Let's get real on Russia recovering cruise missile fragments/components.

Ok boys.

Let's get real on debris/recovered missile parts after the strike on Syria.

First a little story.  I took a course a long time ago from the FBI covering Post Bomb Blast Investigation.  No big deal, the war on terror was high and I guess they wanted bodies in case bad shit ever happened again in the US.  My thinking?  If things went south they would have us put on blue jeans, give us those Incident Response Force Jackets and we would scour the ground so the real agents could start running down the suspects.

But I digress.

What I learned from that course is that when bombs explode you don't get vaporization.  You get micro fragmentation.  In other words even with the hotness of the time, fertilizer bombs you will have evidence left behind.

Components that can be painstakingly reassembled by some geek in a lab coat in a flight hanger somewhere.

That adds up tenfold when you're talking about modern munitions.

Think about what we're talking about with a cruise missile.  We're talking about a devise that has a warhead on its nose but is designed to flying a couple hundred miles, maneuver, sometimes at high speed other times at high subsonic and hit a target precisely.

Additionally it has to be rugged enough to survive launch from ships or aircraft AND carriage/storage till its needed.

Long story short.

Munitions are tough.  Cruise missiles are tougher.  There will be fragments left behind.  There will be components that help the attacker identify it.

So while I am a supporter of trying to befriend Russia, on this they're full of shit.  A few components and fragments don't mean a thing except cruise missiles struck a target and they got some grunts to pick up the pieces.

Open Comment Post. April 26, 2018.

Eurofighter "Mudhen" Version versus the F-35...They say it's 90% Better....

I use the above images for a reason.  The decision in Germany is what to replace the Tornado Strike Fighter with...the F-35 or the Typhoon.  The weapons carriage you see is going to be critical in this decision I believe...especially the version carry Brimstone and a couple of Paveways along with a pod.  Why?  Because the plane can perform precision strikes retains its fantastic maneuverability and blistering speed, especially in comparison to the F-35.

But enough of my words.  Check this out via Defense News.

“Stealth is only 10 percent of the capability mix,” Eurofighter marketing chief Raffael Klaschke told Defense News on Wednesday. “We’re still better at the other 90 percent,” he argued, referring to the aircraft’s combat capabilities.

While the company could rest easy with the German Defence Ministry’s recent proclamation that the Eurofighter is the preferred path for the upcoming multibillion-dollar Tornado-replacement program, Lockheed Martin’s massive showing at the air show may have some officials nervous.

Eurofighter CEO Volker Paltzo doubled down on the argument that the Typhoon would guarantee continued vibrancy in the European military aircraft market. “I want to underscore that every euro spent on Eurofighter within Europe stays in Europe,” he told reporters.

Executives also stressed that the European aircraft would come free of any “black boxes,” a reference to the expectation that all technological and operational details would be owned by Europeans, which may not be the case with the F-35

Story here. 

Interesting isn't it?

We already knew about the pushback against stealth...we've seen that even in the US Navy.

What I discounted (and shouldn't have) was the brewing issue of ALIS.  I have yet to see any real benefit to operating forces with regard to that system.  It seems error prone form my seat and needlessly grounds aircraft and has the potential to not only "spy" on allies but also render them helpless when aircraft are needed the most.

What challenges does the Typhoon face?

The Europeans didn't modernize it on a realistic timeline.  They didn't make the move to AESA radar and other advanced electronics as quickly as they should have.

From what I can tell they haven't worked as quickly as they should on next gen engines to keep the plane relevant.

That was then, this is now.

If Germany chooses to change course they could lead the rest of the Eurofighter consortium into a new age while the Europeans work on a 6th gen (skipping 5th gen) fighter.

I don't for one minute believe the F-35 will be in service till 2070.  That would mean that fighter tech has stagnated...that would mean that human technology would stagnate for the next 50 years.  The very idea is insane.

So in reality we're looking at the Europeans being able to take a beat, build an Uber Eurofighter and start work on their 6th gen.

