Saturday, April 04, 2020

Could this be why the DoD sent forces toward SouthCom?



Two things are possible with this...

1.  We can see nation states collapse.

2.  We could see a massive run at the border.

Shit is about to get real in Central and South America.  We might see a couple of divisions sent to the border and a few more sent to help stabilize countries in the SouthCom's area of responsibility.

I've been so focused on the US and Europe that I didn't properly consider the drama facing our southern neighbors.

Venezuela?  Primed for an implosion.  Things could get dicey there quick...and then the floodgates will open. 

The Asian Flu Pandemic in '57 caused 100K deaths but no lockdown. Why now?



I'm just reacting to this tweet.  Haven't verified it.  But if true.  Then the question becomes.  Why the dramatic response to this outbreak. 

I will sound like a brute by saying this...but...we've only had 8k deaths so far (yes..I know...every death is someone's loved one and I seriously get that...I have family members in the vulnerable zone) but as a nation it's not a big hit.

The population affected was for the most part already suffering from some type of malady.  Whether diabetes, obesity, cancer, etc...they were already in a vulnerable state.

So if we could take a 100K hit in the late 50's and during the late 60's then why are these relatively few numbers so traumatizing?

Additionally what makes this outbreak so terrifying that we resorted to such extreme measures?

Trump (for all those that hate him...I don't...not love but definitely not hate) is right on this one.  WE MUST GET OUR ECONOMY GOING AGAIN!  Even now we've set ourselves up for a terrible time with the MASSIVE SPENDING that was just unleashed. 

I haven't read it anywhere but inflation beyond our recognition has to be coming down the pike soon.  Couple that with some insane unemployment if some businesses never re-open and we're already looking at a doomsday scenario economically.

Its not just us either.  It's every nation.

Have we just unknowingly lit the fuse for some dramatic shifts in the world as we know it?

Marine Commandant: Less A Second Land Army, More Light Amphib Ships

Another must read.  This time from Breaking Defense.  Same subject just a different perspective on what the Commandant said.  Questions.  If the Marine Corps is disbanding its Air-Ground Task Force (and it is for all practical purposes) then why do we need 3 Divisions?  Why do we need 3 MEFs?  With the reduction in size of the Infantry then we're gonna be running understrength Battalions.  You're gonna have alot of overhead for MUCH fewer Marines.  Additionally the Army has Infantry.  The Army has Missiles.  The Army has rotary aircraft.  If you take Berger's words to their logical conclusion then we're still not providing unique capabilities. Forcible entry is off the table.  Additionally you can practically scratch the idea of a MEU being able to be the "entry force" for follow on units.  Against a mechanized force we will be much too light to even think of holding ground.  We will be able to scoot with the best of them but dig in and hold on till the Army arrives?  That's off the table.  Quite honestly I'm really wondering why the ACV is continuing.  With his plan that vehicle makes no sense for the "new" Marine Corps.  Why is the AAV continuing?  And that's the point.  Those vehicles will be gone with phase II of this plan.

Berger isn't here to save the Corps.  He's here to kill it.

via Breaking Defense.
“We need to do less duplication of a second sort of land army and more to provide the nation unique capabilities that an amphibious and maritime and expeditionary crisis response force provides,” he said, meaning the Marines seven companies’ worth of M1 Abrams tanks are going to go away. “What we do not want to do was replicate what the Army is already very, very good at.”  
The Army is very good at fires.  With ATACMS they're very good at LONG RANGE FIRES.  As a matter of fact even with the increase of missile batteries the Army will still have more.  Oh and be advised.  The Army said that they were getting into the ship killing business!
It’s not only immensely heavy tanks that will disappear. Other legacy platforms like heavy- and medium-helicopter squadrons and towed artillery are also on the chopping block. In addition, the plan calls for eliminating law enforcement units, bridging companies, three infantry battalions, and anti-aircraft units.

While he has previously questioned the need for the Navy’s requirement of 38 amphibious ships to haul Marines across the globe, Berger has promoted the idea of a new class of light amphibious warships, lightly crewed, to get smaller groups of Marines to the fight ashore without being such large targets.
That's my point.  3 infantry battalions gone along with tanks?  You do realize that's almost a regiment of infantry right?  I guess the Marine Corps is gonna depend on the Army (again) for anti-aircraft help?
 One of the biggest surprises in the 10-year force assessment the Marines issued was the open questioning of the role the F-35 might play in the Corps’ future. It called for a change in how many planes are contained in each F-35 squad, from 16 to 10. Current plans call for the Marines to buy 353 of the F-35B and 67 of the F-35C carrier variants. It’s unclear whether this is the beginning of a smaller official plan to buy F-35Bs.

Berger affirmed this week that “there’s nothing like” the F-35 anywhere in the world, but he needs more information about the long-term costs of the plane’s readiness and maintainability.

