Friday, August 28, 2020

More bad news. The Missile Marines will probably go below 150K boatspaces...

Dan Goure was talking about LCACs and why the Missile Marine Corps will still need them (he doesn't make a very good argument...the heaviest piece of kit that will go ashore will probably be the HIMARS and that'll be on those tramp steamers Berger wants to buy) and while doing it made this statement...
The Planning Guidance states explicitly that the Marine Corps will no longer be sized or equipped to conduct large-scale opposed landings. 
I've touched on this before but it needs to be highlighted.  The Missile Marine Corps will no longer be sized or equipped to conduct large-scale opposed landings (meaning that amphibious forcible entry is off the table now...the USA is essentially left with Airborne Assault as the only means of putting troops on the ground deep inside enemy territory) AND will no longer be capable of sustained ground combat.

That means that the Missile Marines will get smaller.

In one swift move Berger eliminated Tanks, MPs and a couple other organizations.

You can't bet body parts that you highly value he ain't done.  Have you seen the pics of the unmanned JLTV sporting both a cannon on one variant and a HIMARS pod on the other?

I've given you the bad news that LAR is dead, they just don't know it yet. The same can be said for most of the remaining artillery units.  Check out that pic above.  Unmanned 105mm cannon.  Unmanned 155mm cannon.  Unmanned HIMARS.  And whats with them?  Looks like one MTVR and one JLTV.  That means that one gun crew will probably be paired with "monitoring" those warfighting robots.

Artillery is about to raped by the Commandant (and I don't think he'll use lubricant).

I hear what you're saying.  What does that have to do with the Missile Marines going below 150K boatspaces?

Go thru his hit parade...

1.  Opposed large scale landings are off the table.

2.  Sustained ground combat operations are off the table.

3.  The number of F-35's bought is going to be reduced.

4.  The number of AH-1Zs, UH-1Ys and CH-53Ks kept or purchased is going to be reduced.

5.  He has stated in his planning guidance that HE WILL shed personnel to pay for "modernization" (read that to mean buying anti-ship missiles).

Long story short?  The Missile Marines could possibly go down to 100K and HQMC will claim ENHANCED combat power while not being capable of doing what it once did.

The real question that must be asked.

Why did Berger CHOOSE to go this route?  Why did he determine that limiting the Missile Marines to one unique mission set in one theater was a better way to go rather than simply seeking to add a capability to that Marine Division that is assigned to the Pacific (he also said that we will no longer see mirror divisions/MEUs...with that being the case why didn't he simply tailor the 3rd MARDIV to operations in the Pacific?).

My belief?

I don't think this is about helping fight the Chinese.  The token forces arrayed against the Chinese armada will see the sea battle lost and those Missile Marine forces on land isolated, fixed and destroyed.  The contribution to the sea battle will be too small to make a difference and the ability to repel a Chinese amphibious assault has been pissed away.

So what is it!

It's about budgets.  This is about money.  This is about tucking underneath the Navy because future budgets are gonna be tight as hell. 

My prediction?

The hardwon independence that the greats of the US Marine Corps fought for is about to be given away.  Returning to our naval roots will see the Missile Marines back to what it was before WW2 with the same results.

Berger is breaking the oath.

The Missile Marines will be least prepared when the nation is least prepared.  The CHAOS and FRICTION he's introduced will see any Chinese action against US interests met with the same shock as was seen at the start of the Korean War.

Additionally we'll probably see the Missile Marines pushed back to the sea hoping that the 82nd or Army Rangers can jump in to save them.

It's a bleak future but it's one that's coming this way because we got another transformationalist instead of a leader that sought to steady our ship and get us back on our bearing.

Starting with Amos the Missile Marines will be 0-3.  I doubt the next guy (or gal...that will completely square the circle and I can see it coming...someone we've never heard of too) will be who we need so make that 0-4.  Four failed leaders in a row?  How can any organization survive that? 

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