ACV numbers will likely be NORTH of 700!

via Shepard Media.

The USMC is working to consolidate the previously-separate Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) 1.1 and 1.2 programmes into a single ACV programme effort.

Current activities follow recent approval of the consolidation plan by James Geurts, Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition and Navy Acquisition Executive.

According to service representatives, the original ACV strategy had included a ‘pre-1.2 decision point’ to determine whether the service would continue with current design or develop a separate design focused on things like high water speed.

They noted that primary service interest was in validating the water capabilities of the 1.1 design, with ‘the big difference between 1.1 and 1.2 being the requirement to be able to swim from ship to shore and back’. However, they quickly asserted that the desired swim capability has been proven out on the 1.1 design.

While the purchase of 204 vehicles under the 1.1 programme is still in place, the US Marine Corps is now working to combine it with the second portion of the effort, which was originally referred to as ACV 1.2, into a single ACV programme.

‘Once the requirements community verified that we were where we need to be, we went to the acquisition authority to request permission to merge things into one programme’, sources told Shephard.

The new terminology focuses on ‘ACVs’ and ‘mission role variants’. The initial focus is on the ‘personnel’ mission role variant with the first 204 vehicles being all personnel designs, as well as the next ‘400 plus’ in the consolidated programme. Additional mission role variants will be command and control, a weapons platform, and a recovery variant.

While potential designs for both command and control and weapons variants have been mocked up and displayed at the Modern Day Marine Expo aboard Marine Corps Base Quantico over the last two years, discussions surrounding an ACV recovery variant are still in the early stages.

Sources close to the programme indicated that the service will soon release RfIs to help determine ‘the art of the possible’ for the other variants.

Acknowledging that the mission role variants ‘will have an impact’ on overall acquisition numbers, they offered the likelihood that the planned total now stands ‘at the north side of 700 plus vehicles’.

Meanwhile, the next step in the consolidation process will require the USMC to get approval from Congress to merge the two separate budget lines into a single line, most likely in FY20. That process is expected to take place in the next few months.

Wow.

We're inching toward a 1 for 1 replacement of the AAV.  Interesting and something to make you lean back in your chair.  Wheels vs Tracks.  We've been told over and over that wheels have caught up, yet I still wonder.

Time will tell but the Marine Corps is committed and the vehicle looks solid. Let's hope it works as advertised.

 

You want that big city fight? Remember Hue City...

It mystifies me but there are some that still argue the big city fight is a MUST in the future.

I think those that believe that should be tested for illegal drugs or mental illness.

Check out the pic above.  Hue City was a meat grinder and it was comparatively tiny.  An instructive example of what REALLY awaits forces that decide to go into a large city is found in the fight for Stalingrad.  Check this out from Wikipedia...

After 27 September, much of the fighting in the city shifted north to the industrial district. Having slowly advanced over 10 days against strong Soviet resistance, the 51st Army Corps was finally in front of the three giant factories of Stalingrad: the Red October Steel Factory, the Barrikady Arms Factory and Stalingrad Tractor Factory. It took a few more days for them to prepare for the most savage offensive of all, which was unleashed on 14 October with a concentration of gunfire never seen before.[67] Exceptionally intense shelling and bombing paved the way for the first German assault groups. The main attack (led by the 14th Panzer and 305th Infantry Divisions) attacked towards the tractor factory, while another assault led by the 24th Panzer Division hit to the south of the giant plant.[68]

The German onslaught crushed the 37th Guards Rifle Division and in the afternoon the forward assault group reached the tractor factory before arriving at the Volga River, splitting the 62nd Army into two.[69]

Fighting raged inside the Barrikady Factory until the end of October.[70] The Soviet-controlled area shrunk down to a few strips of land along the western bank of the Volga, and in November the fighting concentrated around what Soviet newspapers referred to as "Lyudnikov's Island", a small patch of ground behind the Barrikady Factory where the remnants of Colonel Ivan Lyudnikov's 138th Division resisted all ferocious assaults thrown by the Germans and became a symbol of the stout Soviet defense of Stalingrad.[71]

An Army Corps on the attack.

