Thursday, February 28, 2019

Trump & N. Korea. Rookie mistakes in dealing with the hermit kingdom...

By now you've heard that Trump's efforts at a deal have failed.  I'm sorry to hear that but the writing was on the wall from the start despite my holding out hope for success.  What do I mean?

1.  Trump wanted the deal badly.  When one side seems desperate for a deal, no matter how good the reasons, that side is operating from weakness.

2.  He gave up too much too soon.  Ending military exercises with S. Korea was also seen as a weakness.  Trump gave too much too early.

3.  He put the prestige of the American President front and center and the hermit king is reveling in knocking us down a peg.  A leader never shows up to do the grunt work.  Diplomats do the heavy lifting and then when all the i's are dotted and the t's crossed is when the leaders come together to sign the agreement.  Unfortunately Trump looks like a rookie in his dealings on this one.

4.  He had a weak partner in the S. Korean President.  All of the above that applies to Trump applies to the S. Korean President.  He wanted it too bad.  Much too bad.

Where are we now?

If I was running things we'd go back to where we were but on steroids.  I'd rush every available anti-ballistic missile ship to the region and maybe even roll out a couple of top secret projects for a live field test.

The next US/S. Korean exercise would be bigger than ever.

The sanctions would intensify and I'd force the Chinese to deal with millions of refugees flooding their border.

I'd set the conditions for continued negotiations from a position of strength.  Oh and just for shits and giggles I'd reinforce the 2nd Infantry Division and move the 3rd MEF (Forward) to S. Korea so that they know we're serious about surging forces to the region in case of bad actions (Of course the same applies to Navy and Air Force elements).

That's my plan and analysis.  What's yours?
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Is this the proof of the Mig-21 shoot down of the F-16....




Thanks to Gessler for this find!!!

Good God!  This is why I love this community!  Our core guys can flesh any issue out given enough time (assuming any of it makes it into the open).  Freaking awesome!

What say the doubters now?  Or do you need more proof and remain unconvinced? I'm leaning toward the side that the Indian Migs did indeed bag an F-16.  If it happened like Ron is saying from his sources then why should any of us be surprised.

The commanders on both side of this thing are operating in a vacuum.  They need to keep the losses low enough to prevent an escalation but make a big enough splash to satisfy their countrymen.  I don't even the tight rope they're walking.

It might be false hope but I believe we'll see a DE-ESCALATION soon...unless shit turns pear shaped because someone drives his fangs into the floorboard and decides to take some scalps.

At this time in this dust up the most dangerous thing in the world is a CAPT with visions of making Major while bagging a kill for his resume and a medal.
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Open Comment Post (everything BUT India vs Pakistan). 28 Feb 2019



Sorry guys.  I'm on an "ancient habitation" kick.

Bonus points if you can name the structure below without a Google image search!


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Open thread for discussion of the India vs Pakistan fight...


The main stream media in the US might be ignoring this fight but luckily my readers aren't.  I've decided that we need to setup a designated spot to discuss this topic, to add links that we find and want to share with others and generally chew on what we're seeing and it's implications for the future.

Any and everything is on the table IF it concerns this fight, the tech, troops, equipment, regional implications, etc....

I hope you guys do as always....hit me with stuff that I missed that people in our demographic (meaning interested in military affairs, international affairs, warfare etc...) will be interested in.
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Indian Mig-21 shoots down a Pakistani F-16. How did that happen?


Comment by SNAFU! reader Ron...
All indications are that the MiG-21 successfully engaged in WVR combat with an F-16A and brought it down using an R-73 missile. There were a total of 4 F-16's in the flight engaged with 2 MiG-21s on QRA

The pair of MiG-21 were then engaged by ground based air defenses and one was hit reportedly by AAA resulting in the pilot having to bail out 3km (approx 1.2nm) inside enemy controlled territory. The wingman attempted to turn back and ascertain the downed airman's position but was re-engaged by the remaining F-16s and retreated while being pursued.

