Monday, October 14, 2019
Assad and Russia rush to the aid of the Kurds...
#BREAKING:I had received unconfirmed reports that #Syria government is going to aid the Kurds in NE #Syria. It is now confirmed by this #SDF official an hour ago. In few hrs, #Assad will send troops to support #YPG/#Rojava/#SDF& prevent occupation of #Kobani, #Manbij & #Qamishli! pic.twitter.com/Dvx046r8eW— Babak Taghvaee (@BabakTaghvaee) October 13, 2019
Interesting.
Ya know what's a mind fuck? It could be argued that Russia is playing the traditional role of the United States in Syria.
HEAR ME OUT!!!! Don't go high and to the right .... let me explain.
What was the genesis of US Army Special Forces? Well check this out from GOArmy.com...
PRIMARY SPECIAL FORCES MISSIONS
Special Forces Soldiers are trained to perform several key missions -- each meant to be performed effectively and efficiently in a small-team operational structure.
COUNTERINSURGENCY
Special Forces Soldiers are often deployed to prevent terrorist and insurgent incidents abroad. They respond to terrorist activities and train other nations' militaries in the basics of fighting insurgents.
UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE
The cornerstone of Special Forces operations, unconventional warfare is activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla force in a denied area.
FOREIGN INTERNAL DEFENSE
Foreign Internal Defense is the act of training and equipping foreign allied military forces to defend against insurgency, subversion, terrorism and other security threats.
More here.
It's a simplistic stating of their missions but its the Army's recruiting site so simplicity is called for.
But back on task.
When communism was on the march during the 50's, 60's and 70's we saw the eventual creation and deployment of Special Forces to bolster friendly govts that were facing an onslaught of insurgents all over the world.
I imagine the thinking was along the lines of we send advisors and we don't have to send our conventional forces. The old "we train them to fight for themselves...we don't fight for them" kinda thing.
Now look at Syria.
Breaking that complicating, crazy, international gamesmanship down to its bare bones what are we actually looking at?
An insurgency that started in Iraq, spread to Syria and has taken almost a half decade (or is it longer) to contain.
In short.
The Russians rushed to aid the Syrian govt against an insurgency that cropped up to threaten it.
What confused the situation is that the US, a few European nations, Iraq and the Kurds (an insurgent force according to Turkey) rushed to contain that same insurgent force.
Other regional players entered the fray on the side of Syria (most notably Hezbollah and Iran) and suddenly you have the chaotic fight that we see today.
But do you get the force of connection here? In essence (and this is where you start hating my guts) we are moving against ISIS BUT TO BE HONEST they don't appear to be the main effort of our operations. The Syrian govt is.
So to use a tired analogy. Syria can in some ways be compared to Vietnam...a Vietnam in the desert. The difference (besides the obvious one, the terrain) is that where we were supporting the sovereign govt of S. Vietnam against the Viet Cong, Russia, China, and North Vietnam in this case Russia is defending the sovereign govt of Syria against ISIS, the US, some EU countries and at one time the Kurds.
Till now.
Now we see the Kurds rushing to Russia and Syria for protection. The reason is clear.
Turkey is curb stomping them.
The real winner is gonna be Syria with Russia a close second.
How will this play out?
Turkey can't afford to have the Syrians and Russians as a hostile force. The Russians don't want that either. So how do they "protect" the Kurds? A couple of things will happen.
1. Turkey will be given a buffer zone. Maybe 10 to 20 miles.
2. Turkey will be given assurances from the Russians and Syrians that they will control the Kurds and prevent cross border attacks.
3. The Kurds will be given an autonomous region under the control of the Syrian govt that they will administrate but will be answerable to Damascus.
4. You will see the Kurds happily accept this deal and they will ally with Syria/Russia to completely destroy ISIS within that country.