A tank and infantry division on the attack.  Another tank division conducts a flanking maneuver.

A rifle division crushed and an ARMY split in two!

Finally a division pushed to the banks of a river holding on for dear life.

And you're gonna send some battalions or brigades into a city and don't think they're gonna get gobbled up and spit out like chewed up bubble gum?

I contend that you'll have units that totally disappear never to be seen again. Even worse is that we've seen modern day examples on a small scale that should give people pause.  Marawi anyone? Read the Wikipedia entry here but make no mistake.  This was a 5 month battle over a SMALL city.  You had practically every power in the region to include the US, Russia, China, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia....even Israel supplied assistance arrayed against a terrorist group that is estimated to number around 1000 fighters!

Yet you still think a big city fight is not only doable but a MUST do?

I laid it out quick and dirty.  If you can't wrap your head around it then I can't help ya.

Sidenote.  I talked to a Marine that fought in Fallujah.  From what I've been told the American people will NEVER be told how wild and wooly that fight was.  I asked about pics of the fighting and it was as I expected.  The Marines on the trigger were much too busy staying alive to snap polaroids.  Combat Camera is rumored to have had many of their pics embargoed, classified and probably filed away for release after we're all long dead. A small reminder of what your Marines went thru to liberate that piece of shit city in that fucked beyond recognition country.

Sorry.

But if you believe a city fight is worth it (especially if it isn't an American city or one of our CLOSE allies) then we part ways. 

AV-8B Harrier II's down low...via Squadron Prints Twitter Page...

4th Battalion, 68th Armor (Airborne) trains @ Camp Atterbury....pics by Spc. Joshua Syberg

ACV @ Marine Expo West...pic by Lance Cpl. Drake Nickels

One question.  Does anyone know why it has all those antennas?  I thought they were still developing the command version so if this is the standard then why?

Marine Air-Ground Task Force-6 (MAGTF-6) on exercise at the Regimental Assault Course (RAC) @ 29 Palms...pics by Lance Cpl. Nathaniel Q. Hamilton

Open Comment Post. 08 Feb 2019

SU-57. Threat to Western Air Power or Flawed Beyond Recognition?

Everyone has an opinion on everything.  The purpose of this post isn't to change your mind but to give you an inkling into my thinking of the SU-57.

Some think that it's a threat to Western Air Power while others believe its flawed beyond recognition.

I'll let the aviation bubbas on the page duke it out on the technical details but I think we should step back and think about how it fits into the Russian battle plan, their observations of our own stealth programs and how they view their own needs.

1.  I think the Russians have followed US stealth development closely.  They've watched the development and employment of the F-22, F-35 and B-2. While they're probably impressed by the technical achievement I believe they're stunned by the cost.  That plays a role in how the SU-57 came to be.

2.  I surmise that the Russians decided they needed a follow on to the SU-27 family of planes.  They wanted an evolutionary advance but decided not to stomach the cost of full blown stealth.  Remember this.  In Europe they stand basically alone.  If the unthinkable actually happened then numbers would count.  An all stealth air force would be (from their observations) crazy expensive and couldn't provide the utility they needed.  Good enough is good enough for their forces plus numbers always count.

3.  I also believe that the Russians are not sold on the longevity of stealth as we're currently pursuing it.  We know that they've dabbled in plasma stealth, they're pushing hard in the field of electronic warfare and they have excellent, world class anti-aircraft missiles.

You add all that together and the SU-57 is as it was designed to be.  A follow on to the SU-27 family of jets with a moderate degree of stealth characteristics to make it formidable while retaining classic fighter performance.  It flies high, fast and far.  Just like the SU-27 we can expect it to flex into a ground attack role and naval strike is probably going to be part of its playbook into the future.

Was it ever designed to be a F-22 or F-35 killer?  Yeah in the same way the SU-35 is designed to be an F-22 or F-35 killer.  Is it designed to be the ultimate stealth fighter?  No.  It's got limited stealth but for the Russian application I believe its good enough.

