Saturday, August 22, 2020
Friday, August 21, 2020
China's response to the Missile Marine gives me pause. Does the concept really rattle their cage?
via Sputnik.
Beijing has warned the US against deploying its ground-based missiles in the Asia Pacific region, promising to take "countermeasures" and threatening any states that host such weaponry with consequences.Here.
"The US attempt to deploy land-based, medium-range missiles is consistent with its increasing military presence in the Asia Pacific and so-called 'Indo-Pacific strategy' over the past years, a typical demonstration of its Cold War mentality," China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Friday.
Washington's "words and deeds" over recent years have greatly contributed to the erosion of global and regional stability, the official added, as well as impacting "international arms control and disarmament process, [and undercutting] mutual trust between major countries."
This response gives me pause. Are the Chinese this rattled over the Missile Marines & US Army deploying ground based missiles in the Pacific?
If it's only about the threat of missiles to their shipping then I WAS WRONG!!! Full stop. Nothing else to say on the subject. I WAS WRONG!!!!
However there is another option here.
Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? The US and USSR almost went to war over nuclear missiles stationed just off our coast. History shows that the USSR made the move in response to the US placing missile in Turkey.
I've always assumed that the US would never launch conventional missiles or even launch conventional airstrikes on mainland China.
What if the Chinese aren't so sure (hypersonics make the issue magnitudes more challenging today...we could launch preemptively and cripple their command & nuclear forces in one swift salvo while they're verifying their radars)?
If so then they're simply reacting in the same way that we did back then. They're protecting their homeland against a possible strike. We wouldn't tolerate Chinese missiles in Cuba or Guatemala or Nicaragua and I'm guessing they feel the same way about their neighborhood.
If the second theory is the correct one then we're probably gonna see an escalation that we didn't expect REAL soon.
I just can't pick a side with confidence. Quite honestly I want it to be the latter and not the former (did I get that right) but I'm stuck on my preconceived notion and don't know if I'm analyzing this without bias.
Any guesses?
Sidenote. I will do a small bit of chest thumping on one issue. I did say that basing rights for these missiles would be problematic and that's been proven correct. The Pacific isn't Europe and they don't view China like Europe viewed the USSR. It's a VERY pragmatic region. Culturally they will do the smart thing when two great powers get into a fight (with the exception of probably only Japan and Australia), they'll sit it out and see who wins then they'll make nice with the winner.
Maiden flight of first EMD Red Hawk jet slated for September 2021
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This plane is just screaming to be turned into a light attack platform. Hope someone in the Pentagon is thinking. Limited resources will require max use of cost effective systems we have in the pipeline.
CV9030N Oppklaringspanservognen (OPV), upgraded recce variant of CV9030N to CV90 Mk III+ standard
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Up close with an IM-SHORAD prototype
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Thursday, August 20, 2020
I think about that every single day." – SSG David Bellavia, Co A, 2-2 1st ID, Fallujah, Iraq, Nov 10, 2004
via ZeroFucks Instagram Page.
"There was a blood trail up the stairs, so I'm thinking that I'm going up those stairs, kill the guy and smoke a cigarette. That was going to be my reward.
I get up the stairs and, the jihadist I had shot repeatedly, had his AK47 right at the landing. My boot slid on a puddle of his blood, and as my foot went to the side, he shot. It was just because I slipped in his blood, that he didn't blow my face off...and we just started going at it.
We were choking and punching each other, he bit me right in the throat. I guess there are no rules. I was trying to kill this guy, he was trying to kill me.
I had a knife and I stabbed him right in the neck. I then just felt a bunch of warmth..oozing warmth. He just took his hand and caressed the side of my face. I don't know if he was thanking me for sending him to paradise, respecting me, or what. I used to think he was forgiving me.
I think about that every single day." – SSG David Bellavia, Co A, 2-2 1st ID, Fallujah, Iraq, Nov 10, 2004
25th ID Jungle Operations Training Course
The US Army is coming for the Missile Marine's milkshake. They WILL conduct operations worldwide AND WILL NOT focus only on China.
