ukraine has enough means to destroy T64 and T72, be it the ones captured by the insurgents or the ones supplied by Russia, they themselves claim to destroy a russian division every day. I dont think they are getting their asses kicked because of lack of weaponry.

      Third, despite all the wealth and power of the US, trying to beat russia in proxy war near its border seems like a very long shot. to me it sounds more like a feel good political move designed to raise tensions not to win the war.

    3. Fourth, the Kyev junta is relying more on raw conscripts who are suffering heavy losses in their defeats.

    4. @the Kyev junta is relying more on raw conscripts@
      But it is a power anyway. They have a lot of weapon, munitions and AVs - old-soviet, but able to kill nevertheless.

      If they have call-up even 30 000-50 000 conscripts (and they have everything needed for this) – it will cause a great problem to the Rebels.

    5. Info, you might be able to solve one doubt I have, why is the UKR military doing so poorly? I know Russia is supplying the rebels with weapons and some sort of assistance, but still the country is heavily populated, it has its own military industrial complex and has a lot of weapons as you just mentioned. Its the moral that low? can we expect another color coup, I mean revolution against poroshenko? I read they were asking for their resignation and his staff.

    6. Why don't our guys fight like their guys? is a familiar question. --Because the Novorussians are fighting for their survival, and the Poroshenko guys are fighting for Poroshenko, and their weapons are not so good.

    7. There are NO "novorussians" whatever that means... there are some locals and Russian "volunteers". And "Poroshenko guys" are Ukrainians and fighting for Ukraine.

      Don you got your job in RT? Because every day you sound more and more like it...

    8. Shas arguing with Don Bacon is a waste he is a hardcore anti US anti west. He backs whoever or what ever is against the US.the west and/or their interest.

    9. Will you take it from Henry Kissinger?
      news report:
      One of the few prominent Westerners who has dared question the prevailing wisdom on Ukraine is former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who said, in an interview with the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, that the West was exaggerating the significance of the Crimean annexation given the peninsula’s long historic ties to Russia.

      “The annexation of Crimea was not a move toward global conquest,” the 91-year-old Kissinger said. “It was not Hitler moving into Czechoslovakia” – as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others have suggested.

      Kissinger noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had no intention of instigating a crisis in Ukraine: “Putin spent tens of billions of dollars on the Winter Olympics in Sochi. The theme of the Olympics was that Russia is a progressive state tied to the West through its culture and, therefore, it presumably wants to be part of it. So it doesn’t make any sense that a week after the close of the Olympics, Putin would take Crimea and start a war over Ukraine.”

      Instead Kissinger argued that the West – with its strategy of pulling Ukraine into the orbit of the European Union – was responsible for the crisis by failing to understand Russian sensitivity over Ukraine and making the grave mistake of quickly pushing the confrontation beyond dialogue.

    10. to No
      @Info, you might be able to solve one doubt I have,@
      Thanks a lot for your question.

      @I mean revolution against poroshenko? @
      No revolution is possible on Ukraine (IMHO, of course) – only riots and rebellions. And riots are more than possible as well as rebellion and separatist movements in another regions.

      @ Its the moral that low?@
      No, at my take Ukrainians show decent level of moral. In terms of culture they are still Russians, and fight with courage in our cultural code. “Russians never give up!” BUT courage can’t replace organization skill, and this is their key-problem (IMHO).
      First organization problem: decent elder-officers (begging from a battalion commander level) are grew up during decades – going through numerous exercising, drillings and real fight experience (at the best). Ukraine took after a Russian style organization of industry and society – with huge influence of military. It was not comfortable for Ukrainian oligarchs, vast majority of whom came from Ukrainian communistic party top-dogs. So Ukrainian oligarchs year by year torpedo and weaken Ukrainian army: even in number they were reduced from 700 000 at the beginning to 40 000-60 000 (something in this order) before Maydan 2014. And financing of Ukrainian army was poor and reducing too. In this circumstances they have no chance to rise up decent elder officers in number enough. They do it now – on the battlefield, and pay a lot of blood for it.
      Second organization problem and the main: Ukrainian top political leadership still tied very much with Russian oligarchs – it is too long story to describe it properly. Just one example – Poroshenko still have several large industrial enterprises in Russia. I’m a practicing corporative lawyer and I’m absolutely sure that it is impossible in Russia –to have operational industrial objects and not be included in Russian oligarchic circles. This circumstances cause a lot of negative results for current Ukrainian warfare in Donbass campaign.