The real problem for the SU-57?  The Su-35 is good.  Real good.  Considering Russian missiles it can handle any standard Western fighter and probably the F-35 too.

As for the Russian way of war with regard to the SU-57 (or even the SU-35) we can expect them to go after our air tankers first.  The F-35 is still short legged.  KS-172's will probably fill the air.  For all the talk of the F-35 playing quarterback for attacking forces I still believe that AWACS will also be on the menu.

While the Pentagon is working hard to clear the kinks out of the F-35 I'd bet body parts I highly value that the Russians are working hard on improving their IRST systems to get increased clarity.  Being undetected will be harder and harder for stealth aircraft that are dogging IRST instead of radar returns.

Additionally it's gonna happen.  Someone will develop a long range infrared missile.  Don't know how it will work but I'm betting that the range at which AIM-120's are launched will be equaled by someone's long range infrared missile.

All of the above is simply a few musing I put together and the aviation guys can tell me how far off I am, but my guess is that the SU-57 is neither good nor bad.  It's simply the evolution of the SU-27 family and is what the Russians need for their next jet...assuming they don't scrap it all together and head down a different path because what they have will get the job done in their eyes.

Russian Paratrooper Cold Weather Training...

Pic of the day. "Sandstorm" by Sergeant-Major Hille

These things are like Imperial Walkers.  You can see them far off but they're going alot faster than you think.  If you don't get under cover with a quickness you're gonna be sandblasted!

Protests in France continue. Get eyeballs on this, we're seeing a modern European nation on the brink of revolution!

Grande sciopero generale ieri in Francia.

Manifestanti barbaramente assaliti dalla polizia di Macron. Avete visto una riga da qualche parte? pic.twitter.com/VhsmntcBnX

— lantidiplomatico.it (@Lantidiplomatic) February 6, 2019

I know.  Alot of you believe that protests are as common in France as spring showers in April but trust me. THIS IS DIFFERENT!  I have never seen the security forces come out in such force and use such tactics before (that includes the annual car burning on the outskirts of Paris).

I have never seen the average citizen involved in what the state is now labeling illegal behavior.

We're not seeing hooligans.  We're seeing average citizens hookin' and jabbin' with security forces.

We're seeing a modern European nation on the brink of revolution!  My guess is that sooner rather than later, the powers that be will demand that Macron step down "for the good of the nation".  The new pick to lead will repeal the new taxes that caused this and the hope will be that they'll be able to get back to business as usual.

What I wonder is how much longer Macron has.  Maybe till early March to either get this thing settled or step down?  Maybe later?  I have no idea.

1st Infantry Division has a brigade doing work in Poland...the Army is getting serious about Europe.

I don't even know how to pronounce the Polish website but you can check out additional pics here.

Serious question.  Did anyone else hear about 3.5 K American troops being deployed to Poland?  I know I didn't.  It would appear that the US is bound and determined (along with our Polish allies) to have a sizable force stationed in that country permanently.  I wonder how Germany will feel about this move. For better or worse they are losing their grip as "the defenders of Europe" and that mantle is being taken over by the Poles.

The only thing left to do that will seal the realignment is for the Brits to send at least a Battalion to Poland.  If the Brits did that and maintain relations with the Nordic states then Germany is froze out.  Bring on a European Army 'cause no one will care.  The new Nato alignment will hold sway and still call the shots.

'Small footprint, long arm' appears to be new US way of war...but it didn't work before so why will it work now?

via The Hill

The United States is trying to wrap up two major conflicts this year — the war in Afghanistan and the war in Syria against ISIS. At the same time, America forces are still operating globally against threats and to assist allies in defeating terrorist groups. In the second half of January, two U.S. airstrikes in Somalia killed 76 suspected al-Shabaab militants. This appears to point to a crossroads in the U.S. role. While troops may be coming home from major war zones, U.S. involvement in conflicts apparently will shift to focus on precision airstrikes and intelligence gathering.

