Anyone thinking that the Typhoon has a chance of winning future orders should be drug tested immediately.
While we've all been focused (on this side of the Atlantic) on issues ranging from the F-35, to the current wars, to the coming issues with China...Germany has begun a series of austerity measures that should shock defense analysts.
Check this out from SLD, but here's a juicy bit...
The main story broke that Germany wished to make significant cuts in a raft of aerospace programs. The proposed cuts were in Eurofighter (from 177 to 140), A400M (from 53 to 40), Tiger attack helicopter (from 80 to 40), and NH-90 (from 122 to 80). Looking at all of these, the scale of the cuts ranges from a “mere” 20%, right up to 50% in the case of Tiger.Wow.
An observation: is anyone really surprised about the Typhoon cuts? Isn’t this cut simply Germany doing what the UK (and Italy) had done, that is ordering Tranche 3A, but consigning Tranche 3B to the dustbin? As such, Defence Analysis cannot say that we are particularly “surprised” by this. And on the same line, talk to practically anyone in France (let alone Italy or Spain), and they will state that Germany’s A400M offtake was originally a joke at close to 70, was a joke even when brought down to 60, and even at 40 looks excessive for a military that hardly leaves its own borders.
The story's main line is that friction between Germany and France will be exacerbated with these types of cuts.
I'm taking another tact.
With cuts like this, the upgrade paths for all these aircraft will take a hit.
They will be extremely expensive.
They won't keep up with US advancements.
They will be seen as technologically stale by nations seeking to purchase new airplanes.
Sweetman worried that the design of the F-35 program was an attempt to take control of the Western fighter market...essentially freezing out Europe.
He was wrong. The Europeans are doing it to themselves.
I'd say the Tiger and Typhoon are fairly safe. Typhoon will probably get India and Saudi Arabia and UAE are a definite chance at more Tiffies, but additional sales seem unlikely.
ReplyDeleteThe Tiger seems similar to me. It might pick up one or two more export wins but I don't see it having a great deal of success. Support and future capability enhancements will be expensive due to the small user base and will likely see each user adopting it's own requirements. France and Australia have opted for Hellfire. Germany for Trigat and Spain with Spike.
I see Australia opting for a laser guided rocket system in coming years and there has been talk of adding a MMW radar ala Longbow Apache onto it which would probably mean uprated engines too.
I see incrementally upgraded EW, EO/IR sensors and comms (including data-links) but not much more than this...