Combat footage from the AFU showing them abandoning a disabled Bradley

 

⚡️Combat footage from the AFU showing them abandoning a disabled Bradley

This is most likely the same pile that we’ve seen today. pic.twitter.com/DiiKcxsD2g

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 10, 2023

We don't know if this was the actual assault against Russian lines or just a probing attack. Either way its doom on Ukrainian Commanders for doing this to their troops. Oh and for Ukrainian propaganda for making this war seem like a game when they were plinking individual soldiers. One last one. For the body count bastards that used lost lives as some kind of statistic to measure wartime success. We learned better back in Vietnam.

Open Comment Post - Ukraine War Discussion - 10 June 23

 

This thing is heating up and since the purpose of open comments is for me to pick up on things I decided to split them up.  OCP-UKWD is solely about the war in Ukraine.  Nothing else.  The regular OCP is gonna be for other developments.  

I know it seems awkward to split it up but the OCP-UKWD needs its own space.

Open Comment Post. 10 June 23

 

Did ya miss it? The US SecDef announced another 2.1 billion dollar aid package for Ukraine

 

The security assistance to Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues.

Today's $2.1 billion USAI package underscores our commitment to Ukraine's defense by continuing to provide additional capacity over the long term.https://t.co/kM1WUUSb1D

— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) June 9, 2023

We have limited visibility of the battlefield (soda straw effect) but we can glimpse and deduce a few things. The main one is that whenever things are going sideways for Ukraine, the Ukrainians will either yell and shout for a particular weapon system (MLRS, UAVs, Close The Sky, Abrams/Leopards, Anti-Air Missiles, recently F-16s etc...) or the Pentagon will step up and send them what they think they need.

In this case they're sending anti-air missiles (have seen some really rough tweets saying that Russian attack helicopters are making a mess of Ukrainian armor) and Puma uavs.

The Pumas are really interesting.  They're used by infantry which seems to indicate (at least to me) that the Ukrainians are having a bit of difficulty locating Russian fighting positions as they advance.

I talked yesterday about that armor cluster of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles and I suspected that they weren't able to orient to where they were taking fire.

The Pumas should be able to help with that.

Consider this another data point to indicate that the Ukrainians are having a rough go of it.

God I have too vivid an imagination and these pics of the bunched up/burned out armor is nightmare fuel

Every time I look at these pics it gives me slight chills.  I have an active imagination and see it playing out in my head.

A quick brief by the battalion commander.  Short ride to the front. Started firing main guns, hitting nothing but the activity alone is good at least for morale.

They start taking incoming.  The mine plow is hit (looking at the top pic).  The trailing Leopard leaps forward to provide cover and is knocked out by anti-tank missiles.  The Bradley closest to the pileup was trying to pick up injured and dismounts when it got hit too.  The Bradley farthest away was still operational while all this was happening and was trying to put down fire but couldn't orient on the proper direction (or maybe they did) but before they could assess the situation, understand that all was lost they finally joined their brothers in heaven, hell, Valhalla...pick your hoped for destination.

Just like the Russian forces that mounted their assault into Ukraine, the Ukrainians are finding that defense is alot easier than offense.

This is war porn and it sucks but we need to see what's happening.

Now do you understand why I want this war turned off?  With the dam break, all the lives lost, all the people that have left, the infrastructure damage, the damaged children and the rampant corruption that makes current and future aid half as effective as it should be.  Do you know what the result will be?

Ukraine will be a broken shell of a country for at least 50 years IF THEY'RE LUCKY!

This is crazy! Muslim & Christian families unite to stomp on pride flag

 

Multiple arrests have now been made. Muslim and Christian families have joined forces during the protest. This is wild: https://t.co/kWzpZH6L5M

— Keean Bexte (@TheRealKeean) June 9, 2023

You know shit is getting goofy when you have Muslims and what I would assume to be fundamentalist Christians uniting.

I read reports of it but the Russian advantage in electronic warfare is thwarting Ukrainian fire support in my opinion.

 I see so many interesting Tweets and articles that I fail at times to save them.

One I saw that I should have posted on was the tremendous effects that Russian electronic attack was having against Ukrainian drones.

I've been watching the counteroffensive and I believe that's the secret sauce to nullifying Ukrainian counterbattery ops.

The Russians are killing Ukrainian drones with electrons and they can't get targeting data.

That's part of the reason why they can't put down effective fires for their forces going forward.  Or so I think.  Anyone have a better explanation?  Meanwhile I'm going try and find those tweets/articles.

