Thursday, August 20, 2020
Rollin’ On The River
These are the pics from the vid I posted yesterday. In that blog post I predicted that LAR would disappear from the Missile Marine Corps.
Unfortunately in this case, Berger MIGHT have a point. An 8x8, 15 ton vehicle that carries a crew of 3 and up to 6 Marines with a 25mm chain gun? Compare that to this...
Simplified logistics because the vehicle is in widespread US armed forces use. Increased firepower by way of a 30mm cannon along with a javelin anti-tank missile. Equal (I'm told) ground mobility. Can't swim but can be airlifted much much much easier than the LAV?
The simple fact is this.
The LAV is outdated and needs a replacement. I'll try and find the quote in the document I love to hate but Berger did express lack of confidence in a future role for the organization.
With the emphasis on aviation I'm sure he's looking at UAVs to act as scouts and enhanced situational awareness to screen our flanks.
I believe the enemy will adjust accordingly and increase their use of anti-aircraft missiles, lasers, jamming etc...to knock down not only our aircraft but also our UAVs.
All eggs in a fragile basket.
If aviation fails. If there aren't enough missiles then this whole dream will die a painful death.
Unfortunately Marines will die with it.
But what about LAR?
In my opinion you have to have a unit that can go out and scout ahead of what little mechanized force remains (still think the ACV will get canned but we'll see what we'll see). Additionally that unit needs to be able to fight for information in an environment where comms/sats/uavs are all down (the fog of war is high).
What vehicle fits that bill?
It's gonna sound radical and many will shitcan the idea but if we're reduced to limited mech forces then we're gonna need our "cavalry" to be stronger. Obviously it can go to the old Army way of using Tanks but what about a light tank? What about the Army's new light tank?
Replace LAR with the Army's light tank and I believe that'll fit the bill. Enough firepower to fight for info. Enough armor to take a hit.
The Chinese copy the Mobile Landing Platform...
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The Chinese have no shame!
Has Turkey bitten off more than it can chew?
#Turkey Deploys troops in front line with #Syrianarmy— Sukhoi Su-57 Felon 🇷🇺🇮🇳 (@I30mki) August 19, 2020
Wow Turkey currently deploys its soldiers in 4 fronts...!!!
Syria, Libya, Armenia and Greece !!!
is it eating more then it can chew !!!pic.twitter.com/wzLGVKFFuo
Awesome tweet!
The question has to be asked. Can a medium power sustain combat operations on four fronts and possibly a 5th (I note that talk about action against Egypt has quieted tremendously over the past few weeks after making combat seem imminent)?
I don't think so.
The secret sauce so far?
The same as good ole Uncle Sam has utilized. They've kept casualties low. The most kinetic theater is just over the border and that one is probably the most justified action (from a Turk point of view).
The problem will be the lost wealth and treasure in these fights. Can they sustain it for long? I don't think so.
And that plays into US/Russian/Syrian/Kurd plans. They will simply outlast Turkey's ability to maintain these 4 wars. Something will have to give. Capitulating to Greece is out of the question. Libya provides the opportunity to recoup some of the lost money. Don't know enough about the Armenian situation to properly speculate. Which leaves Syria. Turkey would from my seat abandon further expansion into that country, reinforce it's border and simply conduct punitive air raids against the Kurds/ISIS.
They can lessen their involvement without looking like they're withdrawing.
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
2d LAR Splash Training
U.S. Marines with Charlie Company, 2d Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion, 2d Marine Division perform a floatation test with Light Armored Vehicle-25s at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, August 18, 2020. These tests are imperative to determine the seaworthiness of a vehicle for future training and operations to maintain the Division’s combat readiness.I highlighted the word "seaworthiness" for a reason. Berger has already expressed doubt about the future of LAR. This is more than a flotation test. This is a validation of what I believe are his preconceived notions about LAR, how they fit into the fight in the Pacific and whether they'll be long for the Missile Marine Corps.
I believe this unit is fighting for it's life but doesn't know it.
My guess?
If it can't swim from ship to shore, is too heavy to be carried by helo to shore (and let's be honest...it IS!), and has weapons that are overmatched by cannons carried by utility vehicles (even the Army's squad carrier mounts a 30mm cannon now) then that's all he'll need to can the unit.
My guess is that sometime in 2021 (after the 2nd quarter) we'll see LAR's colors cased.
Next Gen Navy Fighter In Development!
Story here.
I feel so vindicated and forgive me as I chest thump. THIS IS WHY the Navy has been slow to buy the F-35. It isn't a WANT airplane, its a MUST BUY TO KEEP THE OTHER SERVICES HAPPY airplane!
A few sections of the article that made me sit up....
