Chinese defense expert says the short distance between China & Taiwan means they'll complete all combat tasks before we can react...

via Newsweek

"The current drills a short distance away could be considered a routine exercise, but I think they're specially targeted [at Taiwan]," Du added. "Taiwan is the target."

"How much time would the U.S. really have?" Du said, in the event China decided to launch a wave of attacks to invade the island.

He added: "Before U.S. forces arrive, we will have completed all our combat tasks. They will have no chance to intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict."

Here.

I've stated the same.  Anyone that disagrees is just being foolish and hasn't looked at a map.  The only way we can viably defend Taiwan is if we have forces on the island to act as a tripwire...along with the stated intent to go nuclear should landings be attempted.

Barring that, the defense of Taiwan is a fantasy. 

 

Open Comment Post. 26 July 2021

My 10.5 AR now has a little brother...a 7.5!

Made a little course correction. I'm gonna go on and make my 10.5 into an SBR, and use this 7.5 as my truck gun. More maneuverable, able to spit fire (and spit fire it does...damn near literally...definitely need to try and find a fix to keep the flash out my eyes!) and still throwing 5.56's at close to shortish medium range. I like this little beast. Now an optic that I can beat/bash but still buy on a budget!

Rosomak IFV with ZSSW-30 turret.

 

#PolishArmy' 🇵🇱 #Rosomak #IFV with #ZSSW-30 turret.
The #Spike LR2 #ATGM launchers installed on the turret.
(c) militarysta pic.twitter.com/IWnfJr4cKI

— The Dead District (@TheDeadDistrict) July 23, 2021

U.S. Air Force MC-130J Commando II @ Talisman Sabre 21

U.S. Air Force MC-130J Commando II aircrafts with Special Operations Aircraft Maintenance Squadron, prepare to load U.S. Marine Corps High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems with 3d Battalion, 12th Marines, 3d Marine Division, during Exercise Talisman Sabre 21 at Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia, July 21, 2021. TS21, the ninth iteration and conducted since 2005, occurs biennially across Northern Australia. Australian, U.S. and other multinational partner forces use Talisman Sabre to enhance interoperability by training in complex, multi-domain operations scenarios that address the full range of Indo-Pacific security concerts. 

HIMARS live fire during Exercise Talisman Sabre 21

Open Comment Post. 23 July 2021

 

Forget "distributed warfare". That's a smoke screen...instead think DARPA's Mosaic Concept as the new hotness...

 I've been irritated beyond belief after reading that Congressman's article.

A US Congressman is claiming that the US is all but done militarily against the Chinese unless we get our act together by 2025?

We see a MASSIVE lurch in concepts by the US Marine Corps with the (we now know to be fake fig leaf) that it's designed to ensure the relevancy of the Marine Corps going into the future?

We see an all hands on deck push by even the Army to participate in the sea battle?

The idea that a dispersed and distributed force could actually defeat a naval force that is peer level using such simplicity just didn't make sense.

There had to be more.

Quite honestly I've been irked and pissed because none of it made sense.

Warnings were issued since the Obama administration.  Surely if I knew this then so did the folks at Quantico.

So how does a dispersed force "compete" (God I SO HATE THAT TERM used as a military concept) against a peer adversary?  There has to be more to it than just that.

A little digging led me to DARPA's Mosaic concept.  

More to come (much to read) but it appears that AI, electronic warfare, what some would call attacks on critical infrastructure and exquisite command and control to take advantage of it.

What has the Marine Corps been working on?  Command and control.  They've been talking much about EW/Cyber.  Attacks on naval shipping by missile and lastly a whole lot about dispersed forces.

Make no mistake, my complaints are still valid.  Small forces are extremely vulnerable.  We're in essence putting our conventional forces in the same position as Special Ops.  They will be extremely vulnerable to combined arms attack.

Dispersed forces theoretically will cause targeting problems.  As a reader said what would you rather lose...a Burke or a Light Amphibious Warship?  An LPD or LAW.  A carrier or a LAW.

The same applies to our Marines ashore.  Would you rather lose a Company Landing Team or a Burke?  An MLRS battery or a LAW?

In the Pacific if every thing works right we will see Marine (and now Army units) destroyed.  They will be small units.  They will be ravaged horribly, but according to the butcher's bill (and I guess the stakes if conflict were actually to occur with China) it'll be worth it.

This leads me to the last point of this rambling post (forgive me...I'm still raging).

That term I hate.  COMPETE.  The other one too.  Gray zone competition.

The Marine Corps and a bigger part of the Army than anyone wants to admit will all be praying that we stay at that stage.

Peer warfare with China will be bloody.  The "competition" or gray zone phase is being emphasized because if thing turn hot alot of American mothers will be weeping, Mosaic warfare or not.

