Europe is getting rocked by the Coronavirus...how long before WHO declares the obvious?

#BREAKING Germany says coronavirus cases top 1,000 pic.twitter.com/QSOoGkgTXj

— AFP news agency (@AFP) March 9, 2020

#Updated The tally of confirmed cases of #COVID19 in #Germany has risen to 1,112, local media quoted Robert Koch Institute. #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/lK30JgRmzg

— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) March 9, 2020

WHO can quit delaying and declare this thing a pandemic.  Wall Street and the rest of the world's markets are acting on this info.

Question.

Do you have a recession proof job?  Do you have a job that is "essential"?  If not you better start active planning for possible layoffs.  If you do then you probably should do the same.

This is getting to a point that I didn't expect.  I wonder how bad this first wave will be, cause I'm almost certain that there will be a second more lethal wave.

Did you know that there are two strains of this thing in the wild?  Everyone is talking number of deaths but its more nuanced than that.  What is the fatality rate for each of the strains?

If one or the other is responsible for the deaths that we're seeing then we could be looking at an extremely lethal vector.

Erdogan humiliated in Russia...

#Putin shows Erdogan who is the Boss. Makes him and his entire entourage wait outside the door. See the timer ticking 😂😂 @AirForceReviews @FriendsofPutin @PutinThe @peterpobjecky @need_history @DPRKJones @DoveSyriana @IdaratL @Leopard212 @VinodDX9 @su35thunder2 @JarritaLT pic.twitter.com/RqWwb8yNSG

— Sukhoi Su-57 Felon 🇷🇺🇮🇳 (@I30mki) March 9, 2020

Amazing.  Optics are important in diplomacy and the optics here are terrible for the Turkish leader.

How do you recover from something like this?

I bet his advance man is sentenced to jail for 10 years or more for not sniffing this out.

Really XFL? Community spread of the coronavirus and you have an almost full stadium for a game?

This is why we will see the worst case scenario for the coronavirus.  This time I think we can lay some of the blame at the feet of the federal govt.  I can understand not wanting to incite a panic but damn it!  Common sense precautions should be part of the response.

The NBA is discussing playing games without fans in the stands.  The NCAA is talking about having the basketball tournament without fans in the stands. 

So what does the XFL do this weekend?

They hold football games with people in the stands!

Even the Pope didn't do that for his Sunday address (note that it was at the request of the Italian govt).

Time for the experts to step up and prevent this thing from going sideways. I don't want a Chinese response but unless we're smarter then that's gonna be what we're left with.

A little pain now will save alot of pain later.

Coronavirus and Xi Jinping’s Many Failures

via Real Clear Defense.

While the coronavirus consumes the headlines, when we consider how China's leader handled the crisis, we can see larger pattern of behavior that reveals a consistent pattern of failure, whether in trade negotiations, decreased economic growth even before the COVID-19 outbreak, the global attention centered on the Muslim "re-education camps" in Xinjiang, to the suppression of democracy in Hong Kong and violation of its treaty commitments to the U.K.  2019 was a year of major failures for Xi's CCP.

The result of this cumulative failures is that Xi's leadership is maladroit for the Chinese Communist Party and too reckless for China and the world. While these failures reflect poorly on Xi's rule, the miscarriages have two consequences for China's relationship with the rest of the world.

First, the failures are going to derail the image Xi's China seeks to convey to the Chinese people and to the world.  The CCP under Xi has launched an ideological assault on the rest of the world via the "China Dream" strategic narrative.  This is Xi's attempt to move China toward a confident and greatly elevated position can be seen in Xi's statements on the "China Dream," particularly its emphasis on "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" and developing "socialism with Chinese characteristics." The core of Xi's message is the belief that the Chinese model of global governance is superior to the status quo established by the West, particularly the Anglo-Americans at the end of World War II and in its aftermath.

Here. 

Lovely.  Many believe that the rise of China is inevitable but history shows us otherwise.  China has rose and fell many times and I believe it will fall again. The question is whether or not we can contain it so that this time is like the past.  It simply falls upon itself and doesn't consume the West along with it.

I believe we can IF WE'RE SMART.  If we act in time.  Love him or hate him but on this issue Trump is right.  He fell short in his negotiations (stymied in his approach by business interest and so called foreign policy experts) but at least he tried.

The coronavirus might do what we failed to do.  Italy has almost half their country on lockdown.  We're headed to an outcome that will see major metropolitan areas brought to their knees.

This might  prove to be painful but it will be illuminating to the business class. Just in time delivery and depending on China for manufacturing will finally prove to be unsustainable.

That's probably the one thing we can cheer about this trainwreck.

An AH-1Z Viper helicopter lands on the flight deck of USS Green Bay...Pic by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Vincent E. Zline

Norwegian F-35s intercepted Russian Tu-142 and Mig-31...anyone have more info on this incident?