“They could say, ‘well maybe we back off on some of the requirements when it comes to weapons payload, and maybe stealth or something, but so we keep the speed. We keep the range. We keep the C4ISR sophistication, but we relieve some of the requirements in terms of how much it carries and maybe how penetrating it can be into any airspace,’” Clark said. “And we offload those to unmanned systems, so there’s this family of systems now that instead of having five F-35s go do some mission, you’d send two of these new airplanes with some unmanned systems to do the same mission.”Clark is diplomatic but from my seat he's trying to downplay the sad truth we all know. Stealth is perishable and has maybe already perished.
The Navy plans to seek a wholly new design, rather than a derivative design of aircraft already on the production line, for the sixth-generation fighter, despite the service receiving suggestions to combine Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and Boeing’s F/A-18 designs with modern technology for the future aircraft, Clark said.Some have said that the next generation fighter would be a derivative of the F-35. This makes those thoughts a lie. The F-35 isn't in the future plans for the Navy and will be produced in such limited numbers that it really won't serve any meaningful role for the force going into the future.
While the service’s objective for fielding the new fighter aircraft had been the 2030s, when the Super Hornets would begin to reach the end of their service lives, the Navy will try to speed up that timeline because the Super Hornets are likely to reach their maximum flight hours sooner than previously anticipated, according to Clark.Let's not be cute. The Navy is going to try and accelerate production of this plane so that it competes with funding for the F-35C. That most definitely means that the F-35C buy will be cut...especially since money will be tight. We just saw the USMC destroy its tank battalions. Would it be outrageous to think that the Navy wouldn't ditch the F-35C entirely in a money saving move?
Good news.
What I want to see? If the US Missile Marine Corps is ACTUALLY about the sea fight then that means that not only will it lose some of those F-35Cs it has programmed to buy, but it also means that the Missile Marine Corps carrier units will piggyback on the Navy's buy of the new plane.
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Green Berets conducted a Full Mission Profile training exercise with members of 82nd ABN Div last week as part of Exercise Panther Storm
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I haven't been watching SOCOM but with the move toward a focus on peer vs peer combat I'm sure they're making adjustments and planning for how they'll contribute.
This small exercise in my mind, points the way forward for the Army. Looks like they will partner with conventional forces to achieve dynamic results.
Rangers? I can see them being totally compartmentalized for big raids on an objective. It's what they were built for (well not really...they're really built for long range patrol but that passed by the wayside long ago). Special Forces moving into the raiding role is kinda new but using the 82nd to provide security/support is almost a no-brainer.
That leaves MARSOC, Navy SEALs and AF Special Ops. MARSOC and SEALs will fold back into the sea battle and do all the naval special ops stuff with the additional duty of acting as forward observers on small islands (weren't they called beach watchers or something like that in WW2?) plus MAYBE acting as raiding forces against those artificial islands the Chinese are building (although I can't figure why you'd send people after something you can easily target with cruise missiles). Air Force Special Ops? I have no idea. They're kinda built on a house of cards. I don't know where they fit in.
Russian General killed in Syria...
#BREAKING | Russian general killed, two troops injured in roadside blast in Syria https://t.co/h8IYckQUhM#SputnikBreaking pic.twitter.com/1p2Fk4X85d— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) August 18, 2020
Wow. Didn't see this one coming either. Leading from the front has its risks. When was the last time we had a flag officer die in combat?
Didn't see this coming. Mutiny in Mali?
Thanks to Andrey for the link!
via Al Jazeera
17:20 GMT - Reuters: Keita arrested by mutinying soldiers, security sources say----------
Reuters news agency has reported, citing two security sources, that Mali's President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has been arrested by mutinying soldiers in the capital Bamako.
The arrest came after soldiers mutinied at the Kati army base outside of Bamako and rounded up a number of senior civilian and military officials, according to Reuters.
The report could not immediately independently verified.
15:50 GMT: ECOWAS urges Mali soldiers to 'return to barracks'Full story here.
The West African bloc ECOWAS called on the soldiers "to return to their barracks without delay".
"This mutiny comes at a time when, for several months now, ECOWAS has been taking initiatives and conducting mediation efforts with all the Malian parties," the bloc said in a statement.
15:30 GMT: Warnings of possible mutiny
Gunfire was heard at an army base near Bamako, with the Norwegian embassy talking of a possible military mutiny. Soldiers fired their guns into the air in the base in Kati, some 15km (9 miles) from Bamako.
Witnesses said armoured tanks and military vehicles could be seen on the streets of Kati, The Associated Press news agency reported.
Stabilization and nation building just don't work in the modern era. Western nations are gonna have to figure out a different way because it's faltering everywhere.
Are we simply backing the wrong horse in these conflicts or is it something else? I don't know. What I do know is that France has a mess on its hands and the nations piling in to assist are probably gonna bail soon.
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