Well at least the stockpiles of toilet paper are being put to good use?

so this is where all the toilet paper has gone pic.twitter.com/zVom1yQ1An

— 🧚🏽‍♂️ (@juustmolls) March 28, 2020

That's a damn shame.  Funny.  Even kinda cute (I like cats) but a waste.  Wonder how many of those unable to get to the store ran out of TP because people hoarded it.

Wonder what the historians will say about us.  A pandemic struck the world and some Westerners decided to hoard toilet paper.  Kinda tells you everything about modern society doesn't it.  Some people are so full of shit that they have to hoard it.

Open Comment Post. 28 Mar 2020

The war games that led to USMC Force Design 2030 must have been awful...

“war games helped shape my conclusion that modest and incremental improvements to our existing force structure and legacy capabilities would be insufficient to overcome evolving threat capabilities.”

The above quote is HIGHLIGHTED and "popped out" in the Force Design 2030 that Headquarters Marine Corps released about two days ago.

I've been chewing on that thing and I keep coming back to this statement.

Kinda stunning isn't it.

In hindsight we should have seen this coming (I guess) cause the Commandant has said things like "China is our pacing threat"..."we can't be wedded to the past" (paraphrasing that one) and other things that should have told us that this was a big deal.

Many, myself included, have focused on the hardware side of this thing.  But if you step back and look for cause then you can see it above.

War games obviously showed us getting smashed...or in a fight so hard that it stunned participants.

The question is no longer whether or not this will happen.  I don't think this plan will survive Congress or the defense contractors in its current form, but one thing is clear.

The Marine Corps is changing to meet the Chinese threat.  The only question that remains is whether or not this NEW Marine Corps will be of any use outside the Pacific.

Instead of a "stay at home" order would we be better to VIGOROUSLY enforce an "everyone wears a mask and gloves" order?

So this is not a randomized trial of individuals but does it approximate a cluster randomization by Country?

Is this data sufficient to make the causal inference that masks prevent new cases and flatten the curve or is it too confounded?

Let’s discuss this one! https://t.co/Heo9zFD9uA

— C. Michael Gibson MD (@CMichaelGibson) March 27, 2020

I don't know if this is real or memorex but it does make ya wonder.  Would we (the people) and our economy be better served if we enforced a mandatory light PPE requirement for everyone?

If you leave your home you must wear a mask and gloves.  The economy would remain open, those that violate could be ticketed and we could keep things going but with added precautions.

We would leave it to each county to get masks and gloves to everyone but look at that graph.

If its real then that's the secret sauce.  Oh and one other thing.  In Asian countries the wearing of masks is so common that it might be seen in the same light as wearing a ball cap in the US.

Japanese Maritime Defense Force reporting a total of 18 Russian navy vessels near their island...

JMSDF reports the P-3C 2nd Air Group confirmed a total of 18 Russian navy vessels heading easy 95 km northwest of Cape Soya yesterday.

That's a pretty big group for the Russians to be sailing around. https://t.co/EtYbd054yf

— Eric Moreno (@KingNeptune767) March 27, 2020

When a rival smells blood..OR FEAR...they will act boldly.  I can't help but wonder if this isn't in part a response to our Pentagon's actions to mitigate the risk to our force because of the pandemic.

Marines being told to isolate themselves in their barracks (Soldiers, Sailors and Airmen too).  All exercises being cancelled.  An aircraft carrier taken out of commission because of an outbreak.

Don't get me wrong.

I believe all that and possibly more might be prudent.

However our enemies are not pausing..and apparently neither are our allies. JMSDF patrol aircraft spotted those ships.  Are we maintaining the same type of deterrence patrols?  I ask because I don't know. 

This was inevitable. The rumors of martial law are flying...

Los Angeles downtown. What on earth is going on?#COVID19 #COVID2019 #COVIDー19 pic.twitter.com/sxUURk9ZdP

— Taro (@taro_taylor) March 26, 2020

I wonder why the Pentagon always does this.  Something is hot in the news and that's when they suddenly see the need to move tons of armor around.

The problem with this move?

The Pentagon canceled all exercises.  So in actuality it really doesn't make sense.

BUT!

I don't think (even if they were to declare martial law) that tanks would be needed.  Gunned up JLTVs and Humvees would do the do without the infrastructure damage.

