Friday, March 27, 2020

Coronavirus testing. Number of tests versus per capita number of tests...

Now I'm starting to see how facts and figures are being used to confuse the public.  Well let me be clear.  I see how they're being used to confuse me!

We're on a weird trajectory.

We have indeed conducted more tests of people THAN ANYONE IN THE WORLD.  The problem.  Some in the media are using the "per capita number of tests" to show governmental incompetence.

The number of deaths versus the number of tests indicate we're weathering this storm quite well.

The talk of this being just the beginning of the bell curve is curious too.  via (Feb 2020)
As of February 23, 14 COVID-19 cases had been diagnosed in the following six states: Arizona (one case), California (eight), Illinois (two), Massachusetts (one), Washington (one), and Wisconsin (one). Twelve of these 14 cases were related to travel to China, and two cases occurred through person-to-person transmission to close household contacts of a person with confirmed COVID-19. An additional 39 cases were reported among repatriated U.S. citizens, residents, and their families returning from Hubei province, China (three), and from the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was docked in Yokohama, Japan (36). Thus, there have been 53 cases within the United States. No deaths have been reported in the United States.
From the same report.
 COVID-19 is a serious public health threat. Cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed in the United States, primarily in travelers from China and quarantined repatriates, and also in two close contacts of COVID-19 patients. Currently, COVID-19 is not recognized to be spreading in U.S. communities. If sustained transmission in U.S. communities is identified, the U.S. response strategy will enhance implementation of actions to slow spread in communities (2,6). Implementation of basic precautions of infection control and prevention, including staying home when ill and practicing respiratory and hand hygiene will become increasingly important.

Community-level nonpharmaceutical intervention might include school dismissals and social distancing in other settings (e.g., postponement or cancellation of mass gatherings and telework and remote-meeting options in workplaces). These measures can be disruptive and might have societal and economic impact on individual persons and communities (6). However, studies have shown that early layered implementation of these interventions can reduce the community spread and impact of infectious pathogens such as pandemic influenza, even when specific pharmaceutical treatments and vaccines are not available (7,8). These measures might be critical to avert widespread COVID-19 transmission in U.S. communities (2,6). Mitigation measures implemented in China have included the closing of major transport hubs and preventing exit from certain cities with widespread transmission, cancellation of Chinese New Year celebrations, and prohibition of attendance at school and work (5). However, the impact of these measures in China has not yet been evaluated.
Read the report here. 

My conclusion?

At this point we are on this and we are winning.  No one wants to say it but the introduction of this virus can be traced to foreign nationals, their relatives or people that traveled to Wuhan.

If the 23 of Feb was the beginning of the crisis then we're NOT on a trajectory for this to spiral anymore out of control than it already is.  We've already been thru the storm.  We have indeed bent the bell curve down!

As far as testing?

I believe we're on track with that too.  For whatever reason we're seeing an attempt (in my opinion) to frighten the public and (in my opinion) to wreck the economy.

Terrible forces are at work with regard to this virus.  I can't put my finger on it but if I didn't know better I would think that once again the American people are being put under a huge information campaign designed to sway our opinion to a point of view that I can't make out (again just my opinion...the reporting on this crisis DOES NOT match the least at this point they don't).

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