Sunday, April 05, 2020
What should be the individual/societal lessons from this pandemic...
I don't think it's too early to start doing a "lesson's learned" with regard to this monster pandemic that China unleashed on us.
There are several individual/societal lessons to be gleamed from this incident. These are a few I came up with and hopefully you guys will have many more.
1. Health is truly the new wealth. We have turned our economy on its head to protect the most vulnerable. We had the luxury of doing so this time. We might not the next. It is essential that you strengthen your body to handle the stress of not only everyday life but most importantly against disease. The most vulnerable were not just the "aged". It was those that had compromised systems due to some other malady. Unfortunately for Americans that included obesity, diabetes (related to obesity), compromised lungs from smoking/drug use, etc...What's out of your control you can't fix (disease based on genetics) but you do have control over how fat you are, how fit you are etc.
2.. Being prepared is no longer fringe. Watching the country erupt over freaking toilet tissue was comical. Sad but comical. Being prepared for supply disruption should be hard boiled into every US family. Not just cleaning supplies, but also food. Despite the panic, our supply system appears to be stumbling thru this crisis. It might not the next. Additionally I believe that the FEMA recommended 2 weeks supply is insufficient. A month should be the bare minimum. If nothing else this crisis proves that preparedness is the new hotness.
3. Financial discipline is essential. Again we saw the US govt bailing out corporations, sending money to individuals and reinforcing unemployment payments. We probably won't be able to do that the next time around. Having at least a month pay saved isn't gonna cut it. At least 3 months savings is essential now. Probably more like 6. Additionally considering the vulnerability exposed due to this short notice (gotta chest thump...this blog was monitoring this virus when it was raging in Wuhan!) emergency, the idea that any debt is reasonable has disappeared. Financial security will require the need to shed debt as soon as possible on a personal level and to live in such a way that being cut off from income for as long as at least 3 months is survivable without becoming homeless.
4. Personal security. We noticed a decrease in crime with this pandemic. We got lucky. Don't expect this to be the case next time around. Round 2 of this pandemic will probably see more draconian measures instituted sooner with more shortages and more desperate people. Gun sales increased but you should not wait for an emergency to prepare. Now is the time to access your inventory of weapons and ammo. If you don't have a concealed carry license then now is the time to get it. We didn't see it this time but I fully expect cities to experience societal collapse in various parts of the country when this rolls back around.
5. Societal response should include understanding that the economy cannot be sacrificed for a small, vulnerable portion of the population. Modern man has a problem with death. Death is inevitable. It is part of life. Am I saying that people are expendable? Not at all. But we should be measured in our response to the dangers of this disease, future disease and future mayhem. It must be understood that national survival trumps personal survival.
That's what I have off the top of my head. Anything to add? Did I get it wrong?
There are several individual/societal lessons to be gleamed from this incident. These are a few I came up with and hopefully you guys will have many more.
1. Health is truly the new wealth. We have turned our economy on its head to protect the most vulnerable. We had the luxury of doing so this time. We might not the next. It is essential that you strengthen your body to handle the stress of not only everyday life but most importantly against disease. The most vulnerable were not just the "aged". It was those that had compromised systems due to some other malady. Unfortunately for Americans that included obesity, diabetes (related to obesity), compromised lungs from smoking/drug use, etc...What's out of your control you can't fix (disease based on genetics) but you do have control over how fat you are, how fit you are etc.
2.. Being prepared is no longer fringe. Watching the country erupt over freaking toilet tissue was comical. Sad but comical. Being prepared for supply disruption should be hard boiled into every US family. Not just cleaning supplies, but also food. Despite the panic, our supply system appears to be stumbling thru this crisis. It might not the next. Additionally I believe that the FEMA recommended 2 weeks supply is insufficient. A month should be the bare minimum. If nothing else this crisis proves that preparedness is the new hotness.
