Tuesday, March 10, 2020
This is how a worldwide depression starts...Italy is now a restricted zone...
BREAKING!#Italy's PM #Conte announces the restriction zone will be extended to cover the whole country.#Coronavirus— Enrico Ivanov ☦️ (@Russ_Warrior) March 9, 2020
This is beyond troubling. Do you sit back and laugh at Italy's plight? I wouldn't if I were you. They're taking proactive measures now to combat this pandemic.
I'm almost positive that if we had better testing inside the US, we'd see the number of cases almost quadruple overnight.
The good thing for Italy? They're an early adopter of preventive measures. They'll be one of the first European countries to get to the other side of this thing.
The bad thing for Italy? They'll take an economic hit now instead of later.
Everyone is hoping and praying that with the arrival of spring in a couple of weeks this wave will burn itself out.
The problem for the US? If it doesn't. If we see the numbers increase dramatically then you'll almost see the economy freeze.
This thing is hard. I'm glad I'm not making the call on what to do on this one. But it's also why they don't pay me the big bucks.
Tu-214R jammed Turk F-16 firing AMRAAMs at Syria aircraft over Idlib?
via Eurasian Times
The situation is complicated by the fact that attacks, as military experts note, are carried out by Turkish F-16s with long-range AIM-120 air-to-air missiles and the target is guided by a Boeing early warning and control reconnaissance aircraft 737 AEW&C of Turkish Air Force (equipped with electronic warfare, which includes the system of optoelectronic counteraction AN/AAQ-24 Nemesis).Story here.
It is important to note that Turkish F-16 fighter jets launched operations in Idlib without entering the Syrian airspace as Moscow had forewarned Ankara that it would not guarantee the safety of Turkish jets over Syrian airspace.The Russian and the Syrian Air Force were prepared for countermeasures and thus were able to able to dodge the AIM-120 missile, launched by the Turkish F-16. According to military experts taking to the EurAsian Times, the mission of jamming Turkish missiles was possible due to the Russian integrated reconnaissance aircraft Tu-214R.
Russia has significantly increased its EW forces in the region. With the assistance of Tu-214 and Il-22PP, which were not only able to detect the approaching Turkish F-16s but also warned Syrian fighters, ”writes the Chinese news portal Sina.
Wow. Seems like I missed a pretty compelling air battle. Definitely need to learn more about this Tu-214R...the AN/AAQ-24 and the 737 AEW&C. The fighters are usually the stars in aerial battle but looks like these airplanes (and electronic countermeasure?) played leading roles in this fight.
What the fuck did Marine Special Operations walk into in Iraq?
Just for context of how brutal this firefight was: the QRF unit sent in to retrieve the American dead was Delta Force. https://t.co/KnENSvGbwg— Thomas Gibbons-Neff (@Tmgneff) March 9, 2020
Jesus!
What did MARSOC walk into? A firefight that left two dead. The Quick Reaction Force was the US Army Delta Force?
Fighting in a well defended cave...having Delta Force as your QRF...a more than six hour fight to extract them....I can't even begin to imagine what these Marine and Army Special Operators were facing.
God bless the dead, the injured and the survivors of this fight.
Monday, March 09, 2020
Two headlines that should shock you about the economy...
Ok. Now my spider sense is blasting about the US economy. Check out these headlines...
Fed to step up cash injections for banks to guard against market pressure
The market has triggered a ‘circuit breaker’ that keeps stocks from falling through the floor. Here’s what you need to know
I need to chew on this and I need to check the history of 2008, but on the surface this appears ominous.
More to come I'm sure.
Fed to step up cash injections for banks to guard against market pressure
The market has triggered a ‘circuit breaker’ that keeps stocks from falling through the floor. Here’s what you need to know
I need to chew on this and I need to check the history of 2008, but on the surface this appears ominous.
More to come I'm sure.
Sometimes I forget how freaking powerful the F-15 really is...
This is how you depart an airport!!— Combat Learjet (@Combat_learjet) March 8, 2020
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••#Repost @big_seans_aviation
・・・
Straight up into the heavens #f15#f15eagle#kpdx#oregonang#oregonairguard pic.twitter.com/q827OACbIg
Special Forces Crisis Response Force scaled back ...
via SOFREP.
A move that foreshadowed the decision to disband the CRFs took place earlier this year. In January, the American embassy in Baghdad came under siege by Iraqi protesters and Iranian-back militias before and after the targeted killing of the Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani. However, Central Command (CENTCOM), the combatant command that is responsible for that Area of Operations, and Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT), a sub-unified command responsible for Special Operations in the same AOR, decided to deploy a Marine element instead of A Company, 1st Battalion, 5th Special Forces Group (A/1/5), the CRF unit responsible for the Middle East. The message was clear – we don’t need you.Here.
A senior CRF operator told SOFREP that “the CRF hasn’t been gainfully employed since the end of 2011, and other than that, the National Mission Force [Joint Special Operations Command] can get there just as fast. That’s why all of the other ones are on the chopping block.”