5. I hope I'm wrong but the US will be completely outfoxed. Putin will declare victory. Syria and even Turkey will fall even deeper into the Russian camp and those sanctions that were talked about will fade from view or have less punch than desired because sanctions have been used so much that I MUST BELIEVE a type of underground worldwide economy has been established to avoid them
Just my theory folks. Don't hate. DEBATE!!!
European investment in armored vehicles...
I'm just doing this off the top of my head and I could be totally wrong...but! Is it just my imagination or does the USMC's armored force compare favorably to what we're seeing from the Germans, the French and the Brits?Comparison of investment in new AFVs by France, Britain and Germany. France seems well organised to conduct expeditionary deployments. Britain and Germany just aren't doing enough, even before we start talking about artillery. pic.twitter.com/d7sIxJ3XcP— Nicholas Drummond (@nicholadrummond) October 13, 2019
I often look across the field (metaphorically) at all the armor possessed by the US Army and marvel.
But is that the right measuring stick?
Of course we're moving to new concepts but if we were to stick to the tried and true then you'd also have to add in naval aviation to our mix (or at the very least USMC Air) and suddenly that old Marine Air Ground Task Force begins to look damn near unbeatable.
Of course if we follow this rabbit hole down to the end then we have to start looking at roles/functions and consider what is the proper size of the Marine Corps (and every other service).
I don't know what the planners are foreseeing with a fight with China but I have to wonder if this is one time where staying the course makes more sense than radical change.
Time will tell and we'll be able to make a proper assessment when we get more details of the new Commandant's plan.
One thing concerns.
Remember when Amos was in the big chair and we were told that 1k mile raids via MV-22 were the future? Well we never got a look at the validation of those exercises and after actions on them never hit a professional journal.
This thing could be baked into the cake and the decision already made. Time will tell.
Sunday, October 13, 2019
Turkish Air Force bombed a civilian convoy (including journalists) which was under the protection of several SDF fighters. Many casualties reported
GRAPHIC: The Turkish Air Force bombed a civilian convoy (including journalists) which was under the protection of several SDF fighters. Many casualties reported https://t.co/MkEDmJRXEs— Syrian Civil War Map (@CivilWarMap) October 13, 2019
Turkey committing war crimes in Syria?
Pentagon chief says Turkey "appears to be" committing war crimes in northern Syria https://t.co/Kj0QmQu5Zj pic.twitter.com/yD99EflKYm— The Hill (@thehill) October 13, 2019
Hmmm. If you've been a reader of this blog then you know that a certain reader from Turkey will deny this news. You would also know that his view of the Kurds makes the thought of war crimes being committed against them seem well within the realm of possibilities.
The problem?
The source of this news.
We've been lied to so many times. Agendas are so transparent and clear that common sense tells you that a reason for continued occupation, participation and support of the Kurds is probably being pushed by various factions in the DoD.
My problem?
Everyone wants to default to the CURRENT status quo. The "brains" in the room want continued occupation in Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and now Saudi Arabia but have NO plan for us to extricate ourselves from the region.
The only real plan I've seen on the table is to continue to do more of the same.
The Special Ops AGMS (Pandur II 6x6) rolling around Syria...
One of the AGMS patrolling yesterday in Northern Syria. Pics by @Delilsouleman pic.twitter.com/yjygDygYNd— Abraxas Spa (@AbraxasSpa) October 13, 2019
I would luv to know the modifications that Special Ops have applied to these rigs to make them viable in that meat grinder known as Syria. On the surface it seems to be less than ideal.
At any moment you could be taken heavy machine gun fire. The threat of IEDs is real. Rocket propelled grenades and ATGM are passed out like candy in the region.
And that's what has me confused.
I just don't see the add-on armor, electronics to confuse or hardkill systems to defeat anti-tank missiles. I don't even see available sensor masts to help locate and illuminate enemy formations.
The only nod toward protection is the anti-IED device but without protection built into the frame via a V-hull I'm wondering if that's enough.
