SNAFU!

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Berger all but admits that the Missile Marine Corps is about one enemy, in one region of the world...

“We, all of us, love the things we are getting rid of," Berger said during his Wednesday morning the keynote speech at the virtual Modern Day Marine expo held from Quantico, Virginia. “We have to make hard decisions about what we must retain."

The Marine Corps is cutting or reducing these programs to free up money in the budget to reinvest in what is needed in the future fight against China, Berger said.

He's right but it won't be in the Pacific. It'll be in Africa. More from the same article.

The plan would require Marines to “live” and operate well within range of China’s missile defense system, playing a sea denial and skirmish role against the Chinese military as the rest of the U.S. joint force moves in to win the war.

In order to survive against the Chinese missile threat the Corps will have to change its logistics network and work to reduce its signature in order to hide from the enemy, Berger said Wednesday.

Why does he not think (or wargame) China enhancing its sensor network to be able to locate these units? Once located they're meat on the table. I just don't get his thinking. Additionally can anyone explain how we went from an A2/AD penetrating their bubble to operating inside it type thinking? Whiplash anyone? Semper Gumby is one thing but the twists and turns from the Pentagon on the "latest and greatest" strategy (really buzzwords) is beyond tiring. A bit more.

The new technology will likely come out at a large cost, but the Marine Corps does not plan on asking Congress for money to pay for it, Berger said.

Instead the money saved from cutting 2,000 Marines in 2021, no longer supporting tank battalions and reducing the size of F-35B and F-35C squadrons from 16 to 10 planes will be used to buy the equipment necessary to fight the war, Berger envisions.

“We’re not asking for a nickel more the Marine Corps is not asking for any end strength increase any money increase," Berger said.

I've been using the old 150K number as the projected future end strength of the Missile Marines because Amos slipped and let that cat out the bag awhile ago. I'm revising my thinking. If this holds and Berger doesn't ask for an additional cent AND the budget doesn't increase then I'm guessing it'll actually be around 100K. If Berger puts into practice the whiff that I'm getting that he's focused only on China then it might be a bit smaller than even that.

The US Marines, Missile Marines, any Marines can't survive this kind of strategy.

If this plan is allowed to go forward then the Marines (in whatever form) are done.

Berger needs an intervention.

Wow. Got new info so I changed my mind. These police shootings ARE justified.

I might have to take this down because although the info I'm passing isn't classified, it does go against some common memes and thoughts. Thoughts that I even once held. '

Let's start with the one that kicked off all this madness. The Floyd Incident. A few things that you need to know. In that dept a knee restraint is allowed. So no matter how bad it looks its allowed in that dept use of force. The LEOs called for an ambulance twice. The second time was to tell them to step it up (get there quicker!). Floyd DID have a mix of drugs in his system. Finally he DID resist getting placed into the squad car.

That is straight from a brief I had.

The next concerns the Taylor Shooting. It too was legit. Taylor's boyfriend was a wanted drug dealer, they had a no knock warrant for his arrest. The kicker? They did announce as police before entry and they had a right to defend themselves when HE started shooting at them.

I'm not saying this. This is from a brief we had on the incident.

We're all getting played. Police are being overly cautious by waiting till all facts comeout so that they can properly give the whole story while a narrative is being allowed to, form in the general public and its obvious that someone in the media feels like the narrative being pushed is of benefit even when they know the facts.

Communicate people.

That is the key to getting shit done the right way.

Our communities need to start talking to and not at each other. That's the only way to get this back on track.

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Marine Corps’ Builds New Littoral Regiment

via Breaking Defense.

The Marine Corps is moving quickly to develop a new kind of infantry unit to challenge Chinese claims on small islands in the Pacific, while the Navy is developing new and smaller ships to move and supply them once they deploy.

The new Littoral Regiments won’t be fully fleshed out for several years, but Marine Corps leaders said today they will be bolstered by logistics and air defense battalions once they’re ready to go.

The Corps is wargaming “what assets would we be able to place in that battle space that are very low signature and that give us the firepower that we need to be a relevant force that provides consequences, should we get past the deterrence phase,” Maj. Gen. Kevin Iiams, assistant deputy commandant of Combat Development, told reporters at the virtual Modern Day Marine event today.