And there’s the rub. When you have Tier 1 Special Mission Units, such as Delta Force and SEAL Team 6, whose primary role is to respond to CT and HR scenarios across the world, CRFs feel somewhat redundant and a luxury. And manning and maintaining CRFs is far from cheap.
In addition to the standard Special Operations schools, all CRF operators have to go through the Special Forces Advanced Reconnaissance, Target Analysis, and Exploitation Techniques Course (SFARTAETC) and some through the Special Forces Sniper Course (SFSC), both of which last nine weeks. Much time and money, thus, is invested in a capability that isn’t being utilized.
As of the time of this publication, USASOC hasn’t commented.
I'm a fan of US Army Special Forces but I see the problem that exists for all of SOCOM.
If everyone is doing raids then no one is unique, and if you start encroaching on Seal Team 6/Delta Force missions then you're gonna get slapped down hard. Additionally the big bad has finally reared its ugly head. SOCOM ain't cheap.
The whole enterprise needs to determine what it offers going into the future or we'll see the CRF being cut back as just the start of massive cuts. Where do they fit in with regard to super power competition? Do they have a role to play in a major conventional war? Do they need the massive infrastructure that's been built up if overall numbers are reduced?
Lots of questions...few answers.
‘This Is 1929’: Hedge Fund Bear Warns of Great Depression-Style Stock Market Crash
NOTE!!! I'm just posting this because it caught my eye. From my layman's point of view the guy puts forth a pretty credible case. I'll let you decide whether or not he's close or wildly off the mark. One thing I do know. The FED caught me off guard with their emergency rate cut and it did nothing to stop the bears from trampling all over last years profit in the stock market. Now? Now we're looking at an oil crash. The problem from my chair? We're at least seeing the possibility of a repeat of 2008. Do you remember the basic problem? The velocity of money was slowing so dramatically that the economy was gonna seize up. One (more) last thing. Economist have been predicting a recession in 2020 since early last year. Just Google "are we looking at a recession" and you'll see tons of articles from last year, early this year.
via ccn.com
Crescat Capital says stock market valuations have soared to double their previous highs. And that a 1929-style crash could be looming. | Source: Everett Historical/Shutterstock.comHere.
Hedge fund bear Kevin Smith says that the coronavirus outbreak has triggered a stock market crash.
But forget 2008, Smith says this one could mirror the 1929 downturn that accompanied the Great Depression.
His firm, Crescat Capital, is hedging against the crash with its three-pronged “macro trade of the century.”
As the coronavirus outbreak rattles the Dow Jones, nervy investors are drawing parallels to the stock market crash that accompanied the 2008 financial crisis.
But one Wall Street bear warns that this equities bubble mirrors an even more terrifying downturn: the Great Depression.
Europe is getting rocked by the Coronavirus...how long before WHO declares the obvious?
#BREAKING Germany says coronavirus cases top 1,000 pic.twitter.com/QSOoGkgTXj— AFP news agency (@AFP) March 9, 2020
#Updated The tally of confirmed cases of #COVID19 in #Germany has risen to 1,112, local media quoted Robert Koch Institute. #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/lK30JgRmzg— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) March 9, 2020
WHO can quit delaying and declare this thing a pandemic. Wall Street and the rest of the world's markets are acting on this info.
Question.
Do you have a recession proof job? Do you have a job that is "essential"? If not you better start active planning for possible layoffs. If you do then you probably should do the same.
This is getting to a point that I didn't expect. I wonder how bad this first wave will be, cause I'm almost certain that there will be a second more lethal wave.
Did you know that there are two strains of this thing in the wild? Everyone is talking number of deaths but its more nuanced than that. What is the fatality rate for each of the strains?
If one or the other is responsible for the deaths that we're seeing then we could be looking at an extremely lethal vector.
Erdogan humiliated in Russia...
#Putin shows Erdogan who is the Boss. Makes him and his entire entourage wait outside the door. See the timer ticking 😂😂 @AirForceReviews @FriendsofPutin @PutinThe @peterpobjecky @need_history @DPRKJones @DoveSyriana @IdaratL @Leopard212 @VinodDX9 @su35thunder2 @JarritaLT pic.twitter.com/RqWwb8yNSG— Sukhoi Su-57 Felon 🇷🇺🇮🇳 (@I30mki) March 9, 2020
Amazing. Optics are important in diplomacy and the optics here are terrible for the Turkish leader.
How do you recover from something like this?
I bet his advance man is sentenced to jail for 10 years or more for not sniffing this out.
Sunday, March 08, 2020
Really XFL? Community spread of the coronavirus and you have an almost full stadium for a game?
This is why we will see the worst case scenario for the coronavirus. This time I think we can lay some of the blame at the feet of the federal govt. I can understand not wanting to incite a panic but damn it! Common sense precautions should be part of the response.
The NBA is discussing playing games without fans in the stands. The NCAA is talking about having the basketball tournament without fans in the stands.
So what does the XFL do this weekend?
They hold football games with people in the stands!
Even the Pope didn't do that for his Sunday address (note that it was at the request of the Italian govt).
Time for the experts to step up and prevent this thing from going sideways. I don't want a Chinese response but unless we're smarter then that's gonna be what we're left with.
A little pain now will save alot of pain later.
