Russia continues to supply huge numbers of military equipment to the terrorists in the Donbas.Has anyone considered that even if this ceasefire is successful, we're looking at Ukraine being chopped up into three different countries (so far)?
This was announced today at a briefing of the ATO spokesman Andrii Lysenko, Censor.NET reports.
"Despite statements by high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation on the absence of Russian military equipment and troops in the territory of Ukraine, on the night of Feb. 12 there was another redeployment of 50 tanks, 40 MLRS (Grad, Uragan, and Smerch) and the same number of armored vehicles through the Russian-Ukrainian border near Izvaryne," he said.
Earlier, the National Security Council stated that the hottest spot in the East of Ukraine is the area of the Debaltseve town, where the enemy is attempting offensive operations.
Even if peace is achieved the results are a setback for the West and the Ukrainian govt.
And why Russians should stop reinforce own forces there, that would not make any sense. They need to replace dead men, evacuate wounded, resupply units with ammo, fuel and everything. Replace losses in equipment. Ukrainians take losses but they also take losses... war need more "fuel" to work.
ReplyDeleteCasefire if even will be some will enter in "power" in the Sunday... to that time, "Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war".
What I am most interested is how Poroshenko will sell it at home.
ReplyDeleteThere will ultimately need to be concessions made in any negotiated end to a war of this level, such as the catastrophic escalated standoff in East Ukraine today. Concessions will need to be sold, sure. Not every side will be satisfied fully. Some elements on either side will of course never be satisfied.
DeleteThere apparently needs to be significant issues still resolved in detail, in order for this peace-deal to be implemented and of course, if the peace-plan is indeed a ruse and rogue military forces are secretly being reinforced and mobilizing for a full-on assault plan to unilaterally assert total control as far as say, Mariupol, Odessa and even beyond...then of course it's irrelevant as to the political aspect of needing to sell the current plan. But if some form of autonomous powers are conceded to E Ukraine in the deal to restore Ukrainian sovereignty and national control of border with Ru Fed, then it's the hard cold reality. Ukraine has a long history of constant evolving status and being targeted and raided, etc, being the strategic central point that it is. This is a sad and sorry continuation of that history still today.
There will ultimately need to be concessions made in any negotiated end to a war of this level, such as the catastrophic escalated standoff in East Ukraine today. Concessions will need to be sold, sure. Not every side will be satisfied fully. Some elements on either side will of course never be satisfied.
DeleteThere apparently needs to be significant issues still resolved in detail, in order for this peace-deal to be implemented and of course, if the peace-plan is indeed a ruse and rogue military forces are secretly being reinforced and mobilizing for a full-on assault plan to unilaterally assert total control as far as say, Mariupol, Odessa and even beyond...then of course it's irrelevant as to the political aspect of needing to sell the current plan. But if some form of autonomous powers are conceded to E Ukraine in the deal to restore Ukrainian sovereignty and national control of border with Ru Fed, then it's the hard cold reality. Ukraine has a long history of constant evolving status and being targeted and raided, etc, being the strategic central point that it is. This is a sad and sorry continuation of that history still today.
The "50 tanks" are in addition to the "500 tanks" Poroshenko reported earlier.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the setback, of course it is. This US plot adjacent to Russia never had a snowball's chance of success.
This should be no surprise to anyone. This conflict is escalating, no matter how many cease-fires or agreements you get - Putin is tired of feeling irrelevant and wants to start making waves. European countries (and too many Americans) think that they can cauterize the damage with some type of permanent agreement to end the conflict. They are doing what they are apparently so good at, appeasing dangerous dictators. Last time I checked, this didn't work out too well for them the last time they tried it 75 years ago.
ReplyDeleteHmm 550 tanks and 9000+ men now ,wonder if they all carry russian passports LOL .Desperate PR as Ukraine in for quite a turbulence when Poroshenko will have to explain himself to the war mongering hawks in Rada
ReplyDeleteAny major conflict such as the one in Ukraine is of course a setback for all sides until things finally normalize over time, economies are restored and some trust/cooperation is regained.
ReplyDeleteIt would be an understatement indeed though, to say that Ukraine has had a setback ever since the November 2013 surprise decision by then Yanukovych to play into Kremlin's secret plan for comprehensive regional shift and rejection by Kiev for any closer associate relations w/ EU. And from there, the setbacks obviously took an ever increasingly catastrophic hit after coordinated Kremlin-backed extremist separatists began assaults and incremental takeover of territories militarily in face of the Yanukovych-Kremlin base losing power by parliament and an interim govt. (pre-elections). There is no way in hell that Putin would have accepted such humiliation and disrespect to his new planned order for Europe, with post-election Ukraine deciding to again negotiate closer bilateral associate relations with EU. This is regardless of the status of strategic and military interests Ru govt side had in Crimea.
But it's probably an exaggerated conclusion to draw that even with a 'Peaceful' agreement taking hold in Ukraine, there would be some absolute 'setback' for the 'west' and Ukraine going forward. There flat out needs to be a cease-fire first and then absolutely a restoration of sovereign Ukrainian redevelopment and restructuring process. That's the most critical issue for any security and progress for Ukraine's continued existence and sustainability as an ever-evolving nation-state, in it's long history of over a thousand years. Not focus on the 'setbacks' which there will always be for any and all states and factions, etc.
Regardless, what this hopeful 'Peace deal' produces by the end of this year, is a 'sovereign' Ukraine, with Ukrainian national border guard control with Russian Fed border and removal of foreign militants/military forces and their military hardware, to be replaced with autonomous Police structures (a definite concession by Kiev) in E Ukraine. As such, there is no condition (concession by Kiev) by which E Ukraine will employ a separate military force and/or maintain military hardware/stationing of foreign forces in sovereign Ukraine. Moreover, IMF and EU will reportedly continue to assist Kiev and Ukraine in it's necessary restructuring phase as a nation and give increased financial and economic support accordingly - critical for Ukraine's path to sustainability. That said, it further would seem sensible for at least E Ukrainian and even Kiev to eventually negotiate bilateral trade relations with Kremlin, independent of bilateral associate relations with EU.
Also likely, once this Peace agreement is on track for implementation according to plan, US/EU sanctions will be lifted, as will Russia's ban on imports et al. It would be a mutually positive development and could even allow a foundation for more genuine 'reset'. My optimistic views at least.