The Corps envisions three new regiments, with two based in Japan and one in Guam.

Plans call for the regiment to undergo wargames and experimentation for about three years until a unit is fleshed out and ready to actually deploy.

“Much like our [Marine air-ground task forces] that we have now, there are support elements to it,” Iiams said. “So, we’ll have a littoral combat team; we’ll have a littoral logistics battalion; and we’ll have an anti-air battalion,” Iiams added.

The units are part of the Corps’ effort to move toward building a fast-moving, hard to detect “inside force” that can operate within range of Chinese and Russian weapons ranges while packing a potent offensive punch.

Story here.

A few things.

* We already knew this. I view this "announcement" as an effort to regain the momentum in Berger's "transformation". He's bogging down and he's running out of time.

* Remember when it was all about penetrating China's A2/AD zone? Now its all about operating inside of it. Amazing isn't it?

* Ships. A new toy is the make or break part of this concept? Stupid thing to place such a huge bet on. Think about it. The US Navy has finally rid itself of the amphibious assault requirement (you're welcome Navy...our Commandant is being batshit crazy) but in exchange the Missile Marines are asking for new ships? While the Navy already is lacking battle force ships that can contribute to the fight (yeah the Marines are talking about shooting from shore...Navy leadership is well aware that the cost benefit analysis of this plan is poor at best)? This is a hard ask for the Navy, a punch in the gut and probably viewed as pure folly.

* They're now talking anti-air? Seriously? This is another crazy part of this plan! Short range anti-air missiles against a storm of Chinese cruise missiles that will obliterate on shore anti-ship missile complexes? Its not gonna work.

* The cost of this plan must be staggering if its taken to completion. Think about it. The Marine Corps is standing up a littoral regiment. Building a division that is focused on China...but in order to do it, it's had to slash tanks, F-35's, CH-53K's and other forces? Is this new plan even affordable?

So much more to talk about but I'm out of time.

Russian Fighter shoots down ANOTHER Russian Fighter during training?

The reports emerged after a Russian Air Force Su-30 fighter aircraft crashed in the Tver region during a routine training flight on September 22https://t.co/F8Msg5Whuz
— Defense Brief (@BriefDefense) September 23, 2020

Hmm. Don't know how much stock I put in reports like this. I'll wait and see before jumping thru hoops. Don't know if you're aware but we had reports of this earlier this year and late last year and they could never be confirmed but were vigorously denied. Time will tell?

Open Comment Post. 23 Sept 2020

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

271 Griffon & 42 Jaguar set to enter service between 2022/2023.

Après une 1ère commande en 2017 de 339 véhicules blindés #Griffon et #Jaguar du programme #SCORPION, la DGA notifie une 2e tranche de production de 313 véhicules aux sociétés Nexter Systems, Arquus et Thales.

➡️ Ces 271 Griffon et 42 Jaguar seront livrés entre 2022 et 2023. pic.twitter.com/jBtZcbAgME
— Direction générale de l'armement (@DGA) September 22, 2020

Open Comment Post. 22 Sept 2020

1969 Chevrolet C40 Custom Truck

Here.

Macron is laying down redlines to Russia? Is he smoking crack?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">French President Emmanuel Macron demanded an immediate explanation from Russia over the poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, warning that Paris would not allow its red lines on the use of chemical weapons to be crossed <a href="https://t.co/Fc5paKhD8I">pic.twitter.com/Fc5paKhD8I</a></p>— Reuters (@Reuters) <a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1308537810966765569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Dragon IFV 8x8 Pic...

Boeing envisions B-1Bs & B-52s becoming hypersonic missile carriers

For @AviationWeek Intelligence Network subscribers, @TheDEWLine reveals how Boeing envisions B-1Bs & B-52s becoming hypersonic missile carriers https://t.co/FBf4KJviFA #AnteUp pic.twitter.com/MhsX61OnTG
— James Drew (@StrikeWriter) September 22, 2020

Iran’s T-72M1 upgrade.