It's doable if they're willing to rise to the challenge.  Even more it makes sense if they can build a proper roadmap.

Four Meteors, Two Bombs, Six Brimstones and Two ASRAAMs....

This is a pretty flexible bomb loadout for a dual role mission.  I know other aircraft can carry the same but its still nice to see.

Deputy killed, his cruiser stolen and an armed robbery committed...Sovereign Citizens have to be targeted...

via Washington Post.

 A Maine man killed a sheriff’s deputy, stole his cruiser and robbed a convenience store early Wednesday, triggering an intensive manhunt in a heavily wooded rural town in Maine, officials said.

Somerset County Cpl. Sheriff Eugene Cole was killed at about 1:45 a.m. on U.S. Route 2 in Norridgewock about 60 miles (96 kilometers) west of Bangor, state police said. His cruiser was driven to a Cumberland Farms store, which was robbed.

Aircraft and armored vehicles were seen around Norridgewock and schools were locked down as federal, state and local law enforcement officials searched for 29-year-old John Williams, of Madison, Maine, who remained on the loose after abandoning the stolen cruiser, state police said Wednesday.

“Many times we’re able to say that there is not an ongoing threat, but that’s not the case today,” said State Police Lt. Col. John Cote at a news conference. “There certainly is an ongoing public threat. He’s considered armed and dangerous.”

Story here. 

I'm about to piss a great many of you but fuck it.  We've gone round and round about Black Lives Matter.  I said they're a protest group.  You guys said they were much more.  I said ANTIFA was simply anti-fascists and you guys supported the people on the other side (yeah....some of you supported Nazis).

Ok.  So be it.

But ya know what you've missed?  These Sovereign Citizens.  Out of all the groups that worry me, from infiltration of terrorists groups into America, to Nazis/KKK, the only ones that cause me pause because I'm absolutely convinced they're batshit crazy are the Sovereign Citizens.

Unbeknownst to most they've been on a rampage over the past couple of years and I'd bet that 90% of the police shootings are either members or sympathizers to their positions.

You want to know what group needs to be focused on because they're a real threat? 

Sovereign Citizens.

The FBI should get out of doing the public relations non-sense of targeting protest groups and get after the guys gunning for cops.

Side note.  This dude might be some whacked out Meth Head (and not a Sovereign Citizen) but it doesn't change any of the above.  

CH-53K arrives in Berlin...

Wow.

That is one big bird!  Looks good too.

Yeah I've read the reports that the schedule is slipping.  Yeah I know they still have yet to deliver on the plan to reduce the cost of the thing...

But I do know (now I do) what's happening to the current fleet of CH-53E's and it's essential that they get this thing moving and moving now.

Do I care if LM sells some to the Germans or Israelis?  No not really.  Another couple dozen won't make a difference. 

They've SOMEHOW raised the number of airframes requested from 200 (that the GAO questioned) to now 225.

I can live with even that. 

All I want is a sense of urgency from Lockheed Martin/Sikorsky to fix whatever problems is causing the delay, a vigorous push from the Deputy Commandant for Aviation and the issues that we're seeing with the Wing cleaned up ricky tick quick.

Pentagon reveals multi-year block buys for F-35's. It won't work....

via Flight Global.

As the F-35 moves towards full-rate production in three years, the US Air Force and Navy plan to transition from purchasing the aircraft in one-year blocks to multiyear procurement contracts, according to a Selected Acquisition Report released in in late March.

The USAF plans to start the first round of multiyear procurement deals with a three-year contract in 2021, followed by successive five-year procurements beginning in fiscal 2024 until the end of the programme.

The USN plans to continue one-year procurements through fiscal year 2023, followed by successive five-year procurements from fiscal year 2024 until the end of the programme.

Multiyear procurement contracts are a special mechanism that Congress permits the DOD to use for a limited number of programmes at full-rate production to reduce costs by several percent. In total, the DOD plans to purchase 2,456 F-35s: 1,763 F-35As for the USAF; 353 F-35Bs and 67 F-35Cs for the Marine Corps; and 273 F-35Cs for the USN.