3. Financial discipline is essential. Again we saw the US govt bailing out corporations, sending money to individuals and reinforcing unemployment payments. We probably won't be able to do that the next time around. Having at least a month pay saved isn't gonna cut it. At least 3 months savings is essential now. Probably more like 6. Additionally considering the vulnerability exposed due to this short notice (gotta chest thump...this blog was monitoring this virus when it was raging in Wuhan!) emergency, the idea that any debt is reasonable has disappeared. Financial security will require the need to shed debt as soon as possible on a personal level and to live in such a way that being cut off from income for as long as at least 3 months is survivable without becoming homeless.
4. Personal security. We noticed a decrease in crime with this pandemic. We got lucky. Don't expect this to be the case next time around. Round 2 of this pandemic will probably see more draconian measures instituted sooner with more shortages and more desperate people. Gun sales increased but you should not wait for an emergency to prepare. Now is the time to access your inventory of weapons and ammo. If you don't have a concealed carry license then now is the time to get it. We didn't see it this time but I fully expect cities to experience societal collapse in various parts of the country when this rolls back around.
5. Societal response should include understanding that the economy cannot be sacrificed for a small, vulnerable portion of the population. Modern man has a problem with death. Death is inevitable. It is part of life. Am I saying that people are expendable? Not at all. But we should be measured in our response to the dangers of this disease, future disease and future mayhem. It must be understood that national survival trumps personal survival.
That's what I have off the top of my head. Anything to add? Did I get it wrong?
The Marine Corps' Radical Shift toward China via CSIS.org
via CSIS (Read the entire report here). Click on pics to enlarge them.
Again this is a MUST READ! The most stunning part of the report?
No HedgingAnd then this.
When these proposed changes are fully implemented, the Marine Corps will be well structured to fight an island campaign in the Western Pacific against China. Although the NDS allows hedging against other adversaries and conflicts—North Korea, Iran, counterterrorism—the Marine Corps does not plan to do that. As General Berger stated in his guidance: “[This] single purpose-built future force will be applied against other challenges across the globe; however, we will not seek to hedge or balance our investments to account for those contingencies.”
The lack of hedging means that the Marine Corps will not field the broad set of capabilities it has in the past. It will be poorly structured to fight the kind of campaigns that it had to fight in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. The history of the last 70 years has been that the United States deters great power conflict and fights regional and stability conflicts. Although forces can adapt, as seen during the long counterinsurgency campaigns in the Middle East, there is a delay and an initial lack of expertise. The Marine Corps might plan to defer these conflicts to the Army, but that has not worked in the past. Army forces have been too small to keep the Marine Corps out of sustained ground combat.
Marine Corps officials have argued privately that other kinds of conflicts would be lesser included capabilities of this focus on high-end conflict in the Western Pacific. This is misplaced. History is littered with examples of militaries that prepared for one kind of conflict and then had to fight a very different kind of conflict. In the best circumstances, militaries adapt at the cost of time and blood. In the worst circumstances, the result is catastrophic failure.
For example, in the 1950s and early-1960s the U.S. Army focused on great power conflict in Europe against the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. That Army then had to fight a counterinsurgency conflict in Southeast Asia. As Andrew Krepinevich argued, the Army was “a superb instrument for combating the field armies of its adversaries in conventional wars but an inefficient and ineffective force for defeating insurgent guerrilla forces.”
The Army and Navy use their reserve components to hedge against unexpected demands. Thus, their reserve components do not look like the active component but are imbalanced. For example, most of the Army’s medical, transportation, engineering, civil affairs, and psychological operations units are in the reserve component.
The new Marine Corps structure might have kept some tanks, towed artillery, bridging units, military police, or logistics in the reserves as a hedge against a future war involving ground combat against a national army or a counterinsurgency campaign. However, the plan does not include such hedges.
The Uncertain Viability of New War-fighting ConceptsThis is my greatest fear. Why haven't you seen distributed operations as a foundation of fighting in the past?
The final risk is whether this new war-fighting concept of distributed operations within the adversary’s weapons engagement zone will work. The Marine Corps has sensibly conducted a lot of war-gaming and satisfied itself that the concept will succeed. However, as Marines note, the enemy gets a vote. Maintaining small and vulnerable units deep inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone will be challenging. Even small units need a continuous resupply with fuel and munitions. If that is not possible, or if the Chinese figure out a way to hunt these units down, the concept collapses.
