Obama Care Repeal Died Tonight...So did any chance for a defense increase...

via Roll Call.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pulled the plug late Monday on the Republican effort to overhaul the U.S. health insurance system and pledged the chamber will now focus on only dismantling the 2010 health care law.

“Regretfully, it is now apparent that the effort to repeal and immediately replace the failure of Obamacare will not be successful,” the Kentucky Republican said.

His statement came after GOP Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Jerry Moran of Kansas said they did not support the latest Senate health care draft and would not vote for a motion to proceed. Lee and Moran joined Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine in opposition to the procedural motion, leaving McConnell without the votes needed to move forward on the Senate bill.

McConnell said the Senate will now take up the House-passed health care bill and amend it with legislation the Senate supported in 2015 to repeal the 2010 health care law “with a two-year delay to provide for a stable transition period to a patient-centered health care system that gives Americans access to quality, affordable care.”

Story here. 

Many will look at this story as simply a case of the Republican leadership failing to pass a key piece of its legislative agenda.

They're wrong.

This is a multi-faceted story with many lessons to be learned, many clues included and illustrate for those willing to see it the changing landscape of the American economic/political and social scene.

*  Many Trump voters were against the repeal.  Why?  Because unlike all the economic reports that are floated out to show an improving economy its just not so.  Many Americans are in an economic hurt locker and in their quiet places admit that they need the socialized medicine that Obamacare provides.

*  The economy just hasn't improved.  How do we know?  Because IF things actually were better inflation would be roaring.  It isn't.  Full employment?  NOT bloody likely!  We'd see wage pressure.  Automation and globalization to blame?  Yeah kinda, but its more ominous than that.  Big business has cracked the code on exploiting workers in the new age.  This means something bad but I can't quite put it together.

But to the focus of this blog post it also means that ANY chance of a defense spending increase just died tonight.

Endless wars?

That won't be enough to shake the purse strings either!

We are in a catch 22 of our own making.  Obamacare repeal was the first step in controlling social spending in the US which takes up an ENORMOUS portion of our budget and is a huge driver of our debt.

With this program firmly in place and many others of the kind, we won't be able to go on a sustained rearmament.

Not only will we be unable to match the Chinese industrial output but we won't be able to afford leap ahead weapons (assuming we could get them to work) to make up the difference.

The biggest threat to US defense wasn't an outside enemy.  It was uncontrolled spending.

Now?

Faced with endless wars, social experiments with the military and runaway debt we've guaranteed that the Chinese will win the next war without firing a shot.

Obamacare repeal could have led to a turnaround in the decline of our great nation and would have signalled a return to principles of civic responsibility...putting the nation's needs ahead of the individual.

Congress and the American people failed.

That is why we will lose the next great war.

Australian Woman killed by police in Minnesota, that she called to report a crime...

via Heavy.

Justine Damond – the name she used professionally – was in her pajamas speaking with a police officer who was in the driver’s seat of a police vehicle that responded to her call when the officer in the passenger side allegedly “pulled his gun and shot Damond through the driver’s side door,” The Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting through three sources. The officers’ body cameras were not turned on.

The officer who shot Damond was named by KTSP-TV as Mohamed Noor, the first Somali-American police officer in his precinct. Damond was shot multiple times, the television station reported. Noor, 31, had only been on the force since 2015.

Justine was engaged to marry Don Damond, who is vice president and manager of Little Six Casino in Minnesota. On LinkedIn, Justine defined herself as a “Speaker, Coach & Consultant for Neuroscience & Meditation Based Change Initiatives.”

Story here. 

This incident will be instructive and informative.

1.  Many take the stance that the police do no wrong.  They instinctively defend police even when its obvious that they had an "oh shit" moment.  How they react to this will be interesting.

2.  The flipside will also be interesting.  The minority communities sometimes instinctively protest police shootings even when its obvious that police just ran into a bad guy.  Will they be quiet?

I've had the suspicion that police shootings aren't based in right or wrong but totally racial in nature.

This woman's unfortunate death will yank back the current on these types of incidents.  Is it all about race?  Does race play a part in this?  Will police supporters still support them when they see a young white lady killed in a questionable shooting?  Will BLM even do a press release supporting the victim?  Will the NRA do a press release supporting police?  What will the police union do?  Does the officer being of Somali origin play any role in this?

This will be an uncomfortable but quite welcome examination of American culture.

Popcorn?  Hell no.  I think we're all gonna need a VERY stiff drink to take in what we're undoubtedly about to learn.

Sidenote:  I just had a disturbing thought.  What if this was a terror attack?  We know the Somali community has been deeply penetrated by ISIS.  What if this guy was inspired to kill...while wearing a badge?

The fight in Iraq was clear cut and simple. Syria? Dazed and confused...

via Almasdarnews.com

An astonishing four T-72 tanks were watched from afar by Failaq Al-Rahman (Free Syrian Army branch) as its militants struck the front end of the convoy with a guided anti-tank missile, causing one of the armored vehicles to plunge into a nearby river.

According to a military source based in Damascus, the incident took place on Sunday afternoon and forced the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) tank crew to ‘abandon ship’ and leave the vehicle faceplanted in a small river in the embattled Ayn Tarma suburb.