In history we've seen US generals attempt to plan for the next war. Every time they've been wrong. After WW2 it was thought we'd be involved in a nuclear war. Korea came calling. After Korea the thinking was that we'd see a fight in the Fulda Gap. Instead Vietnam came calling. In between all that we saw various crises all over the globe.
Now we have Missile Marine Corps leadership predicting that a major fight will happen in the first island chain.
I think they're wrong. Dead wrong (it'll be in Africa but no one is listening!).
The fight will be elsewhere and the Missile Marine WILL NOT BE EQUIPPED to fight it! Worse? Even if the fight does come to the Pacific the Missile Marines will be SUPPORT for the Army/Navy warfighters (on sea and/or land).
Berger is building a one trick pony that might never get rode. If it does it will still fail.
Meanwhile the Army is coming. We're seeing the 25th ID focused on the Pacific but what happens when the Koreans finally accept responsibility for their own defense and the 2nd ID can deploy theater wide?
WHEN the US Army decides to task orient their divisions to specific theaters and start piling more anti-ship/anti-air/UAVs/helos in this arena then what will the nation need the Marine Corps for with its planned organizational concept? It won't be a general purpose. It will be sole purposed and only designed for one foe...and even probably fail at that.
Rollin’ On The River
These are the pics from the vid I posted yesterday. In that blog post I predicted that LAR would disappear from the Missile Marine Corps.
Unfortunately in this case, Berger MIGHT have a point. An 8x8, 15 ton vehicle that carries a crew of 3 and up to 6 Marines with a 25mm chain gun? Compare that to this...
Simplified logistics because the vehicle is in widespread US armed forces use. Increased firepower by way of a 30mm cannon along with a javelin anti-tank missile. Equal (I'm told) ground mobility. Can't swim but can be airlifted much much much easier than the LAV?
The simple fact is this.
The LAV is outdated and needs a replacement. I'll try and find the quote in the document I love to hate but Berger did express lack of confidence in a future role for the organization.
With the emphasis on aviation I'm sure he's looking at UAVs to act as scouts and enhanced situational awareness to screen our flanks.
I believe the enemy will adjust accordingly and increase their use of anti-aircraft missiles, lasers, jamming etc...to knock down not only our aircraft but also our UAVs.
All eggs in a fragile basket.
If aviation fails. If there aren't enough missiles then this whole dream will die a painful death.
Unfortunately Marines will die with it.
But what about LAR?
In my opinion you have to have a unit that can go out and scout ahead of what little mechanized force remains (still think the ACV will get canned but we'll see what we'll see). Additionally that unit needs to be able to fight for information in an environment where comms/sats/uavs are all down (the fog of war is high).
What vehicle fits that bill?
It's gonna sound radical and many will shitcan the idea but if we're reduced to limited mech forces then we're gonna need our "cavalry" to be stronger. Obviously it can go to the old Army way of using Tanks but what about a light tank? What about the Army's new light tank?
Replace LAR with the Army's light tank and I believe that'll fit the bill. Enough firepower to fight for info. Enough armor to take a hit.
The Chinese copy the Mobile Landing Platform...
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The Chinese have no shame!
Has Turkey bitten off more than it can chew?
#Turkey Deploys troops in front line with #Syrianarmy— Sukhoi Su-57 Felon 🇷🇺🇮🇳 (@I30mki) August 19, 2020
Wow Turkey currently deploys its soldiers in 4 fronts...!!!
Syria, Libya, Armenia and Greece !!!
is it eating more then it can chew !!!pic.twitter.com/wzLGVKFFuo
Awesome tweet!
The question has to be asked. Can a medium power sustain combat operations on four fronts and possibly a 5th (I note that talk about action against Egypt has quieted tremendously over the past few weeks after making combat seem imminent)?
I don't think so.
The secret sauce so far?
