Monday, September 11, 2017

N. Korean regime collapse/instability could see PLA forces at the Yalu River in 10 days?

Thanks to Ogden for the link!

Via China Defence Blog
Winter is here. In addition to cold political rhetoric, the world also witnessed the power of Little-phat Night King’s fully operational Intercontinental Ballistic Dragon (ICBD).  It is now up to the PLA to mount a possible offensive defense.

In the following weeks,  this blog will start posting more Northern China (especially on the Northern Theater Command) centric updates.   Hopefully it will feature insight into the military options available to the King in Beijing.   One thing's for certain, the PLA can expect no Lannister army marching shoulder-shoulder with them -- Cersei tweets loud-and big but all she ever wanted is to build a wall facing the south (too late, no?).  Joking aside, the 28,500 strong Lannister army can’t mount a “boots on the ground” across the DMZ without completing an prolonged air campaign first.

A note to the King in Beijing, A Lannister always pays his debts.  It stands at $1.15 trillion in Aug 2017 and counting.

RRU -- the King in Beijing can count on 2 brigades of PLAN Marine (the third brigade is far from battle-ready), up to 9 airborne brigades and dozens of SpOs units.  Given China's advanced transportation networks coupled with their high-readiness rate,  majority of those RRU could reach the Yalu River delta area within 10 days.  This rapid troop movement capacity has been demonstrated during rescue phase of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake.9 years ago.  An assessment of PLA's response to the 2008 earthquake is here.   However, RRU are essentially light infantry units -- albeit well-trained -- with limited light direct and in-direct armor and fire support.  They also lack heavy artillery and engineering assets to overcome fortified defensive positions and mountainous terraindotted across the entire area-of-operations.  They should know, they were there during the 1950s.

Furthermore, unlike their Western counterparts, close tactical air support is still an luxury item few units have access to. Therefore, those RRU will not advance without support from local "heavies".   But if they do, they will be "all in". 
Story here. 

I do recognize the tongue in cheek part of this article.  I'm sure its funny as hell and I'm just missing the joke because I'm not properly socialized.

But ignoring the statements referring to (he used the pic from the Game Of Thrones...and "king" I assume refers to Chinese history) current TV shows and past history the readiness levels of the Chinese Marines and Airborne Forces is noteworthy.

I await more details, but it is apparent from this telling that the Chinese are at this time capable of taking Taiwan (if this is correct).

If this is true then the calculations have changed.  I thought we had till 2020 for the Chinese to be ready to make a move on Taiwan.  They're ahead of my estimates that are waaaay ahead of published estimates from our intel agencies.

This is...interesting.

Are we in worse trouble in the Pacific than I thought?

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