Because small units can be hunted down and destroyed...rather easily by a competent foe. We saw that happen in Afghanistan to Special Operations Units and I believe, if this plan is implemented, that you'll see the Chinese locate, pin down and then conduct deliberate attacks to destroy these Marine Corps forces.
The same applies to our ships. Independent ship operations are fraught with danger. Once a lone ship is located. It will be focus fired into oblivion.
Regardless. Ignore my fears and read what CSIS has to say about this new concept.
Saturday, April 04, 2020
Solid advice on the pandemic via a pic from WW2...
Not sure if this is the real story behind this pic or not...but the message is clear. If you're in this pandemic and you can't control a jackass then at least avoid them. They're a bomb just waiting to go off!
China forced Italy to buy back the same PPE that Italy had donated to them during the crisis in Wuhan City...
NEW: A senior admin official tells me that China forced Italy to buy back the same PPE they had donated to China at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak— Amber Athey (@amber_athey) April 4, 2020
"China then has sent Italian PPE back to Italy … and charged them for it," the official said.https://t.co/Skeyhffjv3
NSC staffers heard saying "we've got to do everything we can to take out the President"...
via Real Clear Investigations.
Two NSC co-workers told RCI that they overheard Ciaramella and Misko - who was also working at the NSC as an analyst - making anti-Trump remarks to each other while attending a staff-wide NSC meeting called by then-National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, where they sat together in the south auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, part of the White House complex.Story here.
The “all hands” meeting, held about two weeks into the new administration, was attended by hundreds of NSC employees.
“They were popping off about how they were going to remove Trump from office. No joke,” said one ex-colleague, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
A military staffer detailed to the NSC, who was seated directly in front of Ciaramella and Misko during the meeting, confirmed hearing them talk about toppling Trump during their private conversation, which the source said lasted about one minute. The crowd was preparing to get up to leave the room at the time.
“After Flynn briefed [the staff] about what ‘America First’ foreign policy means, Ciaramella turned to Misko and commented, ‘We need to take him out,’ ” the staffer recalled. “And Misko replied, ‘Yeah, we need to do everything we can to take out the president.’ “
Added the military detailee, who spoke on condition of anonymity: “By ‘taking him out,’ they meant removing him from office by any means necessary. They were triggered by Trump’s and Flynn’s vision for the world. This was the first ‘all hands’ [staff meeting] where they got to see Trump’s national security team, and they were huffing and puffing throughout the briefing any time Flynn said something they didn’t like about ‘America First.’ ”
He said he also overheard Ciaramella telling Misko, referring to Trump, "We can’t let him enact this foreign policy."
Alarmed by their conversation, the military staffer immediately reported what he heard to his superiors.
Deep State confirmed.
The amphibious helicopter carrier Mistral has arrived in Mayotte to support local authorities in the fight against the Covid-19.
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Unexpected good news from the coronavirus pandemic. Mexican drug cartels are turning on each other...
The global coronavirus lockdown is making it hard for Mexican drug cartels to operate.— DW News (@dwnews) April 4, 2020
With borders shut and limited air traffic, cartels are turning on each other. https://t.co/fC21wYD8Xa
This is good and bad. The part of the population that are drug heads probably need to be "medicated" more than ever and are having a hard time getting their fix.
Too bad so bad. Consider this time a forced "clean up" period.
Live fire aboard the USS America...
U.S. @PacifcMarines with the @31stMEU, enhance interoperability with allies during a live-fire exercise aboard @USPacificFleet amphibious assault ship USS America #LHA6. #31MEU. #Lethality #Partnership #FreeandOpenIndoPacific. pic.twitter.com/DvJgoB3vQo— U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (@INDOPACOM) April 4, 2020
Is it just me or is the belt kit increasing dramatically? Any idea what the load out is?
Kamov Ka-52 Alligator RuAF
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Could this be why the DoD sent forces toward SouthCom?
Bodies of #COVID19 victims pile up in streets of #Ecuador as residents beg authorities for help https://t.co/hGelrd2tq0 pic.twitter.com/FBwvF1fEpS— RT (@RT_com) April 4, 2020
Two things are possible with this...