“If the maintenance readiness of the F-35 proves to be very, very strong, then of course, like any other system you need less of them because more of them are up all the time,” he said, but, “on the other hand, if it turns out not to be so, then you’re going to need more of them, to account for the ones that are in repair, that are down right now.”
I'm not saying dude is lying and that's a batshit crazy statement, but either he's lying his ass off or he needs to get back on his meds.  In essence if the F-35 is great then he needs less of them.  If it sucks ass he needs more?  How the FUCK is he saying this kind of shit with a straight face!

I'm surprised Paul didn't laugh in the dudes face....or spit his coffee into his face for saying a whopper like that!

I'm glad I wasn't there cause this would have been my reaction....



This whole thing has annoyed me greatly but I've finally figured it out (at 4:48am).  They're slow walking this roll out.  This thing is probably so radical, so mind numbingly stupid (to people like me) that we'd recoil in horror and start writing our Congress Critters.

There is only one thing I'm certain of.  The old saying that there is no new Marine Corps or old Marine Corps there is only THE MARINE CORPS no longer applies.

Berger is making a clear distinction between old Corps and new.

Let's all hope they're getting it right and I'm spazzing for nothing.  If they screwed up (and it looks to me like they are) then YOUR kids will be filling body bags.  No way in hell I'd ever recommend this new monstrosity to a young man looking to serve his country.  Better the Army, Navy or god help me, the Air Force.  For the first time in my memory they seem like much better options.

Marines’ Force Design 2030 May Allow MEUs Tailored for Different Geographies, Adversaries

Note.  This is a must read article.  Check it out here.  I'm putting this at the top so I can be understood from the start.  I need to know more about this concept.  A recurring theme has developed at HQMC.  They make plans, start down roads but while they're in motion the refrain is that "we need to learn more".  It almost like I need to take Colonels and Generals back to phase 1 and teach them what BAMCIS means!

via USNI News.
Asked by USNI News what made him confident in EABO but not confident in the formations that would execute it, he said he had a fair understanding of what a Japan-based MEU or MLR might look like, but that California- and North Carolina-based Marines would need to craft their own kinds of units too to support EABO operations in the environments they’d most likely deploy to.

“I fully embrace the concept of Distributed Maritime Operations the way that the former CNO laid it out and the current CNO embraces it. I think that Littoral Operations in a Contested Environment is something that we have to embrace and be prepared to operate in. Within that, Expeditionary Advance Base Ops, EABO, is a method, is a technique, and it has proven so far in the wargames to be very effective – if you can pull it off. And it’s not easy to do,” Berger told USNI News during the media roundtable.
“So that concept, that method, that technique of EABO poses a number of challenges for an adversary: it complicates their ability to find you and to track you, complicates their ability to engage you, and it also reassures the partners and the allies that you’re trying to work with, because you’re very dispersed among them, you’re with them – not in a standoff mode, you’re in a stand-in mode.”

“So how does that tie in to where we’re not as confident in the construct of a MLR and what the MEU of the future ought to look like? First thing I would ask you to just take onboard with us is just, we are at the point where we’re learning. We are already convinced based on wargames and modeling so far that we have a fairly good idea of what an MLR in III MEF in Japan, based out of Japan and operating in the Pacific, could look like. We have a lot more to learn there and we may absolutely adjust the framework of that in the future. What we’re not as confident in is, what is II MEF in the East Coast, what is I MEF in the West Coast, what should they build? Do they have to be mirror image? Should they look exactly in the same template and the same model? And I’m of the mode at this stage in the learning, no. Our learning should be, what is the best construct that makes sense for their operating environments?” the commandant continued.
“Same with MEUs. We have had one framework, one construct for a MEU: all seven of them had to be mirror image for the last couple of decades because they were largely flowing to the Middle East to do a mission in Central Command. Going forward, what they were originally designed for, where they’re global, now we should have the latitude for a Marine Expeditionary Unit in one place may look different than another Marine Expeditionary Unit. So when I say less confident, what I’m trying to communicate is, A), they don’t have to all be mirror image, we should be able to tailor them to their operating environment, and B), we don’t want to create all looking one way and then undo that two years from now when we discover that that’s not the best way to construct it in Camp Lejeune, it should be a little bit different. So we’ll use the ones in Japan as kind of the test bed, we’ll learn from that. The other two parts of the Fleet Marine Force will watch, will observe, and then we’ll figure out how they ought to be constructed, and it could be the same or it could be different.”
Read the entire article (link at the top). Once you've done that then come back and let's play a quarantine game.

Everytime the Commandant says "learning" or "figure out" or "adjust" or "not as confident" take a shot of Jack Daniels or your favorite drink (gotta be alcohol to make it funny).

If you're not buzzed then you're an alcoholic and I recommend you get help. 