The ships of the USS America (LHA 6) Expeditionary Strike Group steam in formation during Talisman Sabre (TS) 21

 

(From left) USNS Rappahannock (T-AO 204), ROKS Wand Geon (DD 978), HMAS Parramatta (FFH 154), USS America (LHA 6), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), USS JS Makinami (DD 112), USNS Alan Shepard (T-AKE 3), (center) HMCS Calgary (FFH 335), (back) USS New Orleans (LPD 18), HMAS Brisbane (D 41), and USS Germantown (LSD 42) steam in formation during Talisman Sabre (TS) 21. This is the ninth iteration of Talisman Sabre, a large-scale, bilateral military exercise between Australian and the U.S. involving more than 17,000 participants from seven nations. The month-long multi-domain exercise consists of a series of training events that reinforce the strong U.S./Australian alliance and demonstrate the U.S. Military’s unwavering commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. 

This must read article by Congressman Gallagher (Former Marine) all but admits that we won't be ready in time against China...

 via USNI

Since coming to Congress, I have spent a good deal of time speaking and writing on naval topics. I’ve had the privilege of speaking to the Surface Navy Association, CSIS, and the Naval Institute, and writing for War On the Rocks, for example. In these conversations, I have come to realize that we can no longer afford just to preach to the sea power “choir.” As Admiral Phil Davidson, the former Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently warned, we may have six years or less before the People’s Republic of China (PRC) takes action against Taiwan. Some have taken to calling this the “Davidson window.” Other senior leaders, including Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Michael Gilday and Commandant of the Marine Corps General David Berger, agree with his assessment. Think about that for a minute. The United States may only have a few years to prepare for a war that could decide the course of the remainder of this century.

Geography dictates such a war would be waged first and foremost by the Sea Services. The United States cannot simply pay lip service to the idea of naval supremacy anymore; we have to earn it, every day. To avert disaster—and make no mistake, that is where our present course leads—the White House, Congress, and the Pentagon must act with a sense of urgency and advocate for, build, and resource American sea power before it is too late.

The 2018 National Defense Strategy is predicated on deterrence by denial. So, what, exactly, do we seek to deny? The most stressing and dangerous scenario is a PRC “fait accompli” attack against Taiwan, which the United States would seek to deny through the use of integrated sea power. If we are honest with ourselves, this is not a task we are up to today. We have six years. This is an “Apollo 13” moment—lock all the smart people in a room and do not let them leave until they figure it out.

The Davidson window will close rapidly. We must build a battle force that is ready for war—not in 2045, but by 2025. Preparing for such a war will require hard choices today. We must grow our naval presence in Japan, Guam, and Australia—even if that comes at the expense of naval presence elsewhere. We must ensure our amphibious forces can contribute long-range fires to the fight. The Marine Corps needs long-range weapons and forces distributed across every U.S. territory and possession in the Indo-Pacific. Naval logistics must be able to deliver weapons, spare parts, food, fuel, and people in contested environments. There is not a moment to lose in this race.

Here 

Wow.

Drink that in.  Taste it on your tongue and don't ignore how sour it is!

I OWE BERGER AN APOLOGY!!!!

I've finally globbed onto the idea that the USMC is bastardizing itself and ruining itself because the Navy is so jacked up.

I didn't think it was this bad.

Even with things being as dire as they are, the Navy is still paralyzed.  Navy leadership is still lost in the woods.

Amazing.

What's worse?

This Congressman basically has stated (without meaning to I think) that we've already lost.

You've seen the Navy's ship building plan.  You've seen the state of Navy ships.  You've read the reports of how inadequate Surface Warfare Officer training/performance is!

We'll be fighting China with half our fleet (because alot of it will be in maintenance or taking care of all our OTHER commitments) and the stuff that is available will be dependent on Naval Air, Marine & Army Ground/Missiles and Air Force assets to keep it AFLOAT much less win the battle.

I'm gonna re-read this thing a couple of times.  This guy knows the terrible truth and I believe he's trying to warn us just like that Navy Capt that got sacked for telling the truth (I believe he was the Intel Chief for the Pacific).

The craziest thing?

The American public is not prepared mentally for a peer conflict. American business is not prepared for this conflict.  Congress isn't prepared either.

So our society isn't ready for the war.  We're already facing societal chaos because of the pandemic.  Our economy is based on cheap Chinese goods and somehow we're suppose to get ready for war against them?

Sorry folks.

I stand ready for the pain.  Call me unpatriotic.  Call me a fool.  Call me whatever but I just don't see how we can fight and win with the force we have (which will remarkably be unchanged by 2025).

Tell me I'm wrong.