Story here.

This is an ambitious plan.

Too bad it won't work.

The problem is more than the F-35.  Let's just assume that they FINALLY get all the bugs worked out and the plane starts to deliver.

They're facing two terrible problems. 

The first is the upgrade path.  By 2021 when they first start this multi-year buy they're going to be starting the first of many upgrades to get the plane to equal current top tier 4th gen airplanes...especially looking at its EOTS that is a gen behind current SNIPER pods...so money will have to be diverted to testing and implementing the system on jets they're buying.  That will add cost at an inopportune time.

The second is the budget.  Republican defense hawks have been sounding the alarm that this is the last big budget the Pentagon will receive.  Quite honestly considering our current fiscal state, we shouldn't have given the Pentagon this much money now.  In the future?  It just won't happen.

There are other issues that will take a whack at the F-35 program for the services too.

For the USAF they're looking at a MASSIVE budget trainwreck.  They're trying to put into service the F-35, the KC-46, and a replacement for several other jets that perform important roles...those low density high demand airframes the ground guys depend on...besides that you have competing interests inside the service from the B-21 for nuclear deterrence to buying a new Air Force One to even building hypersonic weapons and rebuilding weapon stocks.

The US Army will be howling from the sidelines.  They're gonna want their Next Generation Combat Vehicle, continue AMPV production, rebuild Strykers to the 30mm variant, design a Bradley II, and of course buy a shit load of JLTVs as well as working on the next gen Chinook, replacement for the BlackHawk and make a decision on which way they go for an Apache Attack replacement.

The US Marines will also be screaming.  No more banging on the Wing.  They need new rides so the CH-53K is essential AS IS getting the MV-22 to one configuration!  We need the ACV, the AAV Survivability Upgrade (along with enhanced lethality options for both) as well as JLTVs, more cannons and MLRS.

The US Navy?  They might be in the worse shape of all with regard to this plan.  They'll be getting Advanced Super Hornets for comparative pennies while being pressured to buy more F-35C's.  Meanwhile they need to sort out their new Cruiser sized Destroyers, figure out where they go with Burkes, put into service new subs, build a new set of Command Ships, figure out what they're gonna settle on with the AFSB/MLP type ships and other important things.

Oh and did I mention they're gonna be trying to do all this while undergoing the biggest social change in the military since the 1950's?

This is ambitious but they're making plans for people down the road to carry out.  The General's club is tight but if they have to bail because the politicians won't fund it then they can't start a coup and make it work.

I said that to mean this.

They better have a plan B, cause even I can see this is simply wishful thinking....

Plasan's Yagu Ultralight Special Ops Combat Vehicle...UPDATED & Reassessed!

Defense Update has a really good writeup and vid of this vehicle (found here).

OK guys.  Here we go with a new assessment on this vehicle.  I've had a chance to read more and what I missed at Defense Update is the (what I believe to be) intended role of the vehicle.

My new take.

This solves the problem of the internally carried vehicle.

What are those problems.  Lack of armor/crew protection.  Exposed crew to weapons fire (individual and light crew served weapons) and absolutely NO protection against IEDs.

I said earlier that this vehicle was aimed at the new hotness which is light vehicles for Special Ops to conduct raids in and on that point I was right.

This fills a niche that has gone unnoticed, or simply too challenging for many. Plasan tackled it and in that light they've probably done as good a job as is technologically feasible with current tech.

It's still a weird puppy but I think I understand it now.

Sidenote.  I also commented on its rough ground performance.  From looking at the vid it seems able to scoot along broken ground but the low ground clearance still gives me some concern.  From what I can see of the suspension it looks like it COULD be made adjustable but I wonder how much weight that would add and if it would be considered worthwhile for a little extra performance?  Regardless the real solution is to get the stamp of combat proven with the IDF to kick off sales.

Poland Struggles With HIMARS Buy...I expected the Poles to be a bit more pragmatic...just go domestic!

via Defense News.