Seriously though.

Do you remember The 3 Block War?  Do you remember Ship To Objective Maneuver?

They all made sense.  They were all figured out.  They all were clearly defined, had the support of everyone involved because they made SENSE and we knew what weapon systems were needed before it was rolled out.

We're on a path where we keep getting these concepts that are being instituted on the run, change constantly and have the hallmark of leadership saying that they need to learn more while they're trying to sell it to the Corps.

For the love of all that's Holy can we please take a beat and get ourselves sorted out?  Take the time to flesh this thing out from A to Z and back again.  Test it in simulations.  Test it in the field.  And then once you've done all that come back with a plan that you can believe in and you are beyond learning whether or not it works, have full confidence in and know what we need to buy/organize to win on future battlefields.

Ever since Amos the Commandant's office has been seriously adrift.  I don't know what's going on but it needs to get its bearing before it wrecks a great organization.

As things stand now I'm sure of only one thing.  There is no clarity in the Marine Corps.  We have taken unwarranted criticism and institutionalized it.  Amos used it as a talking point to get his airplane and for some reason its become ingrained in the officer corps...especially the flag officer club.  I don't understand it but they truly believed that second Army bullshit and took it to heart.

So what will the future be?  I'm betting the end of the Marine Corps.  We won't do forcible entry.  Berger doesn't even talk about it.  We definitely won't be able to assist the Army if another Desert Storm type situation arrives.

So what will we have?  Airplanes, missiles and tiltrotors.  The Navy can take our planes.  The Army can do the missile work and I guess the Coast Guard can use our tiltrotors.

Berger is laying the groundwork for the end of the Marine Corps.

31st MEU conducts maritime strike full mission profile....pics by Lance Cpl. Colton Garrett




An AH-1Z Viper helicopter with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 265 (Reinforced), 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), fires an AIM-9M sidewinder missile at a maritime target during a live fire exercise. During the exercise, the attack helicopters took off from San Antonio-class dock landing ship USS Green Bay (LPD 20) in order to protect the amphibious task force from a simulated maritime threat. The America Expeditionary Strike Group, 31st MEU team, is operating in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with allies and partners and serve as a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Colton K. Garrett)

So the Marine Corps IS using the AIM-9M Sidewinder in the maritime attack role!  Nicely Done!  I also see that they're carrying extra fuel tanks.  So by the pics I guess we're seeing the Viper sharpening its teeth to go after small ships in addition to boats?  One thing I'm not getting.  Why not go with a bigger, dedicated anti-ship missile?  I know its obsolete now (at least I think it is) but the Sea Skua or even the more modern Sea Venom would seem to be what the doctor ordered.

UNLESS the sidewinder has longer range.  I don't know enough about its capabilities in this role to say one way or the other.  Definitely need to learn more.

Open Comment Post. 4 Apr 2020


Friday, April 03, 2020

Let's have real talk about this Covid-19 crisis....

I made the mistake of watching MSNBC last night and to be honest I was a bit shocked by what many of the commentators were calling for.  Going off the top of my head but here are their current talking points/suggestions...

1.  We need to have a coronavirus czar.
2.  We need to have a mandatory nationwide stay at home order.
3.  We need to do stay at home right.  People need to be locked up if they violate the order and they need to make it stick.
4.  They're saying that we need to coordinate research.
5.  They say if we're lucky we might be finished with this by June.

That's just off the top of my head but you get the point.

They expect us to be in this situation for a protracted period of time.  One reader suggested pretty much the same (only longer).

I can tell you without doubt or hesitation that if he is right we're fucked.  Proper fucked.  If they're right we're still fucked.

Am I wrong in thinking that if we were to ask our fellow citizens to persist in this condition even till June we would be facing practical anarchy?

From my seat it is beyond the pale to imagine them even asking us to do so.

So what's my plan?

Simple.  Identify the hot spots.  If you want to go hard then go hard in those places.  They're easily identified to.  New York City.  New Orleans.  In essence the major metropolitan areas are the places where we're seeing this wildfire burn.

If we concentrate our resources on the places that are on fire then we will better deal with this problem.  Right now we're scattered.  Instead we should be focused.  That means instead of trying a nationwide stay at home you enforce it strictly in the places where this virus is raging.

You enforce a strict stay at home policy.  No travel policy.  No parks.  No going out at all.  You use police and the National Guard to enforce it.

But forget what I think. 

What do you guys think.  Can our country survive being under this type of shut down for such an extended time?  Can we make it going past May?

Side note.  I despise medical experts for one thing.  They immediately reached for the Chinese solution and did not consider that we don't operate under their system.  To ask US citizens to "stay home" and not make a gainful living for months?  Its a bridge too far.  Its completely foreign to our culture and was bound to fail from the start.  This is the main problem with scientist being placed in charge of policy.  They don't take into account the human part of the equation so their policy solutions always fail. 

