I fully expect a more savage fight ahead.

 I've been tooling around the internet taking in all the views of the recent Russian mobilization.

Most have focused on the reports of forced conscription, soldiers being drunk while waiting to deploy and other stories that depict this in a bad way.

I won't even touch on how a mobilization of Western age fighting men would go.  There would be protests and riots all across the Western world.

I will touch on the fight I think is coming up.

I do believe Washington believes the Kremlin when they say that they will go nuclear.  I'm not sure if they have contingency plans ready to go if they do.

But if the allies are able to keep the Ukrainians on a leash and have them push to only recover the lands lost since Feb then I believe we'll still have a problem (oh and make no mistake...the Ukrainians will keep the conflict going because they want that land back...so part 3 will happen).

The Russians know that the new forces are substandard (by their standards!).  They know that their infantry and mech forces will be dog meat to battle hardened Ukrainian infantry.

So this will turn into a more brutal artillery war.

I expect missiles and artillery rounds to be flying hard and heavy. The somewhat limited bombardment of Ukrainian cities will be replaced with full on blasts that will shock the Western world.

I believe that its switched on for Putin and Russian intelligence. 

The Ukrainians are gonna fight and not welcome them as liberators.

What does that mean?

I believe the Russians are gonna get medieval on them.

Don't care how you feel about the guy...this is funny!

OMG 😂 pic.twitter.com/FEwSf6d0xA

— Damon Imani🔅 (@damonimani) September 22, 2022

Iranians are fighting back against their govt. This could be an opportunity...

Don't get it twisted!

The opportunity isn't regime change but a chance to moderate their behavior (if possible).  The West could throw a lifeline to the govt by asking for certain reforms that would help modernize their society.  I'm pretty sure the people would rally behind that.

If we offered increased trade INSTEAD OF sanctions then perhaps we could prime the pump for them to want to join the rest of the world (them being govt officials).

Just an idea.  The over reliance on sanctions has (out of necessity for those affected) created a rival market to that controlled by the US.  If we're being smart we should seek to disrupt moves to the rival market place while we still can.
 

This is incredible - Iranians are fighting back like I’ve never seen before.pic.twitter.com/06zKSUBaeJ

— Gabriel Noronha (@GLNoronha) September 21, 2022

From #Iran, where strong protests continue following the death of Mahsa Amini. Multiple ppl take on an officer. Resistance is very very strong, not like I've seen in many past protests in Iran. The Iranian people are pissed, and rightfully so. pic.twitter.com/bHo46CosDc

— Doge (@IntelDoge) September 21, 2022

Thurs Funny/Crazy/Nasty as hell!

Women 😂 pic.twitter.com/Q7SVrlZUyk

— Wtf Moments (@Wtfmomentes) September 22, 2022

Great thread on why putting floats on a C-130 is crazy, why the Navy letting USAF Special Ops lead the effort is insane, and why they're all stupid for not simply buying the Japanese seaplane!

I’m coming off private to do this. So, some assumptions and issues.
1. This should be a navy capability. But it won’t be. The navy’s current leadership and conversation on acquisitions, especially aviation acquisitions, are akin to a puppy with a hot dog tied to its ass. https://t.co/CVFwKaBtLz

— Jack McCain (@McCainJack) September 22, 2022

Open Comment Post. 22 Sep 22

 

Russia will use nukes to defend annexed territory

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1572877232624009216?t=yxhWDz44qyEgJDSyKLcLrg&s=09

I believe we're headed toward a time of max danger in the Ukraine/Russia war...

Wow.

He did it.  Putin is mobilizing forces.

He made the statement that no option is off the table to defend Russian soil.

A referendum is being called for in the occupied areas.

This is big time dangerous from my chair.  You have two competing visions.  The Russians view parts of Ukraine as there own. The Ukrainians the opposite.

Nukes are on the table, but so are egos.

It should be interesting.  The only good thing is that if things go sideways we should be able to contain the use of nuclear weapons on the European continent.

I don't say that lightly either.

Depending on the actions of the Ukrainians/West and Russia we could see this thing either blow up big or blow up in a contained fashion.

We might be in a place where use of nuclear weapons solely on the tactical level will be seen as a win by both sides.

How could Berger make a push for FD2030 if he didn't have the key piece in place?

 via USNI News.

The Marine Corps and Navy remain at an impasse over the future of the Light Amphibious Warship, as skepticism about the program’s viability mounts due to the internal division, sources familiar with the program have told USNI News.

While the Marines remain committed to their plan for nearly three-dozen beachable ships that can ferry units between islands and shorelines in the Pacific, the Navy wants fewer. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday’s 2022 navigation plan, unveiled in late July, calls for 18 LAWs.

“It’s obviously a big battle within the Marine Corps on where the Marine Corps’s headed and whether the Navy really supports LAW or not,” said one person familiar with the discussions on LAW.

But as recently as last week, the Marine Corps said it wants as many as 35 LAWs to achieve its vision for operations in the Indo-Pacific, which would include smaller units moving between islands and setting up ad-hoc bases from where they could fire anti-ship missiles off of the chassis of a Joint Light Tactical Vehicle.

Here 

Ignore the debate over the numbers (although that is fascinating), and ignore the fact that the VERY VIABILITY of this program going forward is in doubt (the Navy is focused on its surface warfare fleet...I imagine the thought is that amphibious forces are well taken care of with current procurement).

I want to focus on how FD2030 came to be.

How it was planned.

What decisions were made and how much risk was assumed.

EVEN IF YOU MAKE THE CASE THAT FD2030 IS ESSENTIAL.  EVEN IF YOU STATE THAT THE COMMANDANT DID THE RIGHT THING IN PUSHING IT!

How do you explain him making such a seismic shift in Marine Corps culture if he didn't have this part of the plan laid out in stone?

I've talked about what it takes to be a "change agent". I've talked about how you MUST get institutional buy in and how you have to have the end state of your change fully envisioned.

It appears that Berger didn't.

Now?

Now he faced with a huge problem.  No doubt they'll be able to round up surrogate ships but the platform needed to make his dream reality is probably beyond his reach.

I don't quite know what his vision actually is.  I don't think anyone outside of his inner circle really understands this monstrosity (God knows they have trouble enough trying to explain it).

One thing is certain.

The Marine Corps has once again decided to submit itself to  Navy control (while ignoring the needs of Combatant Commanders that might require Marine Corps units...guess they have to request a Naval Task Force now) and the Navy just tossed out the reason why that MIGHT have made sense.

I called it.  Force Design 2030 accomplished one thing.  Making the Marine Corps the Navy's bitch once again.

The Moog Reconfigurable Integrated-weapons Platform recently performed in a successful live fire event at Putlos Bundeswehr range in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

The Moog Reconfigurable Integrated-weapons Platform recently performed in a successful live fire event at Putlos Bundeswehr range in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. #RIwP will be on display with #DirectedEnergy capabilities in October at #AUSA2022, learn more https://t.co/ZPD9Ty23aX pic.twitter.com/LobjeYLa6e

— Moog Space & Defense (@MoogSDG) September 20, 2022