1. We can see nation states collapse.
2. We could see a massive run at the border.
Shit is about to get real in Central and South America. We might see a couple of divisions sent to the border and a few more sent to help stabilize countries in the SouthCom's area of responsibility.
I've been so focused on the US and Europe that I didn't properly consider the drama facing our southern neighbors.
Venezuela? Primed for an implosion. Things could get dicey there quick...and then the floodgates will open.
The Asian Flu Pandemic in '57 caused 100K deaths but no lockdown. Why now?
Just got off phone w my Mom & she said she had Asian Flu in '57 pandemic & that I had the Hong Kong Flu in '68 pandemic. Combined, these virulent influenza outbreaks took 100k+ U.S. lives, yet no lockdowns. Why? No 24/7 media hysteria. "We had no idea how many people were dying"— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) April 4, 2020
I'm just reacting to this tweet. Haven't verified it. But if true. Then the question becomes. Why the dramatic response to this outbreak.
I will sound like a brute by saying this...but...we've only had 8k deaths so far (yes..I know...every death is someone's loved one and I seriously get that...I have family members in the vulnerable zone) but as a nation it's not a big hit.
The population affected was for the most part already suffering from some type of malady. Whether diabetes, obesity, cancer, etc...they were already in a vulnerable state.
So if we could take a 100K hit in the late 50's and during the late 60's then why are these relatively few numbers so traumatizing?
Additionally what makes this outbreak so terrifying that we resorted to such extreme measures?
Trump (for all those that hate him...I don't...not love but definitely not hate) is right on this one. WE MUST GET OUR ECONOMY GOING AGAIN! Even now we've set ourselves up for a terrible time with the MASSIVE SPENDING that was just unleashed.
I haven't read it anywhere but inflation beyond our recognition has to be coming down the pike soon. Couple that with some insane unemployment if some businesses never re-open and we're already looking at a doomsday scenario economically.
Its not just us either. It's every nation.
Have we just unknowingly lit the fuse for some dramatic shifts in the world as we know it?
Marine Commandant: Less A Second Land Army, More Light Amphib Ships
Another must read. This time from Breaking Defense. Same subject just a different perspective on what the Commandant said. Questions. If the Marine Corps is disbanding its Air-Ground Task Force (and it is for all practical purposes) then why do we need 3 Divisions? Why do we need 3 MEFs? With the reduction in size of the Infantry then we're gonna be running understrength Battalions. You're gonna have alot of overhead for MUCH fewer Marines. Additionally the Army has Infantry. The Army has Missiles. The Army has rotary aircraft. If you take Berger's words to their logical conclusion then we're still not providing unique capabilities. Forcible entry is off the table. Additionally you can practically scratch the idea of a MEU being able to be the "entry force" for follow on units. Against a mechanized force we will be much too light to even think of holding ground. We will be able to scoot with the best of them but dig in and hold on till the Army arrives? That's off the table. Quite honestly I'm really wondering why the ACV is continuing. With his plan that vehicle makes no sense for the "new" Marine Corps. Why is the AAV continuing? And that's the point. Those vehicles will be gone with phase II of this plan.
Berger isn't here to save the Corps. He's here to kill it.
via Breaking Defense.
“We need to do less duplication of a second sort of land army and more to provide the nation unique capabilities that an amphibious and maritime and expeditionary crisis response force provides,” he said, meaning the Marines seven companies’ worth of M1 Abrams tanks are going to go away. “What we do not want to do was replicate what the Army is already very, very good at.”The Army is very good at fires. With ATACMS they're very good at LONG RANGE FIRES. As a matter of fact even with the increase of missile batteries the Army will still have more. Oh and be advised. The Army said that they were getting into the ship killing business!
It’s not only immensely heavy tanks that will disappear. Other legacy platforms like heavy- and medium-helicopter squadrons and towed artillery are also on the chopping block. In addition, the plan calls for eliminating law enforcement units, bridging companies, three infantry battalions, and anti-aircraft units.That's my point. 3 infantry battalions gone along with tanks? You do realize that's almost a regiment of infantry right? I guess the Marine Corps is gonna depend on the Army (again) for anti-aircraft help?