Shortly after, three other SAA tanks moved in to cover the site, likely to allow infantry units and mechanics to mop-up the area and recover the partially damaged vehicle.
The SAA military source added that five of the FSA’s TOW crews have been killed in the Ayn Tarma suburb alone while some 400 insurgents have been killed or injured over the past 25 days alone across the eastern Damascus frontline.

Counter-insurgency efforts in the Ayn Tarma, Zamalka and Jobar suburbs in east Damascus are spearheaded by the 105th and 106th Brigades of the Republican Guards who are battling the FSA and its staunch ally Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), considered a tacit Al-Qaeda franchise group.

Story and a vid of the action (along with some terrible music) here. 

Now I get it.

Now I understand why the Obama Admin and military leaders said the fight in Syria to destroy ISIS would take so long.

We're dazed and confused there.

In Iraq their was a singular purpose.  To destroy ISIS.  A clear military objective that was clearly achievable led to a clear victory.  Don't get me wrong.  It took longer than it could because the Iraqi civilian leadership was a bit stubborn, but still it got done.

Syria on the other hand is faced with a muddled battlefield with conflicting objectives and allies that are either terrorist, terrorist connected or have agendas of their own.

What do I mean?  The Syrian Free Army.  Who are these guys?  From everything I've read they're just allies that we're gonna have to kill at a later date.  So what do we do?  We give them freaking TOW Missiles!  They're allied with ISIS that we say we're trying to kill, and while we're trying to kill ISIS we're also trying to kill Assad and by extension his troops that are also trying to kill ISIS.

Russia is trying to kill ISIS and help Assad, but they're also trying to kill the Syrian Free Army which are terrorist that we will have to kill later, and the terrorist named the Syrian Free Army are also aligned with ISIS that we're trying to kill now.

To make matters worse we have a military airfield inside Syria now (widely reported in Arab news...even photographed much to my annoyance...how long before they get hit in a Camp Leatherneck rerun?), the Kurds are trying to setup a separate nation and Turkey has made incursions into Syria and claimed territory.

We won't win in Syria this year because the policy is still fucked up beyond recognition.

The Deep State, Neo-Cons, Military Establishment, Foreign Policy Hawks and Generational War Zealots win again.

Britain spends billions on flawed fighter jets

Thanks to Ernest for the link!

via TheTimes.co.uk.

Britain is paying hundreds of millions of pounds in hidden costs for a next-generation warplane that will be unable to function properly because of defence cuts, an investigation by The Times has revealed.

The F-35 Lightning II, the most expensive aircraft of its kind, has been described by Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, as the “most powerful and comprehensive” fast jet in history. Its American manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, has said that the aircraft will cost Britain between £77 million and £100 million each.

However, taxpayers face spending more than £150 million for each of the high-tech fighter-bombers delivered this year, analysis suggests. The extras — for items such as software upgrades, spare parts and “cost reduction initiatives” — are buried in US defence contracts and have not been included in the published figures.

Military insiders have told of fears about the aircraft, which continues to suffer setbacks described by one former senior officer as “utterly pathetic”. Britain is buying the more costly F-35-B model, which is designed to take off and land vertically. US documents reveal that four already purchased are too heavy to perform this function safely.

This must read article is here! 

Hmm.  I wonder.  What happens when the US and foreign militaries are left with a stark decision.  After more than almost two decades of work, what if they just can't make the damn thing work?  

Has it reached a point where military leaders worldwide would rather continue the lie than to tell the truth to themselves, their govts and their people? Would they actually risk the security of their nations just to save face? Am I wrong to wonder after all we've seen?

ADD - KFX Stealth Fighter AESA Radar Combat Simulation

Hard to believe that just 25 or so years ago, AESA radar was a boutique and unique item that many in the US believed wouldn't spread far and wide.

Fast forward to today?

It's everywhere.  Air, sea and even ground based AESA arrays have changed everything when it comes to aerial warfare.  Detection ranges are longer and we haven't kept pace when it comes to missile development.  Additionally it seems that "frontal stealth" has been trumped.

Doesn't it seem like a consensus has been reached on stealth?  Partial stealth seems to be the wave of the future (and honestly the F-35 should be classed as such)...the Russians, Chinese and even S. Koreans are headed in that direction.  Japan looks set to MAYBE introduce a full stealth airplane along the lines of an F-22 type beast but we're still waiting.

AESA.  Unique at one time but not anymore.

Must read from Sic Semper Tyrannis. Combined Arms Forces, not Special Ops are the key to future battlefields...

via SST.

Last week, Colonel Lang referred to an article by David Ignatius “in which he [Ignatius] made reference to a RAND study in which the author tries to make the case that SOF forces (Green Berets, Rangers, Delta, SEALS, and other cats and dogs) are the key to success in warfare in the future.” I just want to elaborate on the colonel’s comments. The RAND study is written by Linda Robinson, a senior international policy analyst at RAND who, in addition to numerous articles, has written a couple of books about Special Forces and our special operations forces: “Masters of Chaos” in 2005 and “One Hundred Victories:  Special Ops and the Future of ” in 2013. I have not read either book and probably won’t. I did read her latest article which Ignatius referred to. Her article, “SOF’s Evolving Role: Warfare “By, With and Through” Local Forces”  does contribute to a misguided idea that SOF, rather than conventional forces, is the answer to future wars. I say “contributes to” because I think Robinson’s understanding of the problem and proposed solution is more nuanced than that, but she still doesn’t seem to accept the centrality of combined arms forces in future wars. This view is apparently shared by Ignatius and even General Votel at CENTCOM.

