Supposition.
There is more to the coronavirus than we're being told.
My lucid argument.
1. To say that the coronavirus is just a variation of the normal flu is blown out of the water by China's reaction to the outbreak. They went full bore and then some when this thing broke out.
2. The reaction of our allies. Italy has gone hog wild. Australia went hard and so are many of our other friends.
3. The reaction of our enemies. Did you catch what the leader of Iran had to say about the virus? He didn't point at just the US but also China. To paraphrase he said that its obvious that this disease was weaponized and unleashed upon the world. We still don't know how bad it is inside their country.
4. The NBA suspended their season. Don't see that happening unless they're being told the same. Remember this is a disease that is suppose to affect the old and those with pre-existing conditions.
There's ton more but I just don't feel like giving a complete tick tock.
Long story short?
We don't know all the facts but its clear that we're missing important and perhaps disturbing information about this virus. Not sure why the govts of the world would choose to leave us all in the dark but I believe that's happening.
What I find amazing?
This thing could actually freeze the global economy.
Worse?
I don't think there is a thing that anyone can do to stop global trade should that happen.
PS. The stock market is down almost 2000 points. We are seeing a return to sanity that might be the great "reset" that is talked about so much in the prepping community.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Russian Electronic Warfare Systems spotted in Donbas...
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Small irritation that doesn't rise to the level of a rant. Are we building a significant disability in our way of land warfare by our dependence on air systems to provide our electronic warfare capability?
Looking at what Russia is doing (I have limited visibility on Chinese efforts...if you know then educate the class) in the air and land, I can't help but feel we're behind.
Yeah I'm repeating myself but I can't get the story that I read about a Ukrainian Lt having to escape and evade back to his lines after his unit was located, apparently sizzled in an electronic attack and then bombarded into a unit that was totally destroyed if not in name then in function.
Does any Western power have properly developed ground based electronic warfare systems that can rival what we're seeing from the Russians or is it all based on our airpower?
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Textron delivers first next generation Ship to Shore Connector/Craft 100 to the US Navy...
Excited to announce we have delivered the first next-generation air cushion vehicle, Ship-to-Shore Connector (SSC), Craft 100 to the U.S. Navy! Learn more about this major milestone: https://t.co/ieGktexoD8#TextronSystems #PushingPastPossible #SSC #Craft100 #USNavy #Navy pic.twitter.com/J1NTfl88QT— Textron Systems (@TXTSystems) March 10, 2020
WHO declares a pandemic. About damn time!
via Washington Post.
The World Health Organization on Wednesday declared coronavirus a pandemic, reflecting concern from WHO that countries aren’t working quickly and aggressively enough to contain the virus.Here.
“We are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
The declaration came as the number of known novel coronavirus cases surpassed 120,000 worldwide. In the United States, where more than 30 people have been killed by the coronavirus, the total number of cases has doubled in a matter of days, surpassing 1,000 late Tuesday.
The White House is considering moving all of Europe to a Level 3 travel advisory, discouraging all nonessential travel to those regions, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
Depending on the severity of this thing, we could experience a society changing event.
Time will tell on that issue.
What I'm positive of is that the Director General will be vilified in history. This should have been declared weeks ago. Quite honestly in my opinion he chose money over lives.
My hope.
We take the pain now. Suffer the effects for a month while we do the hard thing and get to the other side of this thing by May.
That's my hope.
Normalcy Bias & The Coronavirus...
Small rant.
How many times have we discussed messaging, information influence campaigns and psychological operations aimed at the masses?
Yeah. Plenty of times.
Which leads me to this.
Why are so many here sticking their heads in the sands with regard to this outbreak?
It isn't obvious that this is a pandemic NOW? It isn't obvious that if this was simply a variation of the normal flu that this thing would actually be no big deal? That if it was an ordinary flu that we wouldn't see so many countries taking such drastic steps to combat it?
I mean seriously! Look at how China reacted to this! They practically shut down their country to fight this thing. S. Korea did the same. Now we're seeing the drama that Italy is going thru.
The reaction we're seeing from not one but several countries is a huge red flag to me. I'm assuming that they have better information than any of us and we're looking at 1st world nations employ draconian measures to attempt to prevent the spread.
Look at history! We didn't see this reaction to H1N1.
We didn't see the same reaction ANYWHERE.
I don't know what this thing is (I do have my suspicions and they haven't changed. I honestly believe that this isn't a result of wet markets but a tailor made virus that got loose from the Chinese) but the reaction from govts tell me that it isn't good.
So to those that claim that this virus is no big deal, explain why I'm wrong. Why all the govts of the world are wrong and why we're getting warned that schools will soon be closed, sporting events held without fans, and crowded events everywhere will be canceled (all of the above is already happening).
Yeah cowboy. Tell me how I'm fear mongering and this thing is nothing...otherwise I accuse you of having normalcy bias on steroids.
How many times have we discussed messaging, information influence campaigns and psychological operations aimed at the masses?
