Saturday, January 30, 2021

Must Read...The U.S. Navy’s Loss of Command of the Seas to China and How to Regain It

 Story here.

A few passages stood out to me...

But the U.S. Navy has now lost its assured command of the seas — for the first time in the post-World War II era — to China in the Western Pacific. In his confirmation hearings for commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in 2018, Adm. Philip Davidson stated, “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.” While China may allow the U.S. Navy (or any other navy) to have peacetime access to the South China Sea, Adm. Davidson made clear he can no longer assure such access to protect U.S. interests if a battle were to erupt since, “there is no guarantee that the United States would win a future conflict with China.”3


 As a result, the U.S. war plan is now to fight primarily from outside what is called the first island chain (of which Taiwan is a part): Long-distance strikes are to be launched as forces surge from the United States to begin “massing” in dispersed areas at a distance beyond the island chain. Aircraft are to head to a distribution of airfields as Marine Corps forces disembark to protect or seize contingency areas for emplacement of U.S. weaponry, with air and missile defenses being key. Eventually, having sustained some attrition, U.S. forces are to advance in a spread out, networked mass.

I found this illuminating.  No where in the Commandant's planning guidance is their talk of having to seize terrain for the Littoral Regiments to fire their missiles, setup FARPS etc...on the contrary, its almost assumed that we can pick a spot almost anywhere we want and get it done with cooperation.  Amazing.

 “Due to the distances involved in the Indo-Pacific, we cannot rely solely on surge forces from the Continental United States to deter Chinese aggression or prevent a fait accompli.”6 Continuing, the admiral advocated for a larger, forward-based force posture: “I believe current forward-stationed naval forces do not provide sufficient support to [Pacific Command] requirements.” But he also stressed significant warfighting deficiencies in the capability of sensors, cyberspace, and undersea warfare, among others.7

Once again I'm stunned.  In order to meet the Chinese in the Pacific its my belief that the Navy would have to do as the Marine Corps.  Basically yield the rest of the planet to the US Army and Air Force and become a one region force.

Are we prepared to do that? I hope not.  But if the Admiral is right and forward basing is the answer then I don't see how it can be avoided.

This generation of politicians and generals/admirals slept (pushed a 20 year fight in the middle east) while the Chinese martialed their strength.  Now I fear its too late.

This guy is hoping that cyber warfare can give us back our edge.  

I don't think so.

At best it can even the playing field in that domain IF WE GET SERIOUS!  But that still leaves the kinetic fight and we're gonna get smashed if what I'm reading is correct.


Berger's plan seems radical but I think its something else now.

It smacks of desperation.

Things have gotten really bad and he's doing his part to try and fix it.  After reading this thing and trying to put it all together it becomes obvious.  The Marine Corps is being wrecked in order to buy time for the Navy to get its house together.

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