Monday, February 20, 2017

EU dream in peril...Le Pen moves up in the polls...

Thanks to William for the link!

via Bloomberg.
 Marine Le Pen gained ground on her rivals
for the French election as she benefits from concerns about
security while other candidates trained their fire on
independent front-runner Emmanuel Macron.

     Monday’s daily OpinionWay poll showed that first-round
support for anti-euro candidate Le Pen rose 1 percentage point
to 27 percent, with Macron and Republican Francois Fillon
unchanged at 20 percent each. While no surveys so far have shown
Le Pen even close to a victory in May’s run-off, she’s quickly
narrowing the gap to her rivals. OpinionWay showed Macron would
defeat Le Pen by 58 percent to 42 percent in the second round.
His advantage has halved in less than two weeks.
       Le Pen is gaining from her tough stance on the disturbances
that flared up across France last week during mostly peaceful
protests against police brutality. The National Front leader is
tapping into voters’ unease after more than 200 people were
killed in terrorist attacks in just over two years and those
sentiments were stirred up again this month when a soldier in
the Louvre fired five shots at an assailant armed with a machete
and crying “Allah Akbar.”

     The spread between French 10-year bonds and similar-
maturity German bunds rose 5 basis point to 79 basis points at
1:37 p.m. in Paris, the widest risk premium in more than four
     “It’s all about security,” said Bruno Jeanbart, director of
OpinionWay. “Le Pen is benefiting from the fact that they’re all
busy either bickering or unable to disentangle themselves from
their many controversies.” A separate Harris poll showed that Le
Pen is considered best placed to deal with security issues.
A common meme from Bush Jr to Obama is that the terrorists aren't an existential threat to the survival of the West but that they can, if left unchecked, alter our way of life if we give into fear.

The problem with that type thinking?

By instituting massive data collection in order to combat terrorism, our way of life has already been changed.  Worse?  The mix of big state surveillance coupled with a laissez faire approach to immigration ensures solutions are elusive at best, doomed to failure more than likely.

But back on task.  Le Pen is stronger than indicated.  My reading of the French is that they're giving her the "Trump" treatment.  French citizens have probably been conditioned to reject her views publicly even though they support them privately.

Take her current level of support and add at least 10 to it and you're probably closer to her real standings in the polls.

My prediction?  Le Pen will win a narrow victory.  That will be the beginning of the end of the EU.  The dream that was the European Union will die because of unchecked mass migration/terrorism.

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