F-16s from Bodø and F-35s from Ørland were Saturday scrambled for NATO to meet a pair of Russian Tu-142s and a MiG-31. This is first time Norway's new F-35s meet the Russians in air. https://t.co/XkA7EUROZY pic.twitter.com/IadJeK8nTL

— The Barents Observer (@BarentsNews) March 8, 2020

This one is interesting.  The F-35 was sent to intercept Russian Tu-142s and a Mig-31?

I'm intrigued.  We know the Mig-31 can fly higher and is faster than the F-35. Additionally (and I could be wrong) the Mig-31 carries missiles that can fly farther and are again faster than the ones carried by the F-35.

The wild card in all this?  How stealth would have played a role in the interceptor mission.  Could the F-35 "sneak" up on the intruder aircraft? Would it have rendered Russian countermeasures null and void because of its stealth characteristics?

The article is light on facts but we do know the F-35 carried gear to make it illuminate on radar so maybe this is nothing but a propaganda show and nothing more.  I just don't know.

Su-57 internal weapon bay compared to other 5th Gen Fighters around the World

Su-57 internal weapon bay compared to other 5th Gen Fighters around the World !!! @AsianDef @AditiIndiaFirst @Ninja998998 @AiswaryaRvr @Combat_Journal @slackwyrm @Hiran06658607 @Zoniman @HHueara @Sukhoi57kogasa @Leopard212 @saptak__mondal pic.twitter.com/iIiK7os7q9

— Sukhoi Su-57 Felon 🇷🇺🇮🇳 (@I30mki) March 8, 2020

All these bays look like they're tailor made to a particular weapon type.  Pylons will obviously have to be used for any advancement in missile tech that results in larger missiles than we have today.

From my chair that looks like a vulnerability that's been built into every "5th" gen fighter.

Coronavirus "best guess epidemiology" is grim as hell...

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

vs flu in 2019:

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n

— Seth Bannon 👨‍🔬 (@sethbannon) March 7, 2020

Not sure I buy these numbers.  But if we assume them to be accurate then we will be knocked to our knees.  Our healthcare system will break.  Our economy will shatter.  Hell we can practically predict with almost certainty that we (and the world) will be plunged into a great depression type scenario.

Politics Talk. The complaint by some women of sexism in the Dem contest is puzzling...

Women are calling bullsh*t on the American electorate after Elizabeth Warren’s campaign proved, yet again, that sexism is alive and well in U.S. politics pic.twitter.com/1PWU5mCbM7

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) March 8, 2020

I don't understand this.  I've been watching the Dem contest and this complaint by some women is just batshit crazy.  No way Biden could have won big on Super Tues without the support of women.  So if a majority of women supported either Biden or Sanders and not Warren then how is the electorate sexist?

This complaint doesn't seem valid yet I've heard it for the past week.  WTF is going on in the news media????

Open Comment Post. 8 Mar 2020

British Police are fining people that submit to facial recognition cameras...

Welcome to the future...

The Met Police set up live facial recognition cameras in east London. One passerby who didn't want to have his face scanned and so covered up his face was issued a £90 fine.#bbctbq pic.twitter.com/S7Lt6oMApV

— paulusthewoodgnome (@woodgnomology) March 8, 2020

Wow.  Outside of China, the Brits have the most extensive surveillance system of their citizens in the world. 

But what is the payoff for all this high tech spying?  Mega information and still the inability to stop crime.

At the end of the day it just doesn't seem worth it. 

Every election year their is an outbreak?

A friend shared a very interesting post from #Berlin just now. #Corona pic.twitter.com/XkzFTL7YYq

— Anna Ahronheim (@AAhronheim) March 7, 2020

This post is borderline pushing a conspiracy theory.  I see it differently.  For better or worse the world is and has been under assault by various diseases for a couple of decades now.

Globalization is a prime mover of disease from impoverished areas (or that have unique diets) to the rest of us.

Scientists have said that we're overdue for a pandemic and if by some miracle from God we dodge the Coronavirus then it'll be a different big bad.

I'm starting to believe that this is gonna be our life for at least the next 20 years.

We're gonna get hit by a super bug...either from nature or man...but its coming.

Nordic Combat Uniform...

Skulle bli väldigt förvånad om uniformen på bild nr4 kan hävda sig mot övriga, detta sagt utan att ha sett övriga delar av det systemet... https://t.co/nMTgWzPFbu pic.twitter.com/7OC8bZjS8t

— HenrikJ (@nHenrikJ) March 7, 2020

I'm partial to the one you see above.  I don't know how it works if you load the pockets down but if its still usable filled up then you can practically carry a first and almost full second line of gear on your person.  that would be huge.

Also find it fascinating that they're apparently going with a solid flat earth color instead of some type of camo.  I think that's gonna be the trend going forward. 

I'm anxious to see how this plays out.

More info here.

Chinese Communist Party is the greatest threat to security not only in the Pacific but around the world...

#WEST2020 “The Chinese Communist Party poses the greatest threat to security, not just in the Indo Pacific but around the globe. Their approach is pernicious and uses coercion often undermining sovereignty and threatening stability.” - Admiral Davidson, US INDO PACIFIC Commander pic.twitter.com/8mvlr1KDal

— Paul Becker (@BeckerT3Group) March 3, 2020

Welcome to the party pal.  Took you long enough to see the obvious!