Still.

Gotta wonder what's going on with all the pics of large amounts of armor being moved around.  Didn't post it but I saw a Tweet showing damn near a brigades worth of Bradley's on a train headed to destination unknown.

Massive protests in China. Could this be about the virus?

There are MASSIVE protests developing right now on the Jiujiang Yangtze River Bridge that joins the Hubei and Jiangxi provinces in Eastern China.

The situation is rapidly evolving.

THREAD 👇 pic.twitter.com/4J2LCdssDd

— Things China Doesn't Want You To Know (@TruthAbtChina) March 27, 2020

Wow.  Didn't put it on the blog but Xi went to Wuhan and WAS NOT warmly received.  Now this?  Could this be about the virus?  If it wasn't then WOW!

On second thought it could be worse than anger over the virus.  Could this be over the economic situation the Chinese citizens suddenly find themselves in? They don't have the robust social safety net that Westerners enjoy so any downturn in the economy would be immediately felt.

And remember even before we felt the impact they were forced to stay home too.  Now they return to work and suddenly no one is buying their stuff...so they get sent home again (I'm speculating on all this).

Anyway this bears watching!!!

Think Defence asked the question...Civil resilience is (mostly) not a defence task and the MoD should be (mostly) nowhere near it

Civil resilience is (mostly) not a defence task and the MoD should be (mostly) nowhere near it pic.twitter.com/4IdDhceq9R

— Think Defence (@thinkdefence) March 27, 2020

I haven't heard this anywhere else but I thought it worthy of discussion on the blog.

Don't get me wrong.  I like TD.  I think he's a good guy (the container thing is a bit..."strange"...but to each his own).

On this one I don't understand his reasoning.

Everywhere this virus has struck we've seen a civil-military response.  For catastrophes of this magnitude I don't believe ANY civilian authority is powerful enough to deal with it.

Even in the UK (TD's nation) we've seen military units activated to deal with the response.  Same in Italy, Spain, China and here in the US (don't have much visibility on other nations but I will admit that from what I've seen of India it appears that its mostly a paramilitary-police activity).

On a personal level I'm in favor of a more back to basics approach.  We did the rebranding and went from Civil Defense to FEMA.

With that transition I believe we lost some of the flavor of the older organization.  Perhaps that's because the threat of nuclear war (which was Civil Defense's focus) faded but with some of the dramas of the past two decades it would appear that community preparedness is more important than ever.

Anyway, what do you think.  Do you agree with TD?

China is developing a mobile SMALL sat launcher...

La startup aérospatiale chinoise One Space a livré un TEL à un institut de recherche militaire pour préparer les vols d'essai à venir.

Le véhicule Tracteur-érecteur-lanceur fait 3,4m de haut, 19m de long et pèse 41t. Il semble être adapté aux lanceurs de série M et X d'One Space pic.twitter.com/ZChpAE5s1U

— East Pendulum (@HenriKenhmann) March 27, 2020

Translated from French by Google..

Chinese aerospace startup One Space has delivered a TEL to a military research institute to prepare for future test flights. 

The Tractor-erector-launcher vehicle is 3.4m high, 19m long and weighs 41t. It seems to be suitable for One Space M and X series launchers

Forgive my ignorance but I'm at a loss for why this would be necessary.  Loss of sats would only happen in a major conflict.  To build mobile launchers would indicate that they're preparing for strikes on their home soil...by us...The United States.

In my worse case scenarios I never envisioned that type of fight with them.  Could they? 

PolarisGov MRZR - Armed UGV.... With a FLIR BlackHornet VRS (Vehicle Reconnaissance System) & Arnold Defense FLETCHER LGR-4 (Laser Guided Rocket x4)

Impressive modification to turn this @PolarisGov MRZR into an Armed UGV. With a @flir BlackHornet VRS (Vehicle Reconnaissance System) + Arnold Defense FLETCHER LGR-4 (Laser Guided Rocket x4) pic.twitter.com/iXnVOLBdX6

— Abraxas Spa (@AbraxasSpa) March 27, 2020

Coronavirus testing. Number of tests versus per capita number of tests...

The US is still far behind on testing per person. Let’s hope the gap narrows dramatically over the next month. Production must continue unabated through the summer to prepare for the next wave(s). We can be prepared the second time if we become vigilant. https://t.co/6ZeKbCuuZC

— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) March 27, 2020

Now I'm starting to see how facts and figures are being used to confuse the public.  Well let me be clear.  I see how they're being used to confuse me!