Coronavirus and Xi Jinping’s Many Failures
via Real Clear Defense.
While the coronavirus consumes the headlines, when we consider how China's leader handled the crisis, we can see larger pattern of behavior that reveals a consistent pattern of failure, whether in trade negotiations, decreased economic growth even before the COVID-19 outbreak, the global attention centered on the Muslim "re-education camps" in Xinjiang, to the suppression of democracy in Hong Kong and violation of its treaty commitments to the U.K. 2019 was a year of major failures for Xi's CCP.Here.
The result of this cumulative failures is that Xi's leadership is maladroit for the Chinese Communist Party and too reckless for China and the world. While these failures reflect poorly on Xi's rule, the miscarriages have two consequences for China's relationship with the rest of the world.
First, the failures are going to derail the image Xi's China seeks to convey to the Chinese people and to the world. The CCP under Xi has launched an ideological assault on the rest of the world via the "China Dream" strategic narrative. This is Xi's attempt to move China toward a confident and greatly elevated position can be seen in Xi's statements on the "China Dream," particularly its emphasis on "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" and developing "socialism with Chinese characteristics." The core of Xi's message is the belief that the Chinese model of global governance is superior to the status quo established by the West, particularly the Anglo-Americans at the end of World War II and in its aftermath.
Lovely. Many believe that the rise of China is inevitable but history shows us otherwise. China has rose and fell many times and I believe it will fall again. The question is whether or not we can contain it so that this time is like the past. It simply falls upon itself and doesn't consume the West along with it.
I believe we can IF WE'RE SMART. If we act in time. Love him or hate him but on this issue Trump is right. He fell short in his negotiations (stymied in his approach by business interest and so called foreign policy experts) but at least he tried.
The coronavirus might do what we failed to do. Italy has almost half their country on lockdown. We're headed to an outcome that will see major metropolitan areas brought to their knees.
This might prove to be painful but it will be illuminating to the business class. Just in time delivery and depending on China for manufacturing will finally prove to be unsustainable.
That's probably the one thing we can cheer about this trainwreck.
Norwegian F-35s intercepted Russian Tu-142 and Mig-31...anyone have more info on this incident?
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I'm intrigued. We know the Mig-31 can fly higher and is faster than the F-35. Additionally (and I could be wrong) the Mig-31 carries missiles that can fly farther and are again faster than the ones carried by the F-35.
The wild card in all this? How stealth would have played a role in the interceptor mission. Could the F-35 "sneak" up on the intruder aircraft? Would it have rendered Russian countermeasures null and void because of its stealth characteristics?
The article is light on facts but we do know the F-35 carried gear to make it illuminate on radar so maybe this is nothing but a propaganda show and nothing more. I just don't know.
Su-57 internal weapon bay compared to other 5th Gen Fighters around the World
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All these bays look like they're tailor made to a particular weapon type. Pylons will obviously have to be used for any advancement in missile tech that results in larger missiles than we have today.
From my chair that looks like a vulnerability that's been built into every "5th" gen fighter.
Coronavirus "best guess epidemiology" is grim as hell...
American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:— Seth Bannon 👨🔬 (@sethbannon) March 7, 2020
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths
vs flu in 2019:
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n
Not sure I buy these numbers. But if we assume them to be accurate then we will be knocked to our knees. Our healthcare system will break. Our economy will shatter. Hell we can practically predict with almost certainty that we (and the world) will be plunged into a great depression type scenario.
Politics Talk. The complaint by some women of sexism in the Dem contest is puzzling...
Women are calling bullsh*t on the American electorate after Elizabeth Warren’s campaign proved, yet again, that sexism is alive and well in U.S. politics pic.twitter.com/1PWU5mCbM7— NowThis (@nowthisnews) March 8, 2020
I don't understand this. I've been watching the Dem contest and this complaint by some women is just batshit crazy. No way Biden could have won big on Super Tues without the support of women. So if a majority of women supported either Biden or Sanders and not Warren then how is the electorate sexist?
This complaint doesn't seem valid yet I've heard it for the past week. WTF is going on in the news media????
British Police are fining people that submit to facial recognition cameras...
Welcome to the future...— paulusthewoodgnome (@woodgnomology) March 8, 2020
The Met Police set up live facial recognition cameras in east London. One passerby who didn't want to have his face scanned and so covered up his face was issued a £90 fine.#bbctbq pic.twitter.com/S7Lt6oMApV
Wow. Outside of China, the Brits have the most extensive surveillance system of their citizens in the world.
But what is the payoff for all this high tech spying? Mega information and still the inability to stop crime.
At the end of the day it just doesn't seem worth it.
Saturday, March 07, 2020
Every election year their is an outbreak?
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— Anna Ahronheim (@AAhronheim) March 7, 2020 |
Globalization is a prime mover of disease from impoverished areas (or that have unique diets) to the rest of us.
Scientists have said that we're overdue for a pandemic and if by some miracle from God we dodge the Coronavirus then it'll be a different big bad.
I'm starting to believe that this is gonna be our life for at least the next 20 years.
We're gonna get hit by a super bug...either from nature or man...but its coming.
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