Yeah. Plenty of times.
Which leads me to this.
Why are so many here sticking their heads in the sands with regard to this outbreak?
It isn't obvious that this is a pandemic NOW? It isn't obvious that if this was simply a variation of the normal flu that this thing would actually be no big deal? That if it was an ordinary flu that we wouldn't see so many countries taking such drastic steps to combat it?
I mean seriously! Look at how China reacted to this! They practically shut down their country to fight this thing. S. Korea did the same. Now we're seeing the drama that Italy is going thru.
The reaction we're seeing from not one but several countries is a huge red flag to me. I'm assuming that they have better information than any of us and we're looking at 1st world nations employ draconian measures to attempt to prevent the spread.
Look at history! We didn't see this reaction to H1N1.
We didn't see the same reaction ANYWHERE.
I don't know what this thing is (I do have my suspicions and they haven't changed. I honestly believe that this isn't a result of wet markets but a tailor made virus that got loose from the Chinese) but the reaction from govts tell me that it isn't good.
So to those that claim that this virus is no big deal, explain why I'm wrong. Why all the govts of the world are wrong and why we're getting warned that schools will soon be closed, sporting events held without fans, and crowded events everywhere will be canceled (all of the above is already happening).
Yeah cowboy. Tell me how I'm fear mongering and this thing is nothing...otherwise I accuse you of having normalcy bias on steroids.
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Wait! Did this really happen in Syria? Turkey gave up territory?
— Andrew 🇸🇾 (@AndrewBritani) March 10, 2020
I'm just gonna leave this right here and wait for someone to confirm it. If true I can't wait to hear the explanation.
A Turk Military Twitter Account You Should Eyeball...
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Click on the Tweet and give this guy's page a look see. The US govt asked the Russians to be more forthcoming about their military and they've responded in spades (much to the annoyance of many...be careful what you wish for), but in the fight for Syria we're not getting many details on the Turk military or their operations (well except for our resident expert here...Alpay, you sometimes annoy but we luv ya).
This Twitter account might fill in some of the gaps on what they're doing and how they're doing it. I found it interesting anyway! Oh and besides discussion of the airbattle that I missed he also talks about the role of tanks in the fight for Idlib.
This war is something that will be studied for decades.
This is how a worldwide depression starts...Italy is now a restricted zone...
BREAKING!#Italy's PM #Conte announces the restriction zone will be extended to cover the whole country.#Coronavirus— Enrico Ivanov ☦️ (@Russ_Warrior) March 9, 2020
This is beyond troubling. Do you sit back and laugh at Italy's plight? I wouldn't if I were you. They're taking proactive measures now to combat this pandemic.
I'm almost positive that if we had better testing inside the US, we'd see the number of cases almost quadruple overnight.
The good thing for Italy? They're an early adopter of preventive measures. They'll be one of the first European countries to get to the other side of this thing.
The bad thing for Italy? They'll take an economic hit now instead of later.
Everyone is hoping and praying that with the arrival of spring in a couple of weeks this wave will burn itself out.
The problem for the US? If it doesn't. If we see the numbers increase dramatically then you'll almost see the economy freeze.
This thing is hard. I'm glad I'm not making the call on what to do on this one. But it's also why they don't pay me the big bucks.
Tu-214R jammed Turk F-16 firing AMRAAMs at Syria aircraft over Idlib?
via Eurasian Times
The situation is complicated by the fact that attacks, as military experts note, are carried out by Turkish F-16s with long-range AIM-120 air-to-air missiles and the target is guided by a Boeing early warning and control reconnaissance aircraft 737 AEW&C of Turkish Air Force (equipped with electronic warfare, which includes the system of optoelectronic counteraction AN/AAQ-24 Nemesis).Story here.
It is important to note that Turkish F-16 fighter jets launched operations in Idlib without entering the Syrian airspace as Moscow had forewarned Ankara that it would not guarantee the safety of Turkish jets over Syrian airspace.The Russian and the Syrian Air Force were prepared for countermeasures and thus were able to able to dodge the AIM-120 missile, launched by the Turkish F-16. According to military experts taking to the EurAsian Times, the mission of jamming Turkish missiles was possible due to the Russian integrated reconnaissance aircraft Tu-214R.
Russia has significantly increased its EW forces in the region. With the assistance of Tu-214 and Il-22PP, which were not only able to detect the approaching Turkish F-16s but also warned Syrian fighters, ”writes the Chinese news portal Sina.
Wow. Seems like I missed a pretty compelling air battle. Definitely need to learn more about this Tu-214R...the AN/AAQ-24 and the 737 AEW&C. The fighters are usually the stars in aerial battle but looks like these airplanes (and electronic countermeasure?) played leading roles in this fight.
What the fuck did Marine Special Operations walk into in Iraq?
Just for context of how brutal this firefight was: the QRF unit sent in to retrieve the American dead was Delta Force. https://t.co/KnENSvGbwg— Thomas Gibbons-Neff (@Tmgneff) March 9, 2020
Jesus!