New York City is the hot zone in the US? Well they're not following the stay at home order!

Check out Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Report here.




Google.

Google has decided to turn their "tracking" service (I say that tongue in cheek) toward keeping track of the public and seeing how many are obeying the stay at home orders and how many aren't.

I don't know how many people use Google Tracker (God knows I'm turning mine off now) but this is what they came up with for the state of New York.  They break it down by county so we can see how New York City is doing below...


My point in all this?  First.  Google has once again disappointed me.  I guess you can make the claim that this is for the greater good.  I'm conflicted on this.  If they'll release this information into the wild then what are they doing that we never see.  Additionally (yeah its conspiratorial) but I can't help but wonder how closely ALL of us are being monitored by forces unknown.

We all love our phones but we have in essence equipped ourselves with tracking and listening devices....WILLINGLY!

Next.  I wonder how wise this stay at home order is when it comes to fighting this disease.  At least the American version of it.  From my chair, with the new information coming out, and a small sampling of people I work with - family - associates, we've all had some kind of sniffles, allergies etc...since this hit.

Now we hear that the coronavirus can hit you and you might not get knocked to your knees?  That you could get this thing, pass it on and never even know you had it?  Completely asymptomatic?

Perhaps the Brit Health Ministry were onto something when they wanted to go for herd immunity.

In hindsight did we get the best possible response from govt or did we all fall prey to an exercise in control?

Regardless.  We might not be going to work.  We might not be hanging out at home more.  But we're hardly shut in.

Maybe the Chinese model just isn't the right one for us.  This will come again.  Maybe we should try and determine a better way of dealing with the next one.  God knows shutting down the economy and asking people to stay home definitely appears to be sub-optimal.

U.S. Marines with 1st Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division post security to secure U.S. Navy USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) in Los Angeles



Berger was quick to bounce Marine Corps Military Police, excuse me, Law Enforcement Battalions, from their role in this national drama and from the roster of the "new" Marine Corps.

1/4 is providing security to the Mercy?

Renaming themselves Law Enforcement Battalions, not finding an enduring role in the missions in the war on terror and not emphasizing (like Army MP's have) their wartime roles doomed them.

The weird/awesome thing?

1/4 will get it done and not miss a beat.

One last, quick thing for all you supporters of the fired carrier CO...

I notice people are still rallying to this guys side in this little drama playing out.

But have you clowns not noticed something?

No other Navy is talking about coronavirus cases on their ships.  Not a single one.  Think about that!  No one else is talking about an infected crew and how they need to get them off the ship to save lives.

Not the Russians.

Not the Chinese.

Not the Brits, French, Italians, Spaniards, Dutch, Indians, Singaporeans, Australians, Malaysians, etc.....

NO ONE!

I'm repeating myself but we can pretty much figure that outbreaks have occurred on a few of our allies ships.  We can even figure that we've had outbreaks on other ships of our own fleet...from Amphibs to Subs and everything inbetween.

The reason why?

Because our allies are running professional forces that will not broadcast something that is a danger to their national security.  Most of our ship's captains are professionals too and would never do what this bubba did.

So why are you still defending him?

Easy.

Because its the popular thing to do.  I cringe at all the so called military professionals that are lauding this guys behavior instead of slamming him like a piece of cold meat.

A few of the pros that are putting him on a pedestal are doing it for political reasons.  They're never-Trumpers that can only see a future in the Republican party if Trump is not re-elected.  If he gets another term then they're has-beens.  Its do or die for their professional careers as consultants.

The others?

Sticking a finger in the wind and picking the popular position so they can look cool at cocktail parties.

Either way I am unimpressed.  When everyone says that wrong is right it doesn't take courage to plant your feet and say no.  It just takes commonsense.

F-4 Phantom from VF-151 about to crash into the water due to torn off front landing gear. USS Coral Sea, 1970


Think I see a parachute in the distance.  Wonder how much time they had to react.  That thing is in full afterburner too.

Drama queen send off for ship's capt shows the lunacy of this situation...



Are you freaking seeing this?  Dude is being lauded for falling on his sword to save the crew from the coronavirus and look at that vid!

Sailors from all ratings and depts gathering around, mingling, shouting and spreading the virus that they're so deathly afraid of instead of TRYING to adopt some sort of mitigation efforts at sea.

Now do you see the reality of this thing.

The more I look at the actions of this skipper the more I realize that this was some type of grandstand for some reason I don't yet understand.

Conspiracy theory?  Yeah.  But look at the pic and then think about what we're being told to believe.  Brave captain, loved by his crew, defied leadership and got the story out about how he was worried about his sailors and how they were doing nothing.

Then look at the vid above again.

Some of you people are being played.