At this time the 2nd wave of QRA consisting a flight of SU-30MKI's engaged at BVR. An R-27 was reportedly fired from range of around 40km (25nm) causing the F-16 flight to scatter and retreat at supersonic speed (sonic booms were reported by ground observers). SU-30's did not engage in hot pursuit but remained in patrol orbit on the Indian side of the border
Is Ron correct?  Did it happen this way?  I've been looking but Twitter has turned pear shaped.  I get the distinct impression that the security/intel forces of both nations are trying to "tweak" public opinion.

Ron's accounting of the fight is a bit puzzling although the recent actions of a Super Hornet against one of Assad's fighter planes gives us a clue.

How could 4 F-16's not at least bloody the 2 Mig-21's?

If the Super Hornet encounter is informative then we have a problem with our missiles being spoofed by Russian countermeasures.  Remember the Super Hornet had to back off and fire an AMRAAM to get the kill because the Sidewinder was ineffective.

The idea that these two Mig-21 pilots could enter a 2 v 4, win that fight but lose to ground based anti-air is also instructive.

Fights over the forward edge of the battlefield is fraught with danger.  I hope the Naval Air Arm and the USAF is studying this fight.
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The curious IDF Sherman Degem Yod: a prototype looking for a lower silhouette, made by cutting away part of the hull of the M50, built at Tel HaShomer workshops in 1958


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The B-52 is getting an AESA. Why not the same for our AH-1Z, UH-1Y, MV-22 and CH-53K?


via The Drive.
The addition of a modern AESA radar to the B-52's sensor suite would be a game changer. A radar like SABR offers a dramatic boost in range, fidelity, and flexibility and it would enhance the B-52's targeting, surveillance, and situational awareness capabilities. The ability to make detailed synthetic aperture radar (SAR) maps of the surface of the earth and to provide advanced ground moving target indicator (GMTI) capabilities alone would result in synergistic effects not only for the B-52 itself, but also for other platforms and weapons that can exploit that data in near real-time via data-link

With a radar like SABR, the B-52 could far better identify and engage ground targets in all weather and at standoff ranges. It would also allow the B-52 to be a better anti-ship weapon than it already is, being able to spot vessels and classify them from long distances so that it can employ advanced anti-ship missiles against them. You can read more about this type of scenario here. 
Story here. 

This is probably a batshit stupid idea but I'm wondering.  Why don't we give our helos, the AH-1Z, UH-1Y, MV-22 and CH-53K, AESA radars?  They're supposably scalable, we're talking about operating at great distance with them and they provide the ability to "see the ground" when operating in terrible conditions.

So if they can be built to scale for our helos then why aren't we doing it!  Aviation guys before you slam me explain it!  This seems long overdue and an evolution that is too long in the making.

Consider this a small diversion from our focus on the India/Pakistan fighting.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019

India isn't pumping the brakes...their PM just gave the military the option to go full bore!




Just plain wow.  

Ok.  I'm becoming a bit alarmed on this one.  Not for my sake or the sake of the American people but for my Indian friends.  I was thinking that we'd hear about the EU, US, Russia and China along with several other countries calling a special session of the UN to try and de-escalate this thing.

I thought we'd see some type of shuttle diplomacy from all of the above either together or individually.

No one seems to be moving.

A skirmish seems to be turning into full scale combat right before our eyes.  Hope I'm getting antsy for nothing but this does not look good from my seat.
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What is your take away from the clash between India and Pakistan?


What is your take away from the clash between India and Pakistan?

My early view is that their air arms are facing the same difficulty that we saw in the fighting between Russia/Ukraine and the various rebel factions.  In other words air power was tried early, got bloodied and now they seem to be pulling them back a bit.

Now its a ground fight.  Lots of artillery, a few clashes between infantry units and maybe some Special Ops running around.

Kinda makes you wonder if all the theorists about how the future fight got it all so crooked.

Makes me wonder if aviation (even though both sides were using older aircraft...especially India) is now too valuable to risk in a shooting war.

That's telling.  That should give ground commanders pause.

I've always thought that aviation promised more than it could ever deliver and at least for the time being that seems to be being proven yet again.

But back on task.  What do you guys think?
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IAF Wing Commander Abhinandan after his capture by Pakistani security forces (Probably gonna combine all the tweets of the Pakistan/India conflict into one thread in the AM)





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