More vids of Western armor getting shredded. A Leopard 2 & a couple of Bradleys

Leopard 2 get Kornet pic.twitter.com/ZQvTZP2SMb

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) June 9, 2023

2 Breadlys pic.twitter.com/KhIMbhbd9M

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) June 9, 2023

I have to wonder what NATO was thinking.

Did they think that combined arms was easy?  Did they think that green troops could go into battle against guys that had been living in the mud and muck sporting anti-tank missiles and supported by artillery and being channeled not only by defenses but by terrain would win?

And for the love of God why would they send these guys in basically bare tanks/IFVs against this?  Surely this would have been a great time to test Trophy in combat wouldn't it?  At least add extra armor onto the vehicles.

War porn sucks but I posted when the Ukrainians were plinking Russians so I'll do it when the reverse is happening.

One thing I find striking.

We instinctively know how the fighting is going because the Ukrainians have been gleefully posting about their battlefield successes before but now in the middle of their counter offensive are silent.

The silence is telling.

Damn! Ukrainian armor (Western supplied) is getting shredded. Plus this counteroffensive was ill timed....I think I know why.

 Thanks to Bakhmut "Bob" Zelensky for the link!

Bro😳 pic.twitter.com/aiJCt2K5sP

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) June 9, 2023

The video shows additional damaged or destroyed vehicles, including wheeled vehicles. Many of them were not catastrophic kills, which means the crew/dismounts likely survived. 2/ pic.twitter.com/ggKzdi21Lm

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 9, 2023

I wondered how Western armor, in particular IFVs would hold up in this conflict. Apparently the same as uparmored trucks. I have to wonder if the idea of IFVs is dead and we just have to accept the reality that what we really have are armed APCs. Of course we have no visibility on their tactics so it could be as simple as bad tactics leading to bad results. Who knows?

On to another issue.

I always thought this counteroffensive was ill timed.  Much of the gear just arrived.  Many of the troops had just completed training.

So why not get them a bit seasoned on the line before launching an assault on a high tech battlefield?

I think its because the EU/US/NATO want this war over and they want it over with favorable-ish terms for Ukraine.

No doubt they have had backroom discussions that Ukraine as it once was will not be restored.

So it wasn't the military that was driving this.  I believe it was politics.  Both internal to Ukraine and to the greater Western world.

Does the Navy & OSD fully back Force Design 2030? Amphibious Ship number beg otherwise.

 via Defense News

The Marine Corps, the Navy and the Office of the Secretary of Defense have differing views on the role of amphibious operations in today’s joint force, and therefore how much money to spend on upkeeping existing ships and building replacements.

&

The Marine Corps has pushed back on this idea, with Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, the deputy commandant for combat development and integration, telling Defense News this year that rough drawings from the Pentagon would reduce the capability of the ships in a way the service finds unacceptable.

The study is due to the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office imminently. It is unclear what will happen once the office receives the Marine Corps’ and the Navy’s input, as leadership has only said the study will inform the fiscal 2025 budget process.

“I’m very pessimistic,” Heckl said during the recent interview about his near-term outlook on the amphibious fleet’s size and readiness. “Until amphibs genuinely become a priority, this will always be a struggle — to procure and then maintain. The fact that these vessels have been ridden hard and put away wet simply exemplifies how useable they are: They are in constant demand.”

He recommended the Defense Department reconsider how ships are funded. Currently, only the Navy can buy those vessels in its shipbuilding account, and only the Navy can maintain them within its operations and maintenance account, even though Marines are the primary beneficiaries of the ships.

Interesting.

The US Army doesn't have to chide the Air Force for rides on its cargo planes.  Hell they even co-located a base to make airborne operations easier.

Yet its the Marine Corps that has been yelling about getting back to its naval roots and talking up naval integration.

It would appear that the Navy ain't too interested.

Personally I believe this was a self inflicted wound.

Berger miscalculated, didn't read the room and pushed for a reduction in amphibious ships.

The bean counters pounced.  Not just Navy but Defense Dept bean counters.

Additionally I believe that with the myopic focus on the Pacific and whatever backroom deals were cut (oh and believe me they were cut...they're priming the Marine Corps family with talk of what missions we'll no longer do) it appears that this lack of shipping might be all part of a bigger plan.

If you can only have so many amphibious ships then you can't be a worldwide organization if you only float your force.

The reality?

Naval integration has failed.  The Navy isn't onboard.  Force Design 2030 has failed.  The widgets to make it work will not be provided.  Looking at you Landing Ship Medium/logistics/casualty evacuation/lack of ground combat capability etc...  

They rolled the dice and lost.