While he has previously questioned the need for the Navy’s requirement of 38 amphibious ships to haul Marines across the globe, Berger has promoted the idea of a new class of light amphibious warships, lightly crewed, to get smaller groups of Marines to the fight ashore without being such large targets.
One of the biggest surprises in the 10-year force assessment the Marines issued was the open questioning of the role the F-35 might play in the Corps’ future. It called for a change in how many planes are contained in each F-35 squad, from 16 to 10. Current plans call for the Marines to buy 353 of the F-35B and 67 of the F-35C carrier variants. It’s unclear whether this is the beginning of a smaller official plan to buy F-35Bs.I'm not saying dude is lying and that's a batshit crazy statement, but either he's lying his ass off or he needs to get back on his meds. In essence if the F-35 is great then he needs less of them. If it sucks ass he needs more? How the FUCK is he saying this kind of shit with a straight face!
Berger affirmed this week that “there’s nothing like” the F-35 anywhere in the world, but he needs more information about the long-term costs of the plane’s readiness and maintainability.
“If the maintenance readiness of the F-35 proves to be very, very strong, then of course, like any other system you need less of them because more of them are up all the time,” he said, but, “on the other hand, if it turns out not to be so, then you’re going to need more of them, to account for the ones that are in repair, that are down right now.”
I'm surprised Paul didn't laugh in the dudes face....or spit his coffee into his face for saying a whopper like that!
I'm glad I wasn't there cause this would have been my reaction....
This whole thing has annoyed me greatly but I've finally figured it out (at 4:48am). They're slow walking this roll out. This thing is probably so radical, so mind numbingly stupid (to people like me) that we'd recoil in horror and start writing our Congress Critters.
There is only one thing I'm certain of. The old saying that there is no new Marine Corps or old Marine Corps there is only THE MARINE CORPS no longer applies.
Berger is making a clear distinction between old Corps and new.
Let's all hope they're getting it right and I'm spazzing for nothing. If they screwed up (and it looks to me like they are) then YOUR kids will be filling body bags. No way in hell I'd ever recommend this new monstrosity to a young man looking to serve his country. Better the Army, Navy or god help me, the Air Force. For the first time in my memory they seem like much better options.
Marines’ Force Design 2030 May Allow MEUs Tailored for Different Geographies, Adversaries
Note. This is a must read article. Check it out here. I'm putting this at the top so I can be understood from the start. I need to know more about this concept. A recurring theme has developed at HQMC. They make plans, start down roads but while they're in motion the refrain is that "we need to learn more". It almost like I need to take Colonels and Generals back to phase 1 and teach them what BAMCIS means!
via USNI News.
Asked by USNI News what made him confident in EABO but not confident in the formations that would execute it, he said he had a fair understanding of what a Japan-based MEU or MLR might look like, but that California- and North Carolina-based Marines would need to craft their own kinds of units too to support EABO operations in the environments they’d most likely deploy to.Read the entire article (link at the top). Once you've done that then come back and let's play a quarantine game.
“I fully embrace the concept of Distributed Maritime Operations the way that the former CNO laid it out and the current CNO embraces it. I think that Littoral Operations in a Contested Environment is something that we have to embrace and be prepared to operate in. Within that, Expeditionary Advance Base Ops, EABO, is a method, is a technique, and it has proven so far in the wargames to be very effective – if you can pull it off. And it’s not easy to do,” Berger told USNI News during the media roundtable.
“So that concept, that method, that technique of EABO poses a number of challenges for an adversary: it complicates their ability to find you and to track you, complicates their ability to engage you, and it also reassures the partners and the allies that you’re trying to work with, because you’re very dispersed among them, you’re with them – not in a standoff mode, you’re in a stand-in mode.”
“So how does that tie in to where we’re not as confident in the construct of a MLR and what the MEU of the future ought to look like? First thing I would ask you to just take onboard with us is just, we are at the point where we’re learning. We are already convinced based on wargames and modeling so far that we have a fairly good idea of what an MLR in III MEF in Japan, based out of Japan and operating in the Pacific, could look like. We have a lot more to learn there and we may absolutely adjust the framework of that in the future. What we’re not as confident in is, what is II MEF in the East Coast, what is I MEF in the West Coast, what should they build? Do they have to be mirror image? Should they look exactly in the same template and the same model? And I’m of the mode at this stage in the learning, no. Our learning should be, what is the best construct that makes sense for their operating environments?” the commandant continued.