The same as good ole Uncle Sam has utilized. They've kept casualties low. The most kinetic theater is just over the border and that one is probably the most justified action (from a Turk point of view).
The problem will be the lost wealth and treasure in these fights. Can they sustain it for long? I don't think so.
And that plays into US/Russian/Syrian/Kurd plans. They will simply outlast Turkey's ability to maintain these 4 wars. Something will have to give. Capitulating to Greece is out of the question. Libya provides the opportunity to recoup some of the lost money. Don't know enough about the Armenian situation to properly speculate. Which leaves Syria. Turkey would from my seat abandon further expansion into that country, reinforce it's border and simply conduct punitive air raids against the Kurds/ISIS.
They can lessen their involvement without looking like they're withdrawing.
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
2d LAR Splash Training
U.S. Marines with Charlie Company, 2d Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion, 2d Marine Division perform a floatation test with Light Armored Vehicle-25s at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, August 18, 2020. These tests are imperative to determine the seaworthiness of a vehicle for future training and operations to maintain the Division’s combat readiness.I highlighted the word "seaworthiness" for a reason. Berger has already expressed doubt about the future of LAR. This is more than a flotation test. This is a validation of what I believe are his preconceived notions about LAR, how they fit into the fight in the Pacific and whether they'll be long for the Missile Marine Corps.
I believe this unit is fighting for it's life but doesn't know it.
My guess?
If it can't swim from ship to shore, is too heavy to be carried by helo to shore (and let's be honest...it IS!), and has weapons that are overmatched by cannons carried by utility vehicles (even the Army's squad carrier mounts a 30mm cannon now) then that's all he'll need to can the unit.
My guess is that sometime in 2021 (after the 2nd quarter) we'll see LAR's colors cased.
Next Gen Navy Fighter In Development!
Story here.
I feel so vindicated and forgive me as I chest thump. THIS IS WHY the Navy has been slow to buy the F-35. It isn't a WANT airplane, its a MUST BUY TO KEEP THE OTHER SERVICES HAPPY airplane!
A few sections of the article that made me sit up....
“They could say, ‘well maybe we back off on some of the requirements when it comes to weapons payload, and maybe stealth or something, but so we keep the speed. We keep the range. We keep the C4ISR sophistication, but we relieve some of the requirements in terms of how much it carries and maybe how penetrating it can be into any airspace,’” Clark said. “And we offload those to unmanned systems, so there’s this family of systems now that instead of having five F-35s go do some mission, you’d send two of these new airplanes with some unmanned systems to do the same mission.”Clark is diplomatic but from my seat he's trying to downplay the sad truth we all know. Stealth is perishable and has maybe already perished.
The Navy plans to seek a wholly new design, rather than a derivative design of aircraft already on the production line, for the sixth-generation fighter, despite the service receiving suggestions to combine Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and Boeing’s F/A-18 designs with modern technology for the future aircraft, Clark said.Some have said that the next generation fighter would be a derivative of the F-35. This makes those thoughts a lie. The F-35 isn't in the future plans for the Navy and will be produced in such limited numbers that it really won't serve any meaningful role for the force going into the future.
While the service’s objective for fielding the new fighter aircraft had been the 2030s, when the Super Hornets would begin to reach the end of their service lives, the Navy will try to speed up that timeline because the Super Hornets are likely to reach their maximum flight hours sooner than previously anticipated, according to Clark.Let's not be cute. The Navy is going to try and accelerate production of this plane so that it competes with funding for the F-35C. That most definitely means that the F-35C buy will be cut...especially since money will be tight. We just saw the USMC destroy its tank battalions. Would it be outrageous to think that the Navy wouldn't ditch the F-35C entirely in a money saving move?
Good news.
What I want to see? If the US Missile Marine Corps is ACTUALLY about the sea fight then that means that not only will it lose some of those F-35Cs it has programmed to buy, but it also means that the Missile Marine Corps carrier units will piggyback on the Navy's buy of the new plane.
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