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Jan. 29 that ISIS has lost “99.5 percent plus” of its territory in Syria and Iraq. President Trump added on Feb. 1 that ISIS soon would be “destroyed 100 percent,”  but he warned, “We will be watching them closely.” This dovetails with comments he made the day after Christmas to troops at al-Asad base in Iraq — that the United States will not be nation-building in Syria, but its forces will “always watch very closely over any potential reformation of ISIS.” To ensure the defeat of ISIS, the U.S.-led coalition launched 645 strikes on ISIS targets in Syria in the last two weeks of January, among the most since August 2014.

As the United States withdraws from Syria, the administration is negotiating with the Taliban to end the U.S. role in Afghanistan. Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, has been holding talks in Qatar that he says have been “more productive” than in the past. A former ambassador to Afghanistan under President George W. Bush, Khalilzad knows well the challenge. After 18 years, the United States is aiming for eventual troop withdrawal; Trump is adamant that “endless wars” must end.

Critics of the administration point to the U.S. intelligence community’s new Worldwide Threat Assessment as a reason to be pessimistic that these wars will end. The inspector general’s quarterly report at the Department of Defense also is expected to highlight continuing ISIS threats in Iraq and Syria. The map of these threats shows ISIS and other groups, such as al Qaeda, are active across a belt of land stretching from the Sahel in Africa to the Philippines, where ISIS took credit for bombing a church on Jan. 27 that killed 20.

So how does the United States withdraw and yet keep fighting? The answer lies in the concept of “small footprint, long arm.” Having a “long arm” in war-fighting has meant using long-range weapons and tactics, from artillery to air power, or inserting special forces far from home. The “footprint” is the size of the forces involved, the “boots on the ground.”

This essentially is what the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has been doing since 9/11. In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee in May 2017, SOCOM Commander Gen. Raymond Thomas said the United States was operating in more than 80 countries, with 8,000 forces deployed. A year later, the United States was operating in 90 countries, with a $13.6 billion budget that is 10 percent higher than in 2018, but with a relatively small footprint on the ground. Each troop deployed is considered a “force multiplier,” advising and assisting locals to defeat adversaries.

Modern war-fighting has transformed from heavy conventional military operations, with brigades and divisions, to smaller units, drones and the use of technology to track and monitor enemies. For example, a satellite image of battles around the last ISIS enclave of Hajin, Syria, in January showed six U.S. Reaper drones and three Beechcraft surveillance planes. An online community that uses open source tracking software of airplane transponders identified other intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft over Syria and northern Iraq.

It appears that U.S. strategy going forward will concentrate on fighting wars using this kind of technology. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley warned in 2017, at the National Press Club, that wars can’t be won by special forces: “They can do raids, they can train other countries; there’s a lot of other things they can do. Winning a war by themselves is not one of their tasks.”

For now, the Trump administration wants the United States to stop taking the lead and instead play a role that caters to its strength in the air and with precision-guided weapons. Local forces will have to do more of the fighting, from Niger to Somalia.

I love the overall concept but we tried that and it doesn't work so why will it work now?

First.  Local insurgencies can only be put down by local forces.  If it evolves into full scale combat then a negotiated settlement is the only solution while we prop up the "favored" govt, but make no mistake, the US has shown itself incapable of winning this type of fight.

Second.  We tried handing off to SOCOM and using airpower to back them up. SOCOM didn't and probably can't deliver on the promise of being "war winning".  They can make splashy headlines but they are and will always be a supporting force.  As soon as conventional forces left the theater SOCOM was practically begging for them to come back in.  That should be telling.

Last.  Airpower is like SOCOM.  They can make headlines but they aren't decisive.  It takes boots on the ground.

So what is this really?  Its a fig leaf to keep the interventionist at bay while we pull out of these never ending, expensive and fruitless fights.

Royal Netherlands Marine Corps gets its Anaconda Vehicle for the Dutch Antilles...

via Janes.

The Royal Netherlands Marine Corps (RNMC) is receiving 46 Dutch Military Vehicles (DMVs) Anaconda all-terrain vehicles the week of 4 February for its forces in the Dutch Antilles, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 31 January.

The first 36 vehicles arrived in Willemstad, Curaçao, on 31 January, to be followed by the remaining 10 in February.