“Same with MEUs. We have had one framework, one construct for a MEU: all seven of them had to be mirror image for the last couple of decades because they were largely flowing to the Middle East to do a mission in Central Command. Going forward, what they were originally designed for, where they’re global, now we should have the latitude for a Marine Expeditionary Unit in one place may look different than another Marine Expeditionary Unit. So when I say less confident, what I’m trying to communicate is, A), they don’t have to all be mirror image, we should be able to tailor them to their operating environment, and B), we don’t want to create all looking one way and then undo that two years from now when we discover that that’s not the best way to construct it in Camp Lejeune, it should be a little bit different. So we’ll use the ones in Japan as kind of the test bed, we’ll learn from that. The other two parts of the Fleet Marine Force will watch, will observe, and then we’ll figure out how they ought to be constructed, and it could be the same or it could be different.”
Everytime the Commandant says "learning" or "figure out" or "adjust" or "not as confident" take a shot of Jack Daniels or your favorite drink (gotta be alcohol to make it funny).
If you're not buzzed then you're an alcoholic and I recommend you get help.
Seriously though.
Do you remember The 3 Block War? Do you remember Ship To Objective Maneuver?
They all made sense. They were all figured out. They all were clearly defined, had the support of everyone involved because they made SENSE and we knew what weapon systems were needed before it was rolled out.
We're on a path where we keep getting these concepts that are being instituted on the run, change constantly and have the hallmark of leadership saying that they need to learn more while they're trying to sell it to the Corps.
For the love of all that's Holy can we please take a beat and get ourselves sorted out? Take the time to flesh this thing out from A to Z and back again. Test it in simulations. Test it in the field. And then once you've done all that come back with a plan that you can believe in and you are beyond learning whether or not it works, have full confidence in and know what we need to buy/organize to win on future battlefields.
Ever since Amos the Commandant's office has been seriously adrift. I don't know what's going on but it needs to get its bearing before it wrecks a great organization.
As things stand now I'm sure of only one thing. There is no clarity in the Marine Corps. We have taken unwarranted criticism and institutionalized it. Amos used it as a talking point to get his airplane and for some reason its become ingrained in the officer corps...especially the flag officer club. I don't understand it but they truly believed that second Army bullshit and took it to heart.
So what will the future be? I'm betting the end of the Marine Corps. We won't do forcible entry. Berger doesn't even talk about it. We definitely won't be able to assist the Army if another Desert Storm type situation arrives.
So what will we have? Airplanes, missiles and tiltrotors. The Navy can take our planes. The Army can do the missile work and I guess the Coast Guard can use our tiltrotors.
Berger is laying the groundwork for the end of the Marine Corps.
31st MEU conducts maritime strike full mission profile....pics by Lance Cpl. Colton Garrett
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| An AH-1Z Viper helicopter with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 265 (Reinforced), 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), fires an AIM-9M sidewinder missile at a maritime target during a live fire exercise. During the exercise, the attack helicopters took off from San Antonio-class dock landing ship USS Green Bay (LPD 20) in order to protect the amphibious task force from a simulated maritime threat. The America Expeditionary Strike Group, 31st MEU team, is operating in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with allies and partners and serve as a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Colton K. Garrett) |
So the Marine Corps IS using the AIM-9M Sidewinder in the maritime attack role! Nicely Done! I also see that they're carrying extra fuel tanks. So by the pics I guess we're seeing the Viper sharpening its teeth to go after small ships in addition to boats? One thing I'm not getting. Why not go with a bigger, dedicated anti-ship missile? I know its obsolete now (at least I think it is) but the Sea Skua or even the more modern Sea Venom would seem to be what the doctor ordered.
UNLESS the sidewinder has longer range. I don't know enough about its capabilities in this role to say one way or the other. Definitely need to learn more.
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