The Polish government is working to renegotiate an arms deal approved by the State Department last year for the U.S.-made HIMARS long-range rocket artillery system after experiencing some sticker shock when seeing the final price tag.

The $250 million package for the rocket launcher along with guided warheads and other tactical missiles was seen as a way for Poland and NATO to push back against the Russian military buildup in neighboring Kaliningrad, which gives Moscow the ability to track and knock down Polish aircraft over Polish airspace. The HIMARS, Polish officials told me, would give them the ability to hit targets at a longer range if their aircraft were unable to fly.

But almost six months on, the deal remains a work in progress even as the Trump administration has kicked off a new initiative to eliminate red tape, speed up timelines, and cut costs for sales of U.S. military equipment to allies overseas.

Maj. Gen. Cezary Wiśniewski — a former F-16 pilot now serving as Poland’s Defense Attache to the United States — told me during a recent conversation at the Polish consulate here, his government very much wants to move forward with the HIMARS deal, but can’t at the current price. The Polish government and HIMARS-maker Lockheed Martin continue to hash out possibilities for making the deal happen, but neither side would, for the moment, give much insight on how to bring costs down.

I don't get this at all.

I expected the Poles to be a bit more pragmatic...a bit more hard nosed...a bit more focused on getting gear to their troops.

If the Americans (yeah I'm talking about us, but particularly LM) can't get the price to what they can afford then simply roll on with domestic produced rocket launchers.  They already have it in service.  Will it be NATO standard? I'm not sure but it will fill the bill, give them a system that works, and will meet the requirements that they've laid out.

Lambo's are nice but if you can't afford that then there is nothing wrong with a good dependable Ford Truck...

Will you keep up with the Joneses down the street?  Maybe not but you'll be within budget and sooner or later they'll be looking at you and envy because you were physically responsible instead of dumping a ton of cash into one area when many needed to be upgraded.

Russians are jamming EC-130s over Syria?

via Defense News.

The Compass Call is supposed to be one of America’s foremost electronic warfare weapons, but the EC-130s flying near Syria are being attacked and disabled “in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet,” the head of Special Operations Command said here today.

“Right now in Syria we are operating in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet from our adversaries. They are testing us everyday, knocking our communications down, disabling our EC-130s, etcetera,” Gen. Raymond Thomas told an audience of some 2,000 intelligence professionals.

While, for obvious reasons, we don’t know many details about the nature of the attacks on the EC-130s, we do know the Russians have done what one EW expert called a “good job” in several recent conflicts using EW. And the Russians are in force in Syria and provide most of the gear used by the Syrian military.

“The Russians have redone and reengineered their entire EW fleet in the last 20 years,” notes Lori Moe Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who specializes in EW. After the Russians attacked Georgia, they concluded they needed to upgrade their EW capabilities, she says. “The Russians put in millions on upgrades after Georgia. They’ve ended up with killer capabilities, jamming in a multitude of frequencies for hundreds of kilometers.”

She also notes that the Russians may not have gone head to head against the EC-130s EW attack capabilities. They may have taken the much easier route of interfering with the Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) or their communications gear, making it more difficult to fly the aircraft since crews would have had to rely on maps, line of sight and other techniques.

“The problem the EC-130s have is that, while they are jamming, the crews aren’t doing much else,” making them more vulnerable to attacks, she says. “They could have gone after the PNT or the comms.” The Russians “know all of our vulnerabilities.”

I'm not sure if we should be concerned.

I don't know the EC-130s capabilities but from casual reading about the plane and its use in the war on terror its been for mundane stuff like jamming IEDs and tracking the cell phones of terrorists.

I don't know if its even oriented to dealing with jamming from a peer opponent.

Considering that its housed in Special Ops and not what was once called TacAir (Air Combat Command now?) I don't believe it was ever intended to duke it out on that level.

Is this a bit humbling for those EC-130 drivers and technical guys?

I'm sure.

Is it worthy of concern?  I don't think so but I could easily be wrong.