Based on the Iveco Daily 4×4, the 6-tonne Anaconda was specially developed for the RNMC, with a priority on mobility and disaster relief.

Bulgarian efforts to procure a new IFV face delays...

via Bulgarian Military.com

SOFIA, Bulgaria (BulgarianMilitary.com) – The most important project for the modernization of the Bulgarian armed forces, the one for the purchase of new armored vehicles, continues to be delayed after the latest MoD plans to send request for proposals (RFP) to potential bidders in January failed, and so the future of the project becomes more unclear, learned BulgarianMilitary.com.

On Wednesday (6th February), Bulgaria’s Defence Minister Krasimir Karakachanov said he expected this year to conclude the deals for the new fighters and patrol boats, but not for the armored vehicles that are needed to equip battalion battle groups as a NATO basic requirement to Bulgaria.

“Unfortunately, the Land Forces’ project is delayed and further efforts are needed if we want by the end of the year, it to be launched,” Karakachanov said.

Initially, the current government has forced the preparation process of the project, but according to various sources it has been again postponed due to a great interest in it.

In 2016, the then-commander of the Bulgarian Land Forces and current Chief of the Defence, Andrey Botsev, warned that within 4-5 years, they could remain only infantry.

The project envisages the acquisition of 150 armoured vehicles (90 combat and 60 special-purpose and support vehicles) at two stages, for three battalion-size battlegroups, as well as automated fire control system for a self-propelled mortar battery, the related communication and information systems, additional equipment (training and simulation equipment), personnel  training and documentation. The estimated cost is BGN 1.464 billion (with VAT).

Around the project there are very specific technical features that can predict the choice, such as the number of wheels, the ballistic protection level, weapons, etc. Namely, their determination slows down the procedure.

For a long time, the decision on the number of the wheels of the main armored vehicles has been a subject of heated disputes, but eventually the most expensive option was imposed – to be purchased 8×8 combat vehicles, but some of the specialized and auxiliary vehicles will be 6×6 and 4×4. Another problematic issue is related to the communication system.

There is also a requirement for some of the armored vehicles and their equipment to be manufactured and assembled in Bulgaria, so 20% of the project money to remain in local companies. This is one of the main problems, according to informed sources of Mediapool. The equipment that can be manufactured in our country is cheaper and moreover, to be engaged the Bulgarian business in the procedure, will lead to new interests and tensions.

Wow.  Has anyone done an estimate on how the "value added tax" affects European defense procurement?  Top line gear costs money but the VAT adds even more to that cost.  Why is it a thing?

Iran unveils a Super Heavy APC...

via Mehr News Agency.

Armored personnel carrier named ‘Kian 500’ was unveiled today, which is equipped with unique super-heavy armored carrier, according to  Commander of Iran’s Army Ground Forces Brigadier General Kioumars Heydari.

This super-heavy armored personnel carrier includes unique technical and operational features, such as a high-power engine (500 HP), 16-speed gearbox with a double clutch plate, 200-ton tugging power, a loading capacity of 60 tons, and a fueling tank at 900 liters capacity among others.

A mobile watch tower and border control was another notable achievement unveiled today, he said, adding, this site is equipped with land monitoring radar covering a 15km range.

The watch tower is equipped with sophisticated night-vision cameras with high resolution and also electro-optic system with laser rangefinder, Heydari added.

During the unveiling ceremony, a number of defense equipment was delivered to Army units after undergoing overhauling operations.

Moreover, a number of armored vehicles equipped with telecommunications shelters, manufactured by expert Iranian engineers, were handed over to the Army Force of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

I wonder if Iran has a requirement for its armored vehicle designer to smoke X amount of illegal drugs each day before they report to work!

Regardless I spent a bit of time looking for pics of this "thing" and came up empty.  Hopefully one of my readers can find them for us.  I can't wait to see this thing.

I'm not sure of much but I'm betting that you'd have Viper Pilots literally wetting themselves with excitement if they ever got one of these things in their sights!

Politics Talk. How do the anti-Trump Republicans make it back? What is their end game?