    11. to Shas
      @There are NO "novorussians" whatever that means... @
      Disagree, pan. Present Russians may be the worst generation ever, a bunch of relaxed and degraded consumers – in numerous conflicts, rose after USSR’s collapse, only in one Russians showed decent level of self-organization and Russian spirit – in the Transdniestria conflict. Now we have another one. In cultural sense the Donbass Rebellion is a protest against forced setting on against Russia (IMHO, of course), against turning Ukrainian locals in russofobic whiners, assimilating idea of cleaning toilets somewhere in Poland as “eurointegration” and “top-dream”. Who knows, may be we will see appearance of new-Russian cultural movement during conflicts in Ukraine (the current Donbass rebellion obviously is not the last conflict) – with being very sensitive to Truth and possibility to fight for the Truth until the last drop of blood, as befit to the true Russians.

      @Don you got your job in RT@
      “Truth is the best propaganda.” Bggggg

    12. Oh info' Stalinist were the much worst, Bolsheviks were much worst... this is not a "perfect" generation but you had worst in history. And most of Ukrainians work in construction business, jut like we work in construction business in GB... the circle of working life (btw: this is related to for post Warsaw pact nations as more tech savy then westerns, more tech schools create more workers less thinkers, I know how to use a monkey wrench or as we call it a French wrench and a screw driver... something that many of my "western" friends can't). The fights in Donbass don't have a cultural background, it is a artificial conflict created by Russia and fueled by Russia not an social experiment.

      You can create some "new Russians" in form of larger social experiment just like Bolsheviks create Homo Sovieticus (a rather failed experiment) but not in that way, as you again create a monster that will eat itself.

      @“Truth is the best propaganda.” Bggggg
      "Nothing is true everything is permitted" ;)

  13. http://s017.radikal.ru/i410/1502/0e/eb8b86755fa9.jpg

    The rebels' so called "armored train".

  14. https://scontent-a-fra.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10443540_845852465474352_1832992540737361603_n.jpg?oh=253b2dd4c03760949b5685b7a3da3b4e&oe=55567507

    Putin’s portrait in Zaharchenko’s (on of Donetsk rebels leader) cabinet. Hmm, the more I know about Zaharchenko the more I like him. Decent leader with charisma, courage and steel balls – and, what is important too, he understands who is true ruler of the region.

    1. He was not a charismatic leader before that... he is only a drone. There are already some "opposition" against him mainly because he is incompetent and well... speak more then act, act before he think, not think at all. And he have a big ego.. he already give himself a 4 different medals. Probably he will be replace soon by Pietrowski.

  15. http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/ivanoctober/50719451/111391/111391_600.png

    Ukrainian “bunker”. I can’t believe my eyes.

    1. "If it is stupid but it works... it's not stupid"

  16. http://defense-update.com/20131108_poland-interested-ukraine-anti-tank-missiles.html . Why send Ukraune anti tank missiles? If they are good enough for a NATO country, why can't Ukraine buy it's own missile?

    1. The would be good enough for everybody, or even more then enough. Corsair is outstanding missile, probably one of the best on the market... it would be fine addition. It's not that they don't have a good missile John, they don't have them on production line or in service. If they hypothetical receive Javelins they would get them now and for Corsairs they need to wait pretty long time to appear in larger numbers.


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