Sunday, July 22, 2018

Is Iran fearful of, or warning us about a possible war?

via Reuters.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday cautioned U.S. President Donald Trump about pursuing hostile policies against Tehran, saying “war with Iran is the mother of all wars”, but did not rule out peace between the two countries.
 Addressing a gathering of Iranian diplomats, Rouhani said: “Mr Trump, don’t play with the lion’s tail, this would only lead to regret,” the state new agency IRNA reported.

“America should know that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars,” Rouhani said, leaving open the possibility of peace between the two countries, at odds since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran’s security and interests,” Rouhani said, in an apparent reference to reported efforts by Washington to destabilize Iran’s Islamic government.
 Separately, a top Iranian military commander warned that the Trump government might be preparing to invade Iran.

“The enemy’s behavior is unpredictable,” Tasnim quoted military chief of staff General Mohammad Baqeri as saying.

“Although the current American government does not seem to speak of a military threat, according to precise information it has been trying to persuade the U.S. military to launch a military invasion (of Iran),” Baqeri said.
Story here. 

I've heard Iranian bluster my entire life, but this seems different.  First you have the threat of war but also (apparently) a hope for peace.  That's unusual if you take away the obvious...they want to preserve the chance for maintaining what's left of the nuke deal with the Russians and EU.

But if you take it at face value then this gambit by the Administration might pave the way for a real deal.

Why do I say that?

They've got to be paying attention to the N. Korean deal.  They apparently know (and I suspect) that part of that deal will probably include some type of security guarantee by the Russians (and/or the Chinese).

If Trump's meeting with Putin can somehow arrange some type of limited agreement (how they'll work it with Iran supporting every terror outfit in the region is beyond me) for protection then maybe they can make lemonade.

Who knows? 

What I do know is that we're seeing a first for the Iranians.  A threat mixed with a hope for peace.

Ya gotta act on openings like that.  Besides if you fail then you've lost nothing...everything simply reverts to the status quo between the two countries....

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