Irish Guards Number 2 Company, currently deployed on Operation Shader in Iraq, conducting a "March & Shoot" Competition...

Martlet LMM on Wildcat remains on schedule to enter service in 2021

Martlet LMM on Wildcat remains on schedule to enter service in 2021 pic.twitter.com/r9jAX1QoJH

— NavyLookout (@NavyLookout) March 7, 2020

Coronavirus is hammering Iran & will this change buying behavior forever?

Iran says 21 more people have died from the coronavirus, bringing the country's death toll to 145. More than 1,000 infections were also confirmed overnight totaling some 5,823 cases nationwide. https://t.co/9T26C6AhcS

— The Associated Press (@AP) March 7, 2020

Iran is getting hammered and we can pretty much assume that its just the tip of the iceberg.

Question.

Will this virus change buying behavior forever?  We're seeing (as predicted) the acceleration of "avoiding crowds" which means that malls and major sporting events are taking a hit (have you seen reports of empty soccer fields in Europe and in the US basketball games without spectators happening) but will it extend to big boxes like WalMart?

My guess is that the thrill has already faded with regard to those places anyway.  You can get a better viewing experience at home when it comes to sporting events and as far as the malls are concerned they should have died long ago.

As far as big boxes I kinda expect a return to neighborhood stores to rule the day.

Not really sure because I don't study consumer spending behavior but I can't imagine that something like this will hit (and I think it will comeback fiercer than ever this fall) and not affect society.  Sept 11th did in a major way and I believe this will be just as important in our nation's history (maybe even more because more Americans will be affected...this ain't gonna be a spectator event).

The US Army and NORTHCOM is WELL PLACED (much to my surprise) to deal with the Coronavirus...

Thanks to UtahBob62 for the links.

Full disclosure.

I like to chest thump because I fully believe that SNAFU! was one of the first military blogs to grab hold of the coronavirus story in China and sound the alarm.

Additionally I believe we were among the first to predict that this thing would go worldwide and that it would be declared a pandemic.  We made the call a couple of weeks ago and continue to marvel that the WHO hasn't (although the economic considerations are most definitely the reason why....I've seen a few conspiracy theories that if this were declared a pandemic that the world could actual tip over into a depression).

What I got wrong was the fact that I didn't think the US military was properly positioned to deal with an incident of this magnitude.  I truly believed that they were as unprepared as the rest of the govt agencies/public.

Thankfully I was wrong.  Check out these links that UtahBob62 posted....

https://www.northcom.mil/Newsroom/Article/563326/usnorthcom-prepares-for-possible-pandemic/

https://www.northcom.mil/Newsroom/Article/563108/northern-command-tests-homeland-defense-civil-assistance-capabilities/

https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-849

https://www.northcom.mil/Newsroom/Article/563938/us-army-north-indiana-dhs-announce-exercise/

https://www.usamriid.army.mil/

https://www.usamriid.army.mil/newsroom.htm

We hear the slogans and give them a slight chuckle.  Ready to fight tonight. America's force in readiness.  Most ready when the nation is least ready.

Well for the first time in a long time I'm actually encouraged.  The Army has been working on this for a long time (oldest link goes back to 2003).  NorthCom has picked up the mantle and I'm sure Navy and Air Force medicine are in on the game too.  It goes beyond the Docs though.  This type of planning means that a portion of the total force is ready to lend a hand.

There is much danger in the coronavirus threat.  

But there is also opportunity.  Not only for local govt/first responders to step up (as usual for first responders) but also for the US military to demonstrate their value to everyday citizens.

It's morbid to say but if this thing goes south it could be the biggest recruiting/budget boost the US military ever saw....if they perform to my expectations that is.

Massive blow to the UK Tempest Fighter Project...Japan's next-gen fighter to be built with US, not UK

via Nikkei

Japan plans to choose the U.S. as its partner for developing the successor to the F-2 fighter jet, while taking on most of the R&D costs to avoid leaving essential design information solely in American hands again, Nikkei has learned.

Tokyo was weighing the U.S. offer against a U.K. proposal that would have guaranteed it the freedom to update the new planes at will. But ultimately, it decided to stick with its top ally given that their security ties have significantly expanded in scope in recent years. An official decision will made within this year.

"Ensuring we can freely modify and upgrade [the new jets] in the future is extremely important," Defense Minister Taro Kono said. Japan's inability to freely update the F-2 has limited the usability of much of its fleet. 

Not sure how much I buy the part about not being able to freely upgrade the F-2.  Maybe it was part of the push to sell the F-35 but the way the US govt is allowing F-16s to still be sold I'm just not buying it (at least until I get more info).

Regardless this is a massive blow to the UK's Tempest Fighter Program.  Understandable though.  The UK can make moves to get involved in the Pacific but at the end of the day they're a European power and have a natural bias toward the Atlantic, not the Pacific.

Combat Camera Showreel 2019 – Finnish Defence Forces