We're on a weird trajectory.

We have indeed conducted more tests of people THAN ANYONE IN THE WORLD.  The problem.  Some in the media are using the "per capita number of tests" to show governmental incompetence.

The number of deaths versus the number of tests indicate we're weathering this storm quite well.

The talk of this being just the beginning of the bell curve is curious too.  via CDC.gov (Feb 2020)

As of February 23, 14 COVID-19 cases had been diagnosed in the following six states: Arizona (one case), California (eight), Illinois (two), Massachusetts (one), Washington (one), and Wisconsin (one). Twelve of these 14 cases were related to travel to China, and two cases occurred through person-to-person transmission to close household contacts of a person with confirmed COVID-19. An additional 39 cases were reported among repatriated U.S. citizens, residents, and their families returning from Hubei province, China (three), and from the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was docked in Yokohama, Japan (36). Thus, there have been 53 cases within the United States. No deaths have been reported in the United States.

From the same report.

 COVID-19 is a serious public health threat. Cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed in the United States, primarily in travelers from China and quarantined repatriates, and also in two close contacts of COVID-19 patients. Currently, COVID-19 is not recognized to be spreading in U.S. communities. If sustained transmission in U.S. communities is identified, the U.S. response strategy will enhance implementation of actions to slow spread in communities (2,6). Implementation of basic precautions of infection control and prevention, including staying home when ill and practicing respiratory and hand hygiene will become increasingly important.

Community-level nonpharmaceutical intervention might include school dismissals and social distancing in other settings (e.g., postponement or cancellation of mass gatherings and telework and remote-meeting options in workplaces). These measures can be disruptive and might have societal and economic impact on individual persons and communities (6). However, studies have shown that early layered implementation of these interventions can reduce the community spread and impact of infectious pathogens such as pandemic influenza, even when specific pharmaceutical treatments and vaccines are not available (7,8). These measures might be critical to avert widespread COVID-19 transmission in U.S. communities (2,6). Mitigation measures implemented in China have included the closing of major transport hubs and preventing exit from certain cities with widespread transmission, cancellation of Chinese New Year celebrations, and prohibition of attendance at school and work (5). However, the impact of these measures in China has not yet been evaluated.

Read the report here. 

My conclusion?

At this point we are on this and we are winning.  No one wants to say it but the introduction of this virus can be traced to foreign nationals, their relatives or people that traveled to Wuhan.

If the 23 of Feb was the beginning of the crisis then we're NOT on a trajectory for this to spiral anymore out of control than it already is.  We've already been thru the storm.  We have indeed bent the bell curve down!

As far as testing?

I believe we're on track with that too.  For whatever reason we're seeing an attempt (in my opinion) to frighten the public and (in my opinion) to wreck the economy.

Terrible forces are at work with regard to this virus.  I can't put my finger on it but if I didn't know better I would think that once again the American people are being put under a huge information campaign designed to sway our opinion to a point of view that I can't make out (again just my opinion...the reporting on this crisis DOES NOT match the facts...at least at this point they don't).

USNS Mercy arrives in Los Angeles...

Today #USNSMercy arrived @PortofLA to serve as a referral hospital for patients not infected with #COVID19 - handling overflow of acute trauma cases & other urgent needs allowing shore-based hospitals to focus medical care resources on the treatment of #coronavirus patients. pic.twitter.com/14WkftEEZp

— Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas B. Modly (@SECNAV) March 27, 2020

We are acting before the crisis has arrived.  This situation is being resolved.  Quite honestly if we were to compare the US to the EU (not the individual countries that make up the EU) then we would be comparable.  China is irrelevant because they LIE.

I expect this to be resolved shortly.

I'm already beginning to pivot toward dealing with the real trauma that will shock the system.

When this monster returns this fall.  We're due for a savage winter (they've been mild for far too long) and that will exacerbate the situation.

PREP NOW!

Sidenote.  I jumbled the title and initially said NY City.  My bad.  But that does raise an interesting issue doesn't it.  NY is grabbing all the headlines but San Fran is badly affected and so is Seattle.  Why are we only hearing about New York on the main stream media news feeds?