What did MARSOC walk into? A firefight that left two dead. The Quick Reaction Force was the US Army Delta Force?
Fighting in a well defended cave...having Delta Force as your QRF...a more than six hour fight to extract them....I can't even begin to imagine what these Marine and Army Special Operators were facing.
God bless the dead, the injured and the survivors of this fight.
Monday, March 09, 2020
Two headlines that should shock you about the economy...
Ok. Now my spider sense is blasting about the US economy. Check out these headlines...
Fed to step up cash injections for banks to guard against market pressure
The market has triggered a ‘circuit breaker’ that keeps stocks from falling through the floor. Here’s what you need to know
I need to chew on this and I need to check the history of 2008, but on the surface this appears ominous.
More to come I'm sure.
Fed to step up cash injections for banks to guard against market pressure
The market has triggered a ‘circuit breaker’ that keeps stocks from falling through the floor. Here’s what you need to know
I need to chew on this and I need to check the history of 2008, but on the surface this appears ominous.
More to come I'm sure.
Sometimes I forget how freaking powerful the F-15 really is...
This is how you depart an airport!!— Combat Learjet (@Combat_learjet) March 8, 2020
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••#Repost @big_seans_aviation
・・・
Straight up into the heavens #f15#f15eagle#kpdx#oregonang#oregonairguard pic.twitter.com/q827OACbIg
Special Forces Crisis Response Force scaled back ...
via SOFREP.
A move that foreshadowed the decision to disband the CRFs took place earlier this year. In January, the American embassy in Baghdad came under siege by Iraqi protesters and Iranian-back militias before and after the targeted killing of the Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani. However, Central Command (CENTCOM), the combatant command that is responsible for that Area of Operations, and Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT), a sub-unified command responsible for Special Operations in the same AOR, decided to deploy a Marine element instead of A Company, 1st Battalion, 5th Special Forces Group (A/1/5), the CRF unit responsible for the Middle East. The message was clear – we don’t need you.Here.
A senior CRF operator told SOFREP that “the CRF hasn’t been gainfully employed since the end of 2011, and other than that, the National Mission Force [Joint Special Operations Command] can get there just as fast. That’s why all of the other ones are on the chopping block.”
And there’s the rub. When you have Tier 1 Special Mission Units, such as Delta Force and SEAL Team 6, whose primary role is to respond to CT and HR scenarios across the world, CRFs feel somewhat redundant and a luxury. And manning and maintaining CRFs is far from cheap.
In addition to the standard Special Operations schools, all CRF operators have to go through the Special Forces Advanced Reconnaissance, Target Analysis, and Exploitation Techniques Course (SFARTAETC) and some through the Special Forces Sniper Course (SFSC), both of which last nine weeks. Much time and money, thus, is invested in a capability that isn’t being utilized.
As of the time of this publication, USASOC hasn’t commented.
I'm a fan of US Army Special Forces but I see the problem that exists for all of SOCOM.
If everyone is doing raids then no one is unique, and if you start encroaching on Seal Team 6/Delta Force missions then you're gonna get slapped down hard. Additionally the big bad has finally reared its ugly head. SOCOM ain't cheap.
The whole enterprise needs to determine what it offers going into the future or we'll see the CRF being cut back as just the start of massive cuts. Where do they fit in with regard to super power competition? Do they have a role to play in a major conventional war? Do they need the massive infrastructure that's been built up if overall numbers are reduced?
Lots of questions...few answers.
‘This Is 1929’: Hedge Fund Bear Warns of Great Depression-Style Stock Market Crash
NOTE!!! I'm just posting this because it caught my eye. From my layman's point of view the guy puts forth a pretty credible case. I'll let you decide whether or not he's close or wildly off the mark. One thing I do know. The FED caught me off guard with their emergency rate cut and it did nothing to stop the bears from trampling all over last years profit in the stock market. Now? Now we're looking at an oil crash. The problem from my chair? We're at least seeing the possibility of a repeat of 2008. Do you remember the basic problem? The velocity of money was slowing so dramatically that the economy was gonna seize up. One (more) last thing. Economist have been predicting a recession in 2020 since early last year. Just Google "are we looking at a recession" and you'll see tons of articles from last year, early this year.
via ccn.com
Crescat Capital says stock market valuations have soared to double their previous highs. And that a 1929-style crash could be looming. | Source: Everett Historical/Shutterstock.comHere.
Hedge fund bear Kevin Smith says that the coronavirus outbreak has triggered a stock market crash.
But forget 2008, Smith says this one could mirror the 1929 downturn that accompanied the Great Depression.
His firm, Crescat Capital, is hedging against the crash with its three-pronged “macro trade of the century.”
As the coronavirus outbreak rattles the Dow Jones, nervy investors are drawing parallels to the stock market crash that accompanied the 2008 financial crisis.
But one Wall Street bear warns that this equities bubble mirrors an even more terrifying downturn: the Great Depression.
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