#Iran’s T-72M1 upgrade. (#Iranian Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics / @JanesINTEL ) pic.twitter.com/hkCsxwmC2Y
— Sukhoi Su-57 Felon 🇷🇺🇮🇳 (@I30mki) September 22, 2020

"The Griffon's first screening in Mali is scheduled for 2022"

Monday, September 21, 2020

Berger wants to move fast but the cornerstone of his concept, the Light Amphibious Warship is bogging him down and will lead to his concept's failure!

First I gotta get this off my chest before we dig into this thing. Where are the screws on this ship? I can't see how it moves thru the water if they're not at the stern (cause I can't see them at the bow) and if they're back there then how will it not beach itself. Additionally you do realize what this is don't you?

Type:	Tank landing ship
Displacement:	4,793 long tons (4,870 t) light 8,342 long tons (8,476 t) full load
Length:	522 ft 4 in (159.2 m) oa 562 ft (171.3 m) over derrick arms
Beam:	69 ft 6 in (21.2 m)
Draft:	17 ft 6 in (5.3 m) max
Propulsion:	2 shafts 6 ALCO or GM diesel engines (3 per shaft) 16,500 shp (12,300 kW) Bow thruster
Speed:	22 knots (41 km/h; 25 mph) max
Range:	2,500 nmi (4,600 km; 2,900 mi) at 14 knots (26 km/h; 16 mph)
Troops:	431 max
Complement:	213
Sensors and processing systems:	2 × Mk 63 GCFS SPS-10 radar
Armament:	2 × twin 3"/50 caliber guns

It's just a MODERNIZED Newport Tank Landing Ship! Even the specs are similar...

But onto the story. via Defense News.

The U.S. Marine Corps is moving as fast as it can to field a new class of light amphibious warship, but it remains unclear what it will do, where it will be based or what capabilities it will bring to the fight.

The idea behind the ship is to take a commercial design or adapt a historic design to make a vessel capable of accommodating up to 40 sailors and at least 75 Marines to transport Marine kit over a range of about 3,500 nautical miles, according to a recent industry day presentation.

While the presentation noted that the ship should have few tailored Navy requirements, that also creates a problem: If the Navy is going to pay tens of millions to develop, build, crew and operate them, should it not provide some additional value to the fleet?

A bit more.

When asked whether the ship should contribute to a more distributed sensor architecture to align with the Navy’s desire to be more spread out over a large area during a fight, King answered in the affirmative.

"[But] I really see it benefiting from [that architecture] more,” he said. “We need to build an affordable ship that can get after the ability to do maritime campaigning in the littorals.”

The unstated implication appeared to be that if the ship is loaded up with sensors and requirements, it will slow down the process and increase the cost. Analysts who spoke to Defense News agreed with that, saying the Navy is likely trying to put more systems on the platform that will make it more complex and more expensive.

A little bit more and the real meat of the story.

"The commandant can’t divest of some of the legacy platforms he’s building — these big, expensive and vulnerable platforms — until he has something that replaces it in the water. And so he’s anxious to get going with something else so he then has a reason to move away from what he has.

“The commandant is well aware he has a four-year clock and its ticking. So if he’s going to make changes, he’s got to get moving to get those changes in place and commit the Marine Corps to them to make sure it’s going to last. And right now I’m not sure there’s a lot of high confidence that they are going to last.”

Hendrix acknowledged that the Navy has good reason to want the light amphibious warship to have more capability, but added that the Corps is more interested in something simple than something costly and elaborate.

“What that does,” Hendrix said, “is drive up unit cost and drive down the numbers that can be purchased.”

Story here.

The stark reality facing the Commandant of the Marine Corps? He attempted to be a change agent but stumbled into the common failure of all change agents.

He went bold. He went big. But he failed to get those he led onboard with his change.

Let's wade into those muddy waters. Is the US headed toward widespread violence this presidential election?

A reader asked the question (Snafuperman) so I decided to take him up on the challenge.

We're gonna wade into these muddy waters.

The question.

Is the US headed toward widespread violence this presidential election?

My answer.

I just don't know!

We had an incident here where an officer was ambushed. That's kinda unheard of in rural areas. I didn't see it coming. Luckily he's ok and was only hit in the leg...but still.

Remember that this is in an area that widely supports Law Enforcement (there are mutterings from the usual suspects but I dismiss them...or rather had). So what happens in more urban/city areas?

Unfortunately I think we might be tipping toward even more bad times.