I've been musing about this for awhile now and I just can't put it together.

How do the anti-Trump Republicans make it back?  What is their end game?

They've been rejected by their base voters.  Their policies are unpopular.  They're aiding the opposition party but they don't have a home their. So what is their end game?

Is getting rid of Trump enough?  Let's assume that it is.  My question is then what?  Do they think that they'll be welcomed back into the party?  I'm not so sure.  They might continue to make the cocktail party circuit but beyond that I don't see a political future.  People like Kasich pop to mind in that regard. The guy wants to be president but I just don't see him being welcomed by the voters nationwide.  Same goes with Romney.

Could we see a split in the Republican party going into the future?  The globalist, deep state, interventionist wing against the small govt, anti-illegal alien, non-interventionist, fair trade-not free trade wing?

I'm just not sure but we'll see in 2020.

New Chinese 8×8 assault gun

via Janes.

Images have emerged showing what appears to be a new Chinese 8×8 assault gun equipped with a 105 mm main armament and a remote-controlled weapon station reportedly being trialed at what local media identified as the Baicheng Weapons Test Centre in northeastern China.

First released in late January by state-owned China Central Television (CCTV), the images show that the platform's chassis appears to be based on a new development of that used in the Type 09 (the export version of which is known as VN1) family of wheeled armoured vehicles supplied by China North Industries Corporation (Norinco).

In November 2018 an image had emerged on Chinese online forums showing the new chassis armed with a radar-directed 35 mm anti-aircraft cannon. The new chassis seems to be lower than that used by the VN1 armoured vehicle, although it features the same front-engine configuration. The lower height suggests that the new platform has a lower centre of gravity, thus providing more stability when equipped with heavy weapon systems.

No official information has yet to emerge about the designation, size, and performance of the new assault gun. That said, the CCTV images suggest that, given the small size of the 105 mm gun turret, the platform may use an auto-loading system for shells and gun-launched missiles. The assault gun chassis also makes generous use of externally mounted armour that could be upgraded when needed.

Hmm.  Don't think this is suppose to go after other armored vehicles (although I'm sure it could in a pinch).  I'm betting this is used in the old support tank role...or in British nomenclature an old Infantry tank.

Hopefully we'll see it on exercise to get a better view on how they see it fitting into their battle plans.

Open Comment Post. 07 Feb 2019

Thailand buys 41 Chinese VN1 Wheeled Armored Vehicles...

via Asia Pacific Defense Journal.

The Royal Thai Army (RTA) has requested for the acquisition of another batch of Chinese-built NORINCO VN1 8x8 wheeled armored vehicles, with the Thai Ministry of Defence expected to give a decision soon.

The total value of the proposal is expected to reach THB2.25 billion (US$72 million).

Based on documents sourced from the RTA's Ordnance Department, the total breakdown of the 41 vehicles being proposed are as follows:

·       3 units of VN1 armored personnel carriers (APC),
·       12 units of VN1 armored mortar carrier with a 120mm mortar system,
·       9 units of VS27 armored recovery vehicles,
·       12 units of VN1 armored command vehicles,
·       3 units of VN1 armored ambulance,
·       2 units of VN1 maintenance vehicles
·       associated simulator, logistics support, maintenance support equipment, ammunition

Thailand currently has an ongoing deal for a batch of 34 NORINCO VN1 vehicles ordered earlier at a cost of THB2.3 billion, and are expected to arrive within 2019.

It is expected that the VN1 fleet would replace the Cadillac Gage V150 Commando 4x4 armored vehicles in service with the RTA since the 1970s.

The NORINCO VN1 is also called the ZBL-08 in service with the China People's Liberation Army. It was also ordered by Argentina and Venezuela, aside from Thailand. China is also offering the VN1 to several other countries in Asia, Africa, and South America.

Thailand is getting ready for something.  I haven't been following closely but I have been watching and they're getting their armored force together.  Are they doing it smartly?  That's up for debate.  They have a weird mix of vehicles that might lead to maintenance/sustainment problems.  But time will tell.