In the crudest sense, this view stems from the overblown publicity that has surrounded years of night raids by the door kickers of Delta, the SEALs and Rangers. Not only do these high speed, low drag operations sell books, but they have influenced a generation of commanders, think tankers and Pentagon bureaucrats to put their faith in SOF.

Story here. 

This is beyond wild.  First I've been beating on the drum that SOCOM seemed to be drunk on their own publicity.  Do you remember this video of McRaven telling an old skool Special Forces General to basically shut up when he told him to get his people out of the news (at the 3:16 mark)?



For better or worse both the Bush Jr and Obama admin over used SOCOM and their leadership did nothing to stop it.  Even worse were all the tell all books and movies that were made about their exploits....quiet professionals it seems was (at the time) a thing of the past

Second, I find it funny that a reporter would write such an article. This isn't Ignatius usual beat either.  He is a Washington insider so I have to wonder out loud if this story wasn't planted by either a Think Tank pushing their latest agenda or even SOCOM itself in a budget play.

Last, I'm pleased that the Army is making moves to revitalize its combined arms teams.  Everyone knows but no one is saying aloud the two things that make the raid, raid and only raids mentality dangerous.  Terrorist organizations especially in the Middle East are looking more and more like nation state armies.  As a matter of fact when ISIS started its offensive it routed the Iraqi Army and took their gear making them more than a guerilla group...they actually became a threat to their nation from the start. Which brings me to the last uncomfortable truth.  Special Operations are vulnerable to conventional forces.  It's in every manual I've ever read.    If its changed then I'd like to know the rationale but history is littered with Special Ops going up against conventional formations and getting mauled.

We've reached a point where we must protect the military from itself...or at least the Think Tanks, Reporters pushing an agenda and Leadership looking for a quick fix.

The never quit attitude and the accept any mission stance is going to get good people killed unless someone with a bit of moral courage assumes control.

Sci-Fi Monday....The U.S. Navy launches the first Enterprise into Space.

Wow.  A whole bunch of nice touches on this kitbash between Star Trek Voyager, Star Trek, and the new Star Trek Movies.  Awesome how he integrated a couple of "Navy" items too.  Were those dual railguns on the front?  I assume turreted lasers?  The weirdest and coolest part was the SH-60 on the fantail/shuttle docking area!

This puppy is sweet!

NOTE!!!!  This dudes website is here (Pure awesomeness!)....oh and you're welcome.  Pics and vid are from his site.

Open Comment Post. July 17, 2017

Project A223 ampibious landing craft - Russia

Thanks to Overwatch DVA for the link!

French Army - Leclerc Main Battle Tank Capabilities

Chinese J-10C spotted carrying 5th Generation Missiles...

Pic and story via Chinese Military Review (here).

Head over to CMR to read his take on these missiles but they appear to be much larger than the missiles they're replacing.

Isn't it interesting?  The US hasn't developed a new air to air missile in a few decades.  Admittedly it's done a few upgrades of the AIM-120 but I wonder if that's gonna be enough.

Could placing all our eggs in the stealth basket come back to haunt us? Will advances in missiles, AESA, and electronic warfare end up making that one advantage irrelevant?  The US Navy seems to think so.  If they're right then the USAF and USMC are screwed...not to mention the nation.

Houthi forces crush Saudi-led offensive in northern Yemen

via almasdarnews.com

The Saudi-backed Hadi loyalist launched an offensive inside the Al-Jawf Governorate of northern Yemen, Saturdy, targeting the Houthi positions the Anbara Mountains near the KSA’s border.

Despite air support from Saudi jets, the Hadi loyalists were unable to make any headway in the Anbara Mountains, Saturday, as their forces ended up losing several combatants as a result of this attack.

According to Houthi media, their forces managed to destroy several armored vehicles during the massive retreat by the Hadi loyalists.

The Saudi-backed forces have repeatedly attempted to bypass the Houthi defenses in this region; however, they have failed every time.

Wow.

Between this and the issue with the Qatar, Saudi Arabia is having a real bad time of it lately.

Mountains.  As bad as cities are for modern forces I believe mountains might be worse.

The Royal Marines have the right concept and we need to build on it. Mountain Leaders/Arctic Specialist are a nice start.  Every Marine Regiment should have on-call a Mountain Leader,  Jungle Expert, Urban Operations Specialist, HA/DR Coordinator etc....I imagine that's the job of the Marine Gunner but they're unicorns.  They're rumored to exist but few have seen them (well until Gunner Wade started putting up videos).

That future fight is gonna be one for the ages.  What we've seen in the desert for the last decade plus has been a sad warm up for what's coming next.