Sunday, October 20, 2019

Sunday quick hit. Turkey is allowing the Kurds (their enemy) to retreat basically intact guaranteeing an ongoing insurgency...

What's worse than a half thought out plan?  A plan that's been done in detail only to be allowed to go off the rails when politics and not tactical reality takes hold.

More to the point.

I'm making assumptions here.

I'm assuming that Turkey prepped the ground for their assault on the Kurds. I know I've watched as they warned any and all that would listen that they would make an incursion into Syria to create a buffer zone (if I recall correctly parts of Iraq were included too).  The warning went on for more than a year.

So when they finally launched their incursion I wasn't a bit surprised.  What did surprise was the ferocity of their assault.  Let's be honest here.  The Turks went all out and unleashed massive air and artillery strikes.  The Kurds without their American benefactors were reeling from the hits.

I'm also assuming that they were aware that Europe and the US would be outraged by this action.  I'm assuming that they were prepared to take the hits on a public relations front and to a degree even economically.

I was wrong.

The Turks are claiming victory.  They're still involved with sporadic fighting, but make no mistake about it.  They messed up badly.

If the Kurds are the terror group that they claim then they lost a massive opportunity to stomp it out.

By agreeing to a ceasefire they're allowing their enemy to retreat in order to muster their strength to fight another day.

The US will turn around and resupply the Kurds.  The Syrian govt will welcome them in order to help reclaim the rest of their nation.

The Turks will have an emboldened insurgency on its doorsteps and will see a slow but steady trickle of dead/injured soldiers returning home.

Turkey isn't a winner in this thing.

Syria is.

Russia is.

The US might be if the goal is to untangle ourselves from the middle east tarbaby.

But Turkey?  Not by a long shot.

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