Special Ops have done clever modifications cause I just can't see'em.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
I-Phone freaks. Are you proud of how Apple bowed to Chinese govt demands?
via Gizmodo.
Apple CEO Tim Cook has explained why his company decided to succumb to China’s pressure and remove an app that was being used by Honk Kong pro-democracy protestors.Later in the same article....
Protesters had been using the HKmap.live app to monitor police movement based on crowdsourced inputs. Apple removed the app a few days ago, then reinstated it, then pulled it again on Wednesday, a day after People’s Daily, China’s state-run news platform published a piece that proposed Apple was complicit in “illegal acts” by helping the protestors “engage in more violence.”
Reuters reports that Cook defended the decision in a statement posted on an internal company site. “It is no secret that technology can be used for good or for ill. This case is no different,” Cook wrote, according to Reuters, which reviewed the letter.
The first allegation is that “the app was being used maliciously to target individual officers for violence”. This makes no sense at all. The app does not show the locations of individual officers at all. It shows general concentrations of police units, with a significant lag.Story here.
As the developer and @charlesmok, a Hong Kong legislator, have pointed out, the app aggregates reports from Telegram, Facebook and other sources. It beggars belief that a campaign to target individual officers would use a world-readable crowdsourcing format like this.
Moreover, what are these incidents where protesters have targeted individual police for a premeditated attack? Can Mr. Cook point to a single example? Can anyone?
First.
Apple is China's bitch. Full stop. It can't be denied. Additionally if you're using an Apple product then you're complicit in helping them be China's bitch.
Second.
Remember the part of our exporting our manufacturing to China that was suppose to lead to China being more open? More democratic? To provide new markets for American business?
That's failed. Spectacularly failed.
We didn't transform China. China transformed us.
This is why China will prevail against us...(UPDATED)
I'm old enough to remember when the Pentagon was drawing down in the Middle East to focus on China and Russia. https://t.co/8cWAt7eoQv— Aaron Mehta (@AaronMehta) October 11, 2019
Drink it in boys.
You're seeing the seeds of failure being sown right in front of your eyes.
We were suppose to pivot to the Pacific. We has supposedly recognized the threat that is China.
Yet we continue to engage in that tarbaby known as the Middle East.
What have we gotten for the last 20 years of our involvement?
* Lives of our fellow countrymen either lost or their bodies horribly mangled.
* Untold billions, maybe trillions of dollars wasted on foreign infrastructure, training forces that inevitably fail again and again, and those same foreign nationals begging for more of the same.
* Last but not least we've wasted our national strength, eroded faith in the military, in general lied to the American public and sullied our reputation as a warfighting force around the world.
We keep pumping resources into a failed project.
What makes a good business man? He knows when to stop sinking money into a project that will not provide a return on his investment.
We're far beyond that point with the Middle East. We're being bled slowly while our competitors gain ground.
When we lose to China you'll see historians point toward our failed efforts in the Middle East as one of many reasons why.
(Note. Reading some of the comments it appears that people are skipping over the part where I say this will "one" of reasons future historians will say we failed. You can add a whole host of other issues to the plate. Failed economic policy. Failed trade. Failed regulation of TERRIBLE business practice. Failure to solve our budget issues/deficit spending. Out of control focus on myriad social issues. Massive bloat in the Pentagon. Failed defense procurement. The list goes on...)
I had hope that we were finally getting our heads out of the ME sands and were finally going to get ready for the future.
I was wrong.
We're giving the Chinese perfect victory. Forget attacking us. Forget us keeping them bottled up in the Pacific. On the course we're on the Chinese will win without having to fire a shot. Assuming of course they already haven't (which is a big assumption given the behavior of our so called domestic corporations with regard to their behavior toward the Chinese govt lately....I wonder who they actually fear...the US or Chinese govt...if you said US then you should be drug tested).
